Thread 514163708

>>514163708 (OP)
rogoff a kike name?

>could
one of a million nothingburger articles stoking fear over complicated shit because it leaves a void of information that they exploit to feign being saviors and in the interest of the reader when in reality it's just bullshit that never comes true with no consequences to the author except building their career and the reader being fatigued and stressed over irrelevant information portrayed as an incoming catastrophe.

There is no international trade without the USA allowing it by not actively sabotaging the just-in-time supply chain. All nations must be on board for the just-in-time supply chain to function. Any disruption no matter how small is catastrophic. One bad actor can ruin it for everyone.

>>514163708 (OP)
As long as we control global shipping routes, and keep piracy on the open sea suppressed, the US is never going to wither and die. Global free trade is enabled by the American NAVY, and any eurotrash that thinks otherwise is delusional.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IN THIS MATTER.

>>514164036
lmao cope harder

>>514163708 (OP)
The dollar has been in a slow motion collapse since 2020, it’s a long ways down but it will probably drag the entire west down with it

>>514164604
You don’t think the USA could sabotage international shipping to disrupt the just-in-time supply chain?

>>514163708 (OP)
Um, excuse me, sweaty, but Biden told me there was no inflation.

>>514164823
Can isn’t the same thing as will.

>>514163708 (OP)
Yes, two...more....centuries, roach.

>>514165387
Yeah, the USA doing something underhanded? That’ll never happen!

>>514164604
>>514165387
You gays do realize that covid was the dry run for this?

>>514163708 (OP)
>rogoff
my merchant sense is tingling

>>514163825
of course

>>514163708 (OP)

Its already happening. Steaks cost like $40. They've manged to keep the price of gas lower than other prices through some sort of manipulation.

>>514163708 (OP)
USD is worse than a shitcoin at this point.
If you're a mutt mortgage your home, max out credit cards and take the biggest possible debt and move to South East Asia. Only way to survive what's coming. With these loans and whatever assets you have you can live easily until the end of your life without any work required.

>>514166158
I just bought 2 filets for $17. Youre retarded

>>514166555
>>514166158
Here steak is expensive and costs around 40$ per kg. Is this a lot more expensive than in USA?

>>514164604
There are states in the U.S. with a larger GDP than Finland.

>>514166555
No you didn't. Fuck off.

>>514163708 (OP)
>long term
Try 3-5 years.

>>514166158
EV’s are more common overseas thus reducing the demand for oil. Once everyone else is off the oil tit, it’s possible the supply will quickly dwindle driving the price of oil up. For now, supply exceeds demand.

>>514163825
He's not wrong though. America is literally destroying its own powerbase to siphon as many pennies from the poor as possible.

>>514163708 (OP)
>could

>>514163708 (OP)
Gonna be funny. It'll be bad for americans but the whole world will get fucked worse than americans. Without American money financing everything, "free Healthcare" ceases to exist everywhere.

>>514166841
>around 40$ per kg. Is this a lot more expensive than in USA?

Not really depending on the cut of beef. Ribeye a premium steak can cost more than $30 a pound in the US which is $67 /kilo

>>514163708 (OP)
How many years has the ballooning US debt threatened to sink America now? 30? 40?

As long as the goycattle continue working harder, investing everything they make back into the system, and growing the GDP as fast as the money supply, this shit can continue until infinity.

>>514163708 (OP)
>could
womp womp

>>514167679
I got a cooked beef ribeye steak for $4.99/lb the other day at my local supermarket. It was pretty good.

>>514163708 (OP)
>>514164032
>>could
Not likely

I so glad I not American soon all white will be poor like Philine man and go home like dog

>>514163825
>>514167450
New book

>>514163825
Do you even need to ask

>>514163708 (OP)
lol. Fucking delusional browns cry themselves to sleep every night thinking about the fall of the US.

Deflation would be worse, but US could bounce back even from that. China is beyond deflation right now, there is no word for what the bug peopke are doing.

>>514163708 (OP)
any lost decade could have been prevented with a normal healthy recession 10 years ago instead of keeping the numbers going up at any cost

>>514163825
when you’re ready, you won’t need to ask

>>514163708 (OP)
They’re phasing it out for the new digital dollar that they have complete control of

>>514164032
>stoking fear over complicated shit
It's not actually complicated, when you break out the core elements:
1.US Tariffs, in the method by which they are being implemented, is a GODDAMN TAX upon Americans. They will not be able to consume at the same Level, which is a fucking big problem when you are discussing Basic Necessities.

2. Foreign Producers (and nations) are NOT going to tolerate the "export" of US inflation any longer. They will RAISE their Prices, so as not to subject their Workers to our exported inflation, which will further damage the American consumer.

3. Trump and the Treasury will NOT apply a penny of CBP revenues towards Infrastructure or any other beneficial public subsidy to enable US Manufacturing to be rebuilt.

4. US Manufacturers CANNOT even come close to the foreign pricing, and thus this exacerbates 1 and 2 above.

It's a certain collapse that's ahead.

>>514164036
Tell that to the Houthis

>>514164032
yes migger, we know your bullshit

>>514166981
there are no states whiter than finland though

>>514163708 (OP)
Is he friends with Zeihan?

>>514171235
There are parts more Finnish than Finland though
https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suomi_kutsuu,_Finland_Calling

>>514169991
Battleships and aircraft carriers are obsolete, the future of naval warfare will be very small vessels armed with drones. The USA will be arming pirates with such equipment and the just-in-time supply chain will be broken indefinitely. Any country that isn’t self sufficient in oil, fertilizer, and food is doomed.

