>>513734446 (OP)>Russia rapidly advances until KievWon't happen.It would still be a very fast crawl due to military doctrine, bad experience of 2022 and slow reaction to events by our generals.
But in case of total collapse of Ukrainian army, Western politicians would probably make a deal with Putin quite fast. Putin would get slightly more than current pissdeal (4 oblasts and Crimea legal recognition, no Ukraine in NATO and demilitarization of Ukrainian army from its current capabilities and allowed numbers). I think it could be the only scenario in which we get those seized 300 billion dollars back since otherwise I doubt we will ever get to see them back even if we somehow commit and do total victory, post-war occupation of the Ukraine entirety etc.
In case of rapid loss West will also shift the blame between each other for few years before deciding to blame Zelensky in the end just like it happened in Georgia.