>>514788435 (OP)
Brief History of “The Coming Collapse of China”
1989: After the Tiananmen Square protests, many Western commentators declared that the Communist Party’s legitimacy was shattered and its days were numbered.
Early 1990s: The collapse of the Soviet Union led to widespread predictions that China would be the next domino to fall. This was the peak of the “China Collapse” theory.
Late 1990s: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis was supposed to trigger China’s economic meltdown. It didn’t. China stabilized its currency and emerged stronger relative to its neighbors.
2000s: Predictions focused on the massive bad debt in the state-owned banking sector. Experts claimed the entire financial system was a house of cards. The state managed the debt and the system didn’t collapse.
2008: The Global Financial Crisis was supposed to be the death knell for China’s export-dependent economy. Instead, China launched a massive stimulus package, built immense infrastructure, and became even more central to the global economy.
2010s: Predictions shifted to a “hard landing” for the economy as growth slowed from double digits. The “ghost cities” became a symbol of imminent, inevitable collapse due to overinvestment and a property bubble. The collapse was always “just a year or two away.”
2016-2018: During the Trump trade war, tariffs were supposed to crush China’s economy and force capitulation. China’s economy absorbed the shock and continued to grow.
2020: COVID-19 was predicted to be China’s “Chernobyl moment,” exposing government incompetence and leading to societal unrest. The initial lockdowns were harsh, but the country reopened its economy well before many Western nations.
2021-Present: The current wave of predictions centers on the demographic crisis (plummeting birth rate, aging population) and the catastrophic property market collapse of giants like Evergrande and Country Garden. This is the latest iteration of the long-running narrative.
9/4/2025, 2:08:52 PM
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