>>514163708 (OP)
TWO MORE WEEKS hahahahahaha

>>514163708 (OP)
they will make sure to bring every country with them.
literally: "crab mentality", the country,

>>514163708 (OP)
Trump's schizophrenic economic policy has basically guaranteed an American century of humiliation

>>514163708 (OP)

Corpo media ignored the debt completely for four years under Biden and for another 20 years prior to that. Now suddenly they give a shit.

They're not wrong now of course; but the only reason they care now is because of Trump. They were happy to watch the country go off a cliff before and if the political establishment gets back in power they'll go right back to pretending everything is okay all the way up to the point we go over the cliff.

>>514174218

Nigger the debt was $36 TRILLION before Trump's current term. This isn't a new problem.

>>514163708 (OP)
Poobear dreams of this every night but then he wakes up and the reality is the opposite lmao

Was it worth it
All to suck Israel’s dick
What a shit investment

>>514174621
It's pretty clear the world was willing to let it slide because there was a pretty good thing going. So the US could have had 10-20 years even to wrangle it's finances to a more sustainable level.

But then Trump decides to declare a trade war against the entire world because he simply thinks trade is bad, which has already changed the calculus.

>>514163708 (OP)
Postponing 2008 wasn't such a smart move after all. They're now caught between a massive debtor dying and a wage inflation spiral. Both mean hyperinflation. It's only a matter of time before the jews start nationalizing their bankrupt companies.

>>514174688
lmao

>>514174765
>It's pretty clear the world was willing to let it slide because there was a pretty good thing going.

Dude you have no clue what you're talking about. Our yearly interest payments on the national debt are over a TRILLION dollars. We spend more on interest on our debt than we do on the military. The only things we spend more on are social security, government pensions medicare and medicaid. Everything aside from those programs combined costs less than the interest on the debt.

The economy was not working well, it wasn't a good thing and it wasn't going to last. We're at best 10 years from the edge of the cliff and nothing that was going on under Biden was changing that.

>>514163708 (OP)
The people who want the dollar to crash are the same people who want manufacturing to come back. A week dollar makes wages lower so capitalist can sell exports cheaper. The market protections and week dollar are part of the pedophile blackmail mafia's plan.

>>514171787
thanks for letting me know about this
gonna watch all of it

>>514163708 (OP)
Thank magats

>>514163708 (OP)
if the US $ loses reserve currency status, the USA basically become Indonesia, but with a cool military

98.999999% of Americans don't understand this

>>514175833
What does that make the European Union? Russia without gas?

>>514163708 (OP)
That's funny, they say the same in the UK. And Germany. And France. What are they preparing? The Great Taking?

>>514175833
>if the US $ loses reserve currency status, the USA basically become Indonesia, but with a cool military
The military cannot be financed without the income from the reserve currency status. The same applies to glowniggers, ngos, hollywood and large parts of silicon valley. These are all tools of the empire that the empire finances.

>>514176460
Since 2008 at the latest, all western central banks have tied themselves to the fed. If the dollar collapses, the entire west collapses. But germany and france at least have industries that will help them get back on their feet more quickly.

>>514177097
>The military cannot be financed without the income from the reserve currency status.

The whole budget of the military is bloated with wasteful spending. I bet you could have an equally effective force for a fraction of it.

>>514177329
>If the dollar collapses, the entire west collapses.

If the dollar collapses, it is going to take the pension funds and insurance companies with it. Those are the ones forced to invest in (((safe))) assets.

>>514171235
Billy Corgan????

>>514163708 (OP)
Ken Rogoff is definitely not promoting this doomsday scenario because Trump is in office

>>514177406
Of course it can. But the transition would be tantamount to a crash. The us military is largely a job creation measure and bureaucracy for the worldwide network of military bases. Vast numbers of people would have to be laid off.

>>514163708 (OP)
GMECHADS RISE UP
WAGMI

>>514163825

he's a grandmaster (chess player)

>>514177329
>But germany and france at least have industries
Sure?

>>514164057
retard

>>514166497
rather be broke almost anywhere than have to live in SEA

>>514178013

The only and obvious victim will be Taiwan of such an event.

>>514174218
USD was cooked in Spring of 2022

>>514164057
free trade? whats that

>>514175450
American manufacturing isn't about exporting you retard

>>514178492
They've suffered. And I'm sure washington will bleed them dry even further before it's over. But a certain industrial base to build on will remain. At least in germany, that is.

>>514170329
You fucking shitlib glowniggers still don't know how tariffs work.

>>514178801
Germany's industrial base is collapsing because it requires cheap energy to be competitive. That's over.

>>514177329
>dollar collapses, the entire west collapses
It's really about the global debt market.
Entire world depends on USD denomination as global default reserve, that means not just dollars but treasuries.
Global bond market has been more volatile and unstable in past 3 years than in half a century, and we have increased global debt to over $330 trillion—a magnitude increase of one-third since the preceding decade. Someone-something has to buy the debt
This system is coming to an end, fast.
When the bond market goes, so goes everything

https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/500310690

>>514177989
No, he's been talking and writing about it for years as have other finance experts and scholars.

>>514178707
If they had allowed 2008 to happen, a kind of great depression would have occurred. But the dollar would probably have survived. But they opted for almost two decades of cheap money policy. Events will accelerate more and more. I'm very curious to see what their next steps will be.

