Thread 515316054

Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?

If you picked the box with 2 gold balls, the odds are 100%. If you picked the box with one gold and one silver, the odds are 0%

>>515316054 (OP)
About fiddy purse hint

>>515316054 (OP)
Is this another one of those goat riddles where I’m supposed to believe it’s actually 33% and not 50?

>>515316054 (OP)
>Its a gold ball
Instead of
>If its a gold ball
Yea you should loose your voting rights if you cant word the puzzle in non ambigous way.

>>515316054 (OP)
>you can’t see into any of the boxes
I can clearly see into all of the boxes
This puzzle is faulty

>>515316054 (OP)
Abdolutely.

>>515317303
Its not due to retard saying
>Its a gold ball
Basically it leads you on to the goat problem method but that method fails in this case.
Since the gold ball is predetirmined.

>>515316054 (OP)
if you pulled out a gold ball, then there's a 2/3 chance that it came from the 2 gold ball box and a 1/3 chance that it came from the 1 gold ball box

so there's a 2/3 chance the other ball is gold and a 1/3 chance that the other is silver

>>515317303
>>515318208
if it helps imagine that the boxes have 1 million balls each

box A has 1 million gold balls
box B has 1 gold ball and 999,999 silver balls
box C has 1 million silver balls

you pulled a gold ball, what's the chance the other is gold? practically 100% because it's way more likely that you pulled a gold ball from box A than the 1 gold ball from box B

>>515316054 (OP)
How many times are you going to post this thread ?

The answer is 60%. Americans really are stupid af

>>515316054 (OP)

No. That way the one making the proficiency test holds all the power

>>515318880
It's counterintuitive because you could have pulled any of the two gold balls so there are three possible outcomes instead of only two. Dosent mean that people who don't see it st first are stupid. It's those who refuse to understand it who are. Also the answer is 66.666% not 60

>>515319072
yeah, what if they write a proficiency test that only niggers can pass

>>515318643
that is not true, you are taking the probability at the wrong time and factoring in things that are simply not a factor.

You have an equal chance of either even in this case, its still a coin flip, you simply cannot understand this because you are stuck trying to measure something the wrong way and wont admit you might be wrong.

>>515319356
I thought canadians were supposed to be good at trolling

>>515316320
oops you failed, not because your answer is wrong but you misread the question. No vote for you.

>>515316054 (OP)
it's 1/3
that "paradox" exists in half a dozen other variants

>Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?
yes
but also no
because who decides on how the test should look
even the shown bertrand's box paradox was only described at the end of the 19th century and people argued over it for the next 100y in one form or another
just imagine some retard makes the test and you fail because the reference answer is wrong

>>515318643
It helps visualize conditional probability. But it says nothing about initial conditions.
If you and me meet in Cambodia to play flip a coin.
We dont calculate the odds of American and Croatian meeting in Cambodia at 17 pm south asian time etc.
We look at odds of a penny flip that is 50/50.

>>515319356
The silver ball box is completely irrelevent once the riddle says you pick a gold ball. After that, you have only 2 boxes which have 3 balls, 2 gold and one silver. In what universe is that a 50/50 split?

>>515319308
no, but it would be nice if they did.

>>515316054 (OP)
If you pick box at random then we have to take all gold balls and all silver balls which is 3 and 3.
Box is 1/3
Ball is 3/6
So around 33% for silver.

Now thinking about this if balls are made by volume and not by weight then gold would be heavier and thus you could easily cheat. If taking it to the hands if you had a chance.

>>515316054 (OP)
It is one in three if I am not mistaken. The third box is excluded. We do not know if you pulled box one or two, but we know there is two gold balls and one silver ball remaining, thus one in three. Or am I just retarded?

>>515317938
>loose
>if you cant word the puzzle in non ambigous way
You're an Esl so you get a pass but that is in no way ambiguous. Next time you think something in English is 'ambiguous', just ask someone who speaks the language rather than looking like a fucking retard.

>>515320256
No, you even got the ball colour right, which is more than half this thread can say. Goddamn /pol/ is full of fucking retards, how can you stand it? I only come here to make fun of them.

>>515319850
It is irrelevant. Let’s use two boxes instead. No box with silver/silver.

Gold/gold 1/4
Gold/gold 1/4
Gold/silver 1/4
Silver/gold 1/4

We have no silver/silver box.

Probability of picking gold P(A) = 3/4
Probability of picking gold followed by silver P(A n B) = 1/4.

(1/4)/(3/4) =0,333

It is 50%
Bless your hearts

first ball is gold
you are pulling from one of the left two boxes
there were 4 balls in those two boxes to start
one of those balls is silver
therefore the probability of pulling the silver ball is 1/4 or 25%


niggers

>>515316054 (OP)
Jewpublicans will never do shit about white genocide

>>515321220
You already pulled a ball so there's only 3 left, retard. No vote for you.

didn't read any of the posts but i remember seeing the story about some math genius woman getting shit on by a math professor about this.
the math professor guy was adamant about choosing another box after you pulled the first box would do nothing to change your odds, whereas the genius lady said even after you removed the first box your odds were still 1/3 but it would become 1/2 if you chose again.
which seems counterintuitive but the lady was apparently right.

