There is an art of the deal but it's not Trump's
>For ExxonMobil, regaining access to the project might revive its $500 billion Arctic exploration deal with Rosneft lost after the first sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. This deal would increase environmental risks in polar regions.
>For Russia, restoring Sakhalin-1 to full production, about 220,000 barrels a day, could generate billions of dollars in new revenue for Moscow. It would strengthen Russia’s economy and allow for the continued war of aggression. Oil and gas provide almost a third of Russia’s state revenue and more than 60% of exports. If sanctions are lifted, Sakhalin-1 revenues would support Russia’s war budget, paying for more drones, missiles, and troops. Sanctions relief would reduce Russia’s dependence on China and India buying discounted crude since 2022.
>An additional 220,000 barrels a day would also impact global prices. Western oil companies might follow ExxonMobil’s lead if Washington signals a green light. Europe would then face pressure: stay aligned with US policy or risk losing competitiveness. Diplomatically, if the US moves to ease sanctions, it could fracture Western unity further, benefiting the Kremlin.
>For Russia, restoring Sakhalin-1 to full production, about 220,000 barrels a day, could generate billions of dollars in new revenue for Moscow. It would strengthen Russia’s economy and allow for the continued war of aggression. Oil and gas provide almost a third of Russia’s state revenue and more than 60% of exports. If sanctions are lifted, Sakhalin-1 revenues would support Russia’s war budget, paying for more drones, missiles, and troops. Sanctions relief would reduce Russia’s dependence on China and India buying discounted crude since 2022.
>An additional 220,000 barrels a day would also impact global prices. Western oil companies might follow ExxonMobil’s lead if Washington signals a green light. Europe would then face pressure: stay aligned with US policy or risk losing competitiveness. Diplomatically, if the US moves to ease sanctions, it could fracture Western unity further, benefiting the Kremlin.