>>514178881
Calm down, commie

>>514178935
Germany has coal for at least 500 years. It's just a question of will.

>>514179229
if they hadn't used their financial infrastructure to enforce political aims the USD would have survived. too late.

>>514177406
>The whole budget of the military is bloated with wasteful spending
You would be legitimately surprised at how expensive certain military materials are. Ships aren't cheap to maintain and keep deployed. Military spending is only 3% of the US GDP.

>>514179337
coal is not price competitive with natural gas

>>514163708 (OP)
>dry up and blow away, america
>t: bibi
the sins of the father pass onto the sons.
there is mercy at Christ's cross, but sin (worshiping israel and the jewish people since WWII) and sin's consequences (the Great Replacement, worthless dollars, stagnant wages, and globalist serfdom) are persistent.

>>514179482
Coal is quite cost-effective. Coal-fired power plants just don't work well as backups to wind and solar, because they can't be ramped up as quickly as gas.
Also russian gas is just a friendly phone call away.

>>514163708 (OP)
>Rogoff grew up in a Jewish family in Rochester, New York.

OPINION

IGNORED

>>514179762
Russia will no longer be selling you gas. You guys would know this if your governments hadn't banned all of their media in your region.

>>514179243
Suck dick, then declare it publicly, fatass.

>>514179337
Germany has dismantled its mining capacity though. It's not something you switch off and then on again.

>>514163708 (OP)
>warning of potential inflationary spiral
>near the end of 2025
lmao

>>514179962
it's also infested with women and fags who would never allow it. realistically it will take 20 years of infighting/political fragmentation to start using german coal to produce goods, by which point they will be decades behind in skills and tech

>>514163708 (OP)
>spiral
>don't bring me down, lariat

>>514163708 (OP)
Well, if you want to avoid a global financial meltdown, the jews could just forgive everyone's debts.
Just saying.

>>514179437
>Military spending is only 3% of the US GDP.

But 20% of the government's revenue.

>>514179862
First, Putin loves Germany, and second, he knows it's an occupied country. Putin has often said that one can talk about renewal at any time. You'd know that if you didn't only consume jewish propaganda.
>>514179962
The German mechanical engineering industry would solve the problem in a short time. The main problem, as it was back then, is the villages above the coal. But as I said, it's just a question of will.

>>514180070
How do you imagine a global crash? Problems of decadence would no longer matter.

>>514178935

Once the US dollar collapses, oil will be dirt cheap, since Americans won't be able to afford it.

>>514180434
In 2022 the US was the 4th largest exporter of oil, with Russia going full retard in Ukraine I wouldn't be surprised if we are second behind the Saudi's now.

>>514180548

True, but it is owned by private companies who will happily sell it abroad for some extra shekels.

>>514180434
The US has enough oil to last a very long time, canada has even more and its the heavier grades more suitable for making diesel and jet fuel. "proven reserves" are maybe 10% of whats actually in the ground because thats just what they can extract and sell at current prices.

>>514167252
What do they charge the batteries with?

>>514180548
You still import more than you export. You're the second-largest importer after China.

>>514180257
You're very out of date. Things have changed within Russia the past three years. You Eurofags have proven to be very bad customers. It's over and they will not be involved with you going forward - too much of a liability and too many headaches. good luck with the foreign invasions, Russian army won't bail you out this time.

>>514180703
USA imports some types of energy and petrol products and exports others. The US is self-sufficient in terms of its energy needs. The main issue in Europe is that it is energy poor and must import.

>>514163708 (OP)
This shit gets floated every week in finance papers because old school economists don't understand the idea of deficit spending. Deficit on social programs creates private equity which in turn creates taxable revenue, so what we're taking out today can be paid with interest because we're overall increasing productivity on our investment (America or whatever country). Why we need debt is to exchange bonds

>>514180728
>he thinks Putin is an idiot
lmao

>>514180703
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

we've actually been a net exporter since late 2019

>>514180854
It's because they're not idiots that they will no longer do things like cheap pipeline gas deals with Europe. you are going to have a very tough reckoning as this plays out. It's unambiguous what path Russia has chosen. You can buy overpriced LNG and second-hand refined Indian oil if you want but the days of supply Europe with cheap pipeline energy from Russia are over. They would be fools to sell you the energy to produce weapons to use against them.

Europe is very fucked.

>>514180882
You imported 6,500,000 barrels of crude oil in 2023.

>>514181020
>>514180882
All crude is not the same. The US imports crude suitable for its refineries, which were mostly built to handle the type of petrol from Venezuela. Guess why we want to knock their government over. We also buy a lot of refined petrol because of this. There is also the question of market timing - export what you can when prices are high and import what you can when it's low.

the real measure is production cost. the USA has relatively high production cost compared to the middle east and Russia. we are middle of the pack energy producer so will never be a powerful exporter without leverage, but we also have no energy insecurity which is more important.

>>514180642
Oil markets are global, a barrel of oil costs the same everywhere. >>514180703
Sort of, its only due to the fact that its cheaper to import the heavier grades that our refineries are tuned for from Canada. With hydrocarbon cracking you can turn any hydrocarbon into any hydrocarbon but it costs money. Synthetic motor oil is made from natural gas which is why it costs more than conventional. We could easily make diesel and jet fuel from light fracked crude, natural gas or even coal but its too expensive to be worth it. Oil will be gradually substituted with alternatives as they get cheaper and oil becomes more expensive although actual energy scarcity doesnt seem to be a limiting factor yet. When I was little all weed eaters and leaf blowers were 2 stroke. Now theyre all electric, only boomers and commercial landscapers use gas ones.
>t.engineer

>>514180833
As long as the eurodollar market can absorb the dollars we print we wont have hyperinflation. Basically it wont matter until it does.

>>514181020
Ya we exported more than we imported.

(((WINNING)))

>>514163825
It is, but the heeb is making a good point here.

>>514163825
He's a faggot who thinks the solution to everything is austerity like some 2000s globalist technocrat.

>>514178881
Holy mother of all MIGA cope pills.
Does your asshole hurt from the size of that MIGA suppository Redpill?

>>514181139
>As long as the eurodollar market can absorb the dollars we print we wont have hyperinflation. Basically it wont matter until it does.
The foreign demand has already collapsed. This process is already three years underway.

>>514180995
Especially from an economic point of view, russia would immediately say yes. China dictates prices at the moment, and russia doesn't know what to do with rupees. But when the american empire disappears from Europe, it's simply a natural connection that will emerge again.

>>514181142
You only exported half as much as you imported.
I'm not claiming that you're not self-sufficient in the energy sector. But at the moment, for whatever reason, you're importing.

>>514181139
>eurodollar market can absorb the dollars we print
Hyperinflation (which affects mostly just the U.S.) isn't the threat or problem.
See above.
Global debt market is on brink of collapse, the problem is (USD-denominated) treasuries

>>514180070
>women and fags
Those are a protective wall. The power structure behind it already decided to deindustrialize Europe.
If they really wanted to, a mix of SMRs and solar+batteries could do it within a decade, perhaps. Says my layman's gut feeling.

>>514180257
>The German mechanical engineering industry would solve the problem in a short time.
They'd be busy building defenses against the rioting foreign mobs and the armed-up criminal clans once welfare runs out.

>>514181273
theres demand for the dollar itself, not just treasuries. theres $300 trillion of global government and international corporate debt and nearly all of it is due in dollars. Average citizens in 3rd world shitholes buy dollars and keep them under the mattress because their own currency is so shitty. Governments dont have the power /pol/ thinks they do. Nobody is going to flush their life savings down the toilet because america bad.

>>514181139
No we literally just need individuals that want to invest into the American economy that's it. As long as the taxable revenue in America goes up proportionate to the debt being accrued we'll be fine. It's just like investing. The problem right now is that these quaky old nigger economists want to implement austere measures which would literally send us into a spiral. why this would happen is because private equity would shrink and could not pay for the debt that we've created.

>>514163708 (OP)
Duh. We've been pushing out the inevitable japanening for decades

>>514181437
The dollar milkshake theory predicts that a shortage of dollars will crash the global debt market. I dont know if were there yet though.

>>514179842
(You) shouldn't ignore Rogoff on the basis of that. He knows exactly what he's analyzing and talking about. (He isn't the only one forecasting along these lines)
Back to the children's table, Bruce

>>514166555

bulllllshhhiitttt

>>514181454
>They'd be busy building defenses against the rioting foreign mobs and the armed-up criminal clans once welfare runs out.
This isn't the usa. In Europe, it's about 5-20%, mostly urban. This is also just a question of will.

>>514167767
But GDP isn't growing as fast as the money supply or the debt

>>514181300
>russia would immediately say yes
this overconfidence is why you guys are in so much trouble. the same arrogance brought you to this moment. I am letting you know that no, they will not. This has been discussed and they've already shifted planning and infrastructure. Europe is a a designated second-tier customer. Only leftovers their preferred clients don't buy are available to Europe, and only at market prices for LNG. The energy situation available in 2021 is over, not coming back in your lifetime.

China doesn't dictate shit. The Russians aren't going to sell themselves out for a nickel and they don't have to. You will also not see European companies return to Russia to produce things like cars - that's over. You will not see the markets reopened for food - that's over. This is all openly discussed in Russia. Clothing manufacturers and such who were cool about shit in 2022 will be able to sell into the consumer market. Almost zero industrialists will regain access, ever.

The 'natural connection' is severed. Russians consider you spiritual poison and they consider your culture to be a net negative. They also figure you will collapse into your own degeneracy (already happening). They want to limit their exposure to you in all arenas. When you build walls on the border to "keep out their invasion" they cheer.

This is new times, swiss fool.

>>514181454
>SMR"s and solar batteries
who builds them? how do you afford to buy them?

>>514163708 (OP)
Is it a good time to get into forex?

>>514181486
>demand for the dollar itself
rapidly unwinding. in practice are already at 50% of the demand that existed three years ago.

the crash is inevitable and therefore they will stave it off by any means possible for as long as possible
but it's still inevitable and the longer it's staved off, the worse and more thorough it will destroy

>>514163708 (OP)

Fuck you.

>>514165387
Tariffs were talked about the same way for the past hundred years of new deal infinite hole digging.

>>514181585
How does one profit on that crash though?

>>514181585
>dollar milkshake
Yes (an incomplete but somewhat useful theory) that is part of it, but (You)'re interpreting the whole picture incorrectly.
Debt aka bonds, have to be bought. They can't go unsold.
That is what is occurring right now, globally. See my posts upthread.
Lack of enthusiasm, sales for the global debt market undermines the entire worldwide economy that is founded upon a single debt note fiat denomination (in treasuries).
Confidence in the bond market rests on confidence in dollar denomination, the U.S.'s ability to stave off total default (predicted by some to be five years or less away) and manage Interest Payments on the sovereign debt which now outstrip federal discretionary spending.

https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/506316301

When the global bond market collapses it all goes, instantly.

>>514181771
This.

>>514181695
You were the ones who forced germany to build lng terminals. One of the most unpopular events in germany ever. You'll see how Nord Stream 2 will be back in operation shortly after you left europe.

>>514181879
Europe will impose capital controls at lightning speed once the Euro starts to crater. Smart Eurofags are already moving their money out of those banks and jurisdictions but the slower ones will be next. Near the final moment there will be a rush. Figure out how they will transfer the money and to where, then front-run. You have about two months.

>>514163708 (OP)
يَمْحَقُ ٱللَّهُ ٱلرِّبَوٰا۟ وَيُرْبِى ٱلصَّدَقَـٰتِ وَٱللَّهُ لَا يُحِبُّ كُلَّ كَفَّارٍ أَثِيمٍ

>>514179243
Canadians sure are good at polishing rods

>>514181879
You don't because the whole global system is founded and rests upon Debt.

>>514181998
Again, you are deeply misinformed and foolish and have out of date information. I am giving you a tip off but you do not have to listen. What I'm saying is true.

>>514181760
>rapidly unwinding
Correct.
this is why some top observers and experts (Ray Dalio, Rogoff etc.) have been sounding alarm recently
Many of us following this stuff closely, have known this since the mid-2010s

>>514181510
The root of the problem is simple, the govt spends twice as much as it makes because of gibs and it prints the difference.
>>514181521
The real economy has been stagnant since 2008, look at industrial output and gdp per capita growth. we are already there. post 2008 growth is just asset inflation.
>>514181660
they actually think that AI will change that, not even kidding
>>514181760
Not unless theyve somehow made that $300 trillion in global debt disappear. It isnt global trade or foreign treasury purchases that create most of the demand for dollars its the global bond market.
>>514181879
Asset prices in the US will rise as foreign capital floods into the US as the world burns so max out your 401k or buy a house.

Who cares if the US "loses power"? That shithole nigger nation starts wars for profit, exploits the west and is the primary reason housing and basics have become super expensive globally. Their corporations are, up front, damaging human civilization itself. Yankfuck deadbeats meanwhile carry on like it's the end of the world. Fuckers are so out of touch it's crazy.

>>514178619
>rather be broke almost anywhere than have to live in SEA
They just made it illegal to be homeless in Weimerica, friendo.

>>514182161
>Not unless theyve somehow made that $300 trillion in global debt disappear. It isnt global trade or foreign treasury purchases that create most of the demand for dollars its the global bond market.

you learned from people who have never lived in a non-USD dominant infrastructure. they are incorrect and you will be as well until you zoom out and understand the structural impacts of a competing financial system.

>>514182025
So that'd leave the UK, Switzerland, some Central/Eastern european nations, Canada, Australia, Japan and the US and Maybe china. They won't go to Russia obviously and most of the rest of the planet would be an even worse choice than staying in Europe.
If the Eurozone goes the EU in general is fucked so you can go ahead and write off anyone in Europe except the UK, Switzerland and Norway (and iceland i guess).
From a financial point of view the US is probably a better investment opportunity at the moment for institutional investors that want hard assets like factories to take equity in due to Trumps tariffs at least keeping investment up to where the CHIPs act had it (it had been starting to fall)

>>514182373
There isnt a competing financial system yet

>>514164793
Since 2008

>>514169643
no foreign country is going to do shit. NOTHING EXCEPT WHINE AMERICA IS THE MOST POWERFUL NATION ON EARTH AND ALWAYS WILL BE NOW COPE, SEETHE OR RAGE, CALL IT

>>514182384
>They won't go to Russia
It's illegal for Europeans to take money to Russia

Yes, the EU is finished. That's the point. But you need to think about logistics. Imagine yourself a Eurofag with two hundred thousand euros in the bank. What do you actually do, as in how? that's how to make money - anticipate that.

>US stock market insanely overvalued
>US national and private debt at unprecedented levels
>US hated by the whole world over tariffs

>>514182436
>There isnt a competing financial system yet
That's where you're wrong. It's easier for you to think of it as an "alternative" to the USD system, but in practice it's a competing one, which Trump et all understand. They do not intend to compete nor do they wish to weaken the USD system the problem is that the USD system is itself only able to function without any alternatives.

>>514163708 (OP)

Then lower rates and deflate, lmao

>academic "expert" writes article
>produces absolutely nothing

if the economy sinks its due to these overpaid parasites, who consume more than they produce

>>514182161
You're citing many of the correct indicators ($330T global debt, 2008-2025 Real Economy stagnancy, Financialized asset inflation 2010s etc.) but are incorrectly comprehending what is going on. Banks (national/regional) are collapsing, so is (not just in U.S.) residential and commersial real estate worldwide. Nowhere else to go, the bond market confidence and stability must be maintained (rn by central banks taking them back onto their balance sheets to prevent yields from rapidly spiking, a palliative measure)
Currency crisis and debt crisis imminent,
Global debt-based economic model is coming to the end of its diving board. This is the big one. It's over


Prescient December 2019 panel (1 month prior to covid/lockdowns) that is worth another watch August 2025, <--in which we now have far worse, expanded magnitude and conditions :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMHQaxd5N-Q

>>514182483
>AMERICA IS THE MOST POWERFUL NATION ON EARTH
ok, now prove it

>>514182541
Given how retarded Euro's are at Fintech i expect they'll convert their money to crypto out of fear

>>514179012
what is a financial expert or scholar?
you either create value, or you dont
tapping out magazine articles doesnt create much value

>>514182541
Who do you think initiated these sanctions? Europe has always just followed. Interbank trading is usd-based. The entire power of your empire is based on it. Fuck, cletus, there are going to be many rude awakenings for you.

>>514181651
>it's about 5-20%
It only takes few drops to ruin the water. A handful of lunchtime rowdies can destroy an entire neighborhood.

>>514181727
>who builds them?
US mostly, some European attempts exist. Don't ask me for details though.
>how do you afford to buy them?
Before the currency collapse or after?

>>514182663
crypto is absolutely the fastest and easiest way to move large quantities over borders, especially if banks are discouraging it through other means. I fully expect a crypto surge in the next few months driven in part by this. You've identified one vector - there are others.

>>514167558
>Without American money financing everything, "free Healthcare" ceases to exist everywhere.
Israel will always have universal healthcare paid for by its Amerigolems.

>>514163708 (OP)
it's fine bro

>>514182722
>it wasn't us, we just did what the Amerijews told us
you can lie to yourself if you want, no one cares. the facts are still that you will not be getting back into the good graces with the Russians.

>>514182541
Switzerland, Monaco, USA, Austrailia, The UK or some other non EU country in europe. My guess would be Switzerland since it has the best reputation and its close enough that europoors can drive there with suitcases full of cash. The big european money will go to America. 70% of norways sovereign wealth fund is invested in the USA. If the EU clamps down really hard the former soviet bloc will be how normies get their money out of the EU since they do all the organized crime already.
>>514182623
There is no competitor/alternative to the dollar yet. the biggest competitor to the usd is the euro
>>514182652
Theyve been saying that for years. If the bond market dies it will be deflationary anyway which is a good thing.

>>514172737
>Battleships and aircraft carriers are obsolete,
Nope
>very small vessels armed with drones.
ROFL
Drones only have an advantage in AA because current AA weapons are designed to take out expensive targets that fly fast and high. Drones are neither. WWII-era AAA guns will come back again as bullets and flak shells are cheaper then drones.

>>514180703
And we are also the largest oil producer the world. The entirety of the 'global economy' was U.S. welfare to the rest of the world

>>514163708 (OP)
USA has in a "lost decade" since 2008. It will get only worse from here on end. It is being carried entirely by economic clout and momentum of the baby boomer. Once they check en mass, the crunch will come in.

>>514182834
You imposed sanctions first. And they're still in effect. And yes, europe has always just followed suit. It's ridiculous that you niggers keep claiming that ww2 and the cold war didn't happen.

>>514181695
>Europe is a a designated second-tier customer.
You are so fucking clueless.
Russia was exporting gas and oil to Europe before the war and getting more revenue than now.

After the war, they had to divert their fossil exports and are selling more to China and India who demanded a discount. So they ended up selling to poorer countries who can pay less than Europe. The result is picrel.

Sure in the meantime some richer Western Euro countries are paying more for energy (Germany), but that's fine. They've enjoyed decades of high living standards using this competitive advantage over the rest of Europe. Now it's their time to go down.

All the big powers will be going down, things are going in the right direction.

>>514167824
the prime rib lunch deal at harris teeter is a low cost leader and not indicative of the actual price of beef

>>514182872
ok now where does the money go

far more transactions are happening outside usd/euro than you seem to believe.

>>514182987
you can cope all you want, the point stands. the Russian business relationship with Europe pre-2022 is over and will not come back. Europe will have to deal with the consequences of that.

>>514182654
you prove it's not true, every single fag talks shit but the U.S. is the defacto planetary ruler of Earth and always will be. Now cope, seethe or rage your choice nigger

>>514182968
You are the largest producers, but also the largest consumers. You consume significantly more per capita than any other region in the world.

>>514182643
>>514182702
None of the 'know' what is going to occur, because the situation the world is in right now (after post-1970s Financialization of the global economy, repeal of Glass-Steagall 1999 etc.) is totally unprecedented in human history.
Most of these people predict an imminent major currency crisis/debt crisis, meaning a collapse of the USD-denomination based global bond market and the default reserve currency denomination comprising almost entirety of that.

Global economy has been in free fall collapse since mid-2019 when the overnight repo crisis began, almost $1T in bailouts for the investment banks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMkq75L5n_k
even Elizabeth Warren was on Capitol Hill "wtf is going on here!?"
Magically though in Jan 2020 along came covid: and with it another $12T in liquidity for the investment banks to continue their black box gigacasino entirely walled off from the Real Economy of goods-services-commodities we subsist in
We are still, right now in the global free fall collapse that began August 2019 (except the global debt is one-third entire magnitude larger than it was back then)

Look up some of the archive.4plebs threads on Federal Reserve, central banks, Financialization (<--use those search terms)

>>514182784
Ah, forgot about that. Another vector is fine artwork and jewelry. You can buy a few $20k rolexes and carry hundreds of thousands of dollars across borders easily. Thats why richfags pay millions for modern art, theyre a way to move money around without being tracked.
>>514183067
Theyre just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic

>>514183027
>CREA
you NATO retards were sharing this horse shit the other night, too. do your realize how quickly we can figure out who CREA is and judge the merits of their work, and the discernment of someone sharing their work? Your script is ten years out of date.

>>514183123
nice cope, once again the entire 'global economy' was U.S. welfare to the world

>>514183067
You will see it.

>>514183085
the strategic alliance of Rusisa-China is stronger than the US financially and militarily. In direct conflict on both fronts for three years the USA has lost, which proves this fact. There is no evidence that it is otherwise. When USA demonstrates that it can defeat this alliance of Russia-China either financially or militarily then we can talk.

>>514163708 (OP)
>Some globalist kike says america is doomed if we dont return to obama are globohomo
Oh wow! This changes everything.

>>514183169
How does this work without industry?

>>514183125
Its the exact same shit that happened in 1929. They decided to go with inflation rather than deflation this time
>>514183169
Its honestly insane how many countries are entirely dependent on remittances from the subhuman filth they dump here.

>>514182483
>AND ALWAYS WILL BE
pure hubris. British empire was unbeatable until it wasn't.

>>514183217
USA is better equipped to handle the fall-out and also invested far less. As a superpower it retains some ability to continue operating even after upsetting other superpowers. Europe does not have this luxury.

>>514182872
>7 pbtid "they've said that for years"
Sorry anon (You) don't have a clue what you're posting about.
USD _is_ the global economy (Real Economy + Financialized speculative debt instrument black box, latter which is where the vast majority of the world's wealth is held) and currency transaction denomination, it's how all debt payments and purchases are made that's why confidence in it must be maintained.

>>514183160
Keep seething Moscow kike
Your empire will be going down in flames and Kavkaz churkas will be dancing on its ruins

>>514183338
>Bloomberg
does the firewall over there let you see anything other than jewish horseshit media?

doing simple math (how much cash does Russia have versus how much does it earn on exporting energy) one can figure out that if they choose to they can go 10 years without making any revenue from energy exports before it materially impacts them.

>>514183259
>exact same
No, anon (You) are wrong and do not comprehend or understand what (You) are posting about. At all

There's zero comparison with '1929' or "muh inflation/deflation"
One major difference between then and now (besides even the currency being debt note): Entire world rests and is founded, reliant upon a single debt note fiat currency denomination, USD. <--That is unprecedented in human history, one of the reasons why even top experts can not predict exactly what is going to happen next, or when
We've never been in this position, ever

>America is booming back
>Let's doom because they're taking away our DEI, USAID and other taxpayer sponsored faggotry
Nah, die and go to hell

>>514182384
Norway and Switzerland become increasingly socialist EU-aligned countries. Switzerland's destiny may depend on UBS not crashing, the culling of Credit Suisse was the last bump before the wall -- so I've heard.

>>514183312
The capital of the british empire financed the rise of the united states, just as the capital of the dutch empire financed the rise of britain. China is next in line.

>>514163708 (OP)
1. The USA is already in a lost decade, since COVID, but the problems started in 2008.
2. This is a total ass-backwards "wet streets cause rain" article. Japan entered it's "lost decade" because America *stopped* letting them devalue their currency. A devalued currency is actually a good thing to make American industry competitive again.
3. Unfortunately it won't happen, because every other country is fucking insane.
You trust Euros? LMAO.
China does not want anybody using Yuan, it would cause China to have a lost decade.
Yen? Not happening, but maybe the runner up. Japan would be big mad.
Rubles? Rupees? LOL.
The best bet to replace USD is unironically Bitcoin.

>>514183333
Why dont they just bring back glass steagall so they cant just straight up gamble with trillions of other peoples money? Its clearly a huge national security risk, why doesnt the government care? bringing the regulations back would cost them nothing and stabilize the financial system.
>>514183523
Its even worse, we went japan mode in 2008. The real economy has been stagnant since then.

>>514183523
>Bitcoin
yeah of course - so decentralized! Saylor has only 3% of the supply! let's see where the rest of the largest holders are...

>>514183515
We are a tiny country that is nevertheless one of the leaders in many industries. Our central bank has invested almost a trillion in the us market. This will break our necks.

>>514183523
The only thing that can prevent near- and medium-term collapse, is the current fiscal + monetary policy prescription of the administration:
>somehow ? get the United States annual GDP growth up from its current anemic ~2% into the 4 or 5 percent range
>this would allow, at least, for the $2T/annum deficits to _barely_ stay ahead of the Interest Payment tsunami that is rn engulfing federal spending
>if that 5% or so GDP growth/annum can not be achieved within the next year to 18 months, U.S. is then headed for total default within half a decade
>Global bond market collapse and plunge in confidence in USD denomination will have already occurred long prior to that

>>514183424
They're very low on cash, they sank more than half of their reserves for 3 years in the war machine.
They're running out of funds to keep spending on the war and even if they had the cash, they couldn't keep the economy overheated much longer, as they have high inflation and credit cost has shot up, killing firms.

The share of federal revenue from oil and gas is about 30%. If Ural crude falls under $45, they will be producing at a loss. Someone will have to pay to keep those jobs alive and there won't be cash. Only solution will be taking the vatniks bank deposits because they won't revolt anyway.

>>514163708 (OP)
The thought of Ackmericans cannibalizing each other gives me a warm fuzzy feeling

>>514183620

See ---------- >>514183754


(Glass-Steagall, that's a rubicon already crossed. No, it should never have been repealed but that ship has sailed, can't go back now)

>>514183831
>>514183754
Thats never gonna happen, I dont even believe that were growing at 2% let alone 5

>>514183904
Concur, and am extremely skeptical that this plan can even be pulled off.
That is why I predict collapse of the global debt (bond) market, probably before end of 2025.

>>514183458
the biggest difference between 1929 is that China is now an economic force.

>>514183776
>They're very low on cash
false

Russia's production costs even out around $20 IIRC. $45 is some kind of weird fantasy. America is closer to $60.

>>514163708 (OP)
Why did you change the name of the article's author? He's a kike btw.

>>514183754
1. GDP growth has nothing to do with debt. It's a bullshit rule of thumb with no economic basis.
2. In fact, the best way to lower the debt and deficit, is to *cause* a recession with tax hikes.
Yes, sufficiently high taxes will cause a recession.
Yes, tariffs are the current compromise, and the media rants about how they might cause a recession.

>>514183904
The only growth the west still generates is through immigration of shitskins and supplying them. But it's really not worth it.

>>514163708 (OP)
in two weeks

>>514184205
three months is a better bet

>>514184079
He knew Fischer.

>>514182643

By that you mean Blackrock, right?

>>514183997
Yes that is but one (1) major difference.
There are many others, most of which have to do with magnitude of financial capital and its role in HNW transactions. And of course (as already explained above) USD's central role in all global economic interactions and transactions, along with falling confidence in the dollar overall, let alone the confidence in global debt market which is required for a global debt-founded economic model.
Most of the world's 21st century wealth isn't stored or held in the Real Economy of goods-services-commodities (<---which it was 100 years ago).
The post-1970s Financialized global economy generates its wealth from myriad speculative debt instruments, and most of that is totally segregated from the Real Economy of goods-services-commodities <--that we sustain ourselves from

The Money Deluge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6m49vNjEGs

97% Owned — How is money created
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcGh1Dex4Yo

>"The real money to be made in the world today is not by producing anything at all. It's simply by forms of speculating — basically making money from money. That's the most profitable, and by far and away the biggest form of economic activity that exists in the world today."
— Nick Dearden (quoted in the documentary '97% Owned'

>>514163708 (OP)
agreed
fiat is worthless. as soon as you get paid throw it into something, only keep enough for monthly bills and maybe a few grand for emergencies.

>>514183965
>That is why I predict collapse of the global debt (bond) market, probably before end of 2025.
factions within the government/finance empire have anticipated this already. there is a back-up plan for if they fail to save the USd system. profit by anticipating that.

>>514184438
>USD's central role in all global economic interactions and transactions
>all
anon, do try and keep up. that's over.

>>514184049
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-gazprom-suffered-losses-nearly-234941148.html

Gazprom has had the biggest losses in 25 years recently.
If you think about it, the gas market is mostly regional. Once they lost the biggest customer, Europe, they could not sell more to other neighbours. They barely managed to make one single pipe operational with China. And they don't have the capacity to process so much LNG to compensate. So they've been losing big on gas sales.
Oil has been somewhat better but even there, their customers are poorer less developed BRICshits. China demanded to buy oil at production costs lmao. They absolutely humiliated Russia. And India buys discounted oil. Overall their revenue from oil has also decreased and gas is even worse.

So what they did was try to flood the market and managed to piss off the Saudis, which is why the arabs started increasing production and ... prices have been going down, up, down, up, wobbling a lot lately around $65 for Brent crude reference index.

>>514184140
>GDP

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio

(yes I know: 'gdp' numbers themselves are untrustworthy and ultimately irrelevant in the face of global debt)

(You) need to comprehend: none of this is solely about the U.S. economy (alone), 'survival of America' or U.S. 'economic health'.
It's about an impending global debt and currency crisis (which is why, see above posts, it's crucial not only that America "recovers" economically in the near future by showing increased annual growth but also, that global confidence in USD denomination, particularly treasuries, is maintained)

>taxes recession
None of that even matters. At all
Meaningless
Keep watching the debt market.

>>514184539
>35 pbtid "muh back up plan"
(You) are the most clueless poster itt
By far

>>514169643
>US Manufacturers CANNOT even come close to the foreign pricing, and thus this exacerbates 1 and 2 above.
Well good thing we implemented those tariffs so we can do exactly that.

>>514184555
>Ukrainska Pravda
it's like you're not even trying

you realize that Gazprom and Neft are public companies who release data on revenue that we can read?

stop posting your chatgpt horseshit here

>>514184664
you are the clueless one. do you really think that no one anticipated the end of the USD reserve system when it's historically well known that such systems have an eventual end?

I don't think the back-up plan is a savior or a way to continue controlling global finance, it's just a back-up system. We're not going to plunge into total chaos. the point is that if you watch the big $ you'll see what the back up plan is once they have decided that it's time to evacuate the sinking ship.

>>514184768
it's like people can't do simple math

>>514164032
Two more weeks until the economy collapses, here's some roastie plugging key words into Chat GPT article about it.

>>514184768
>>514185098
The seamstress in bangladesh who earns $1,000 a year will surely lose her job to an american because of a 25% tariff.

>>514185270
no, but her husband will lose his job on the chicken farm when we flood their market

>>514185017
>39 pbtid 'historically well known', 'back-up'
Done replying to clueless (You).

>>514163708 (OP)
Didn't they say inflation was normal and even a good thing a couple years ago?