>>515321220
Because you need to calculate the probability of pulling from one those boxes and pulling gold first.

The likelyhood of pulling gold first is not the same in the second box as in the first box.

Thus you need the calculate the probability of drawing gold first and silver second knowing you have drawn gold first. This is not 50 % because the likelyhood of your hand being in gold/gold box is greater than gold/silver box.

>>515321421
it doesn't matter how many are left, retard
only how many were originally in the left two boxes
one silver
three gold
you lose
nigger retard

it's 1 in two lol.
The ball you picked is gold, which means you picked either box A or B. Now you have 50% odds to be in B (silver)

>>515321591
No you don't, pulling a gold ball is a certainty as formulated by the problem. You never encounter box C, it might as well not exist

>>515321787
shh.
you're supposed to spam incorrect answers in case you haven't noticed

>>515321741
You are so fucking dumb it's unreal lmao it absolutely does matter how many are left, that's how maths works

>>515321787
No you are not 50 % being in B because the likelyhood of drawing gold in box A is greater than in box B. This should be logically apparent.
>>515321950
See
>>515321167

>>515322011
>retard is shown to be retarded and says he was MERELY PRETENDING
lmao sad cope

>>515316054 (OP)
at the outset you have a 50% chance of picking either after you remove one gold ball the probability rises your next selection will be a silver ball.. the querry doesn't ask for a specific percentage but its a two to three ratio

Let’s rephrase the problem so everybody understand: there are two gold balls in box A and 1 gold ball and 1 silver ball in box B. You put your hand in one box and draw a gold ball? In which box is your hand (most likely)?

>>515316054 (OP)
>Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?
Yes.
/thread

>>515322154
No, because you're taking a gold ball. Each box has equal probability to get picked (except for C which cannot be picked). So picking a box with a gold ball is one in two. It's not conditional probabilities since you know P(box picked contains gold ball) = 1

Basically the problem is awkwardly formulated and therefore there's not reason to argue it, but if you strictly follow the words of the problem, I'm right

>>515322541
The answer to OP's original question is "Yes".
But your answer to the picrel is wrong.
Picking the first ball is really a matter of picking a box.
The odds that you're holding the box with two gold balls is twice the odds that you're holding the box with only one.
That means it's twice as likely that the other ball will be gold.

>>515322688
The problem starts at "it's a gold ball". Anything before that is in the past and therefore misdirection. Again, it's a silly facebook-tier problem like the one with the division so who cares

>>515316054 (OP)
What if I didn’t have breakfast this morning?
Would I still have a pair of golden balls?

>>515322541
See >>515322373

>>515322964
Right, that's just laying the parameters.
It's not a Facebook-tier problem. It's literally a century-old math problem that's been solved very conclusively.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>515323116
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradoxe_des_bo%C3%AEtes_de_Bertrand
>Le problème consiste à sélectionner une boîte, à y tirer une des deux médailles au hasard puis, si la médaille tirée est en or, à calculer la probabilité que la seconde médaille tirée de la même boîte soit également une médaille en or[1]. Intuitivement, il pourrait sembler que la probabilité que la médaille restante soit en or est de 1/2 : mais elle est en réalité de 2/3. Ce paradoxe est un biais d'équiprobabilité.
Betrand formulated as "if it's a gold ball, what is the probability that the neighboring ball is also a gold ball". In that case it's conditional probabilities. As I've said, OP's thread is badly formulated.

>>515323342
see >>515322964 and >>515323342

>>515323342
>Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?
Just to be clear, OP only asked one question.
>Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?
Picrel is just a distraction.

>>515323116
Ha so I was actually right..

looks like my friend telling me yesterday my 62 year old brain was deterioration might not necessarily be a fully accurate observation and may have been a facetious exaggeration.

>>515323404
see >>515322964 and >>515323342

>>515323561
ok but can you admit that you were wrong regarding the solution of the problem as it was formulated?

>>515323689
As the question is formulated, the probability that the next ball I take from the same box will be silver is 1/3.
I picked a box at random. I put my hand in and took a ball from that box at random. It's a gold ball. That leaves me with three scenarios:
(GG Box - balls G1 and G2)
(GS Box - balls G3 and S1)
I picked G1.
I picked G2.
or
I picked G3.
That's three scenarios, with three separate following scenarios.
If I picked G1, the other ball is G2.
if I picked G2, the other ball is G1.
if I picked G3, the other ball is S1.
That's two scenarios where the other ball is gold, one where it is silver.
1/3.

>>515323689
Thank you for your service, Hans. If the last thread was any indication you’ll have 90IQ midwits spouting off about “which” gold ball you picked as though it actually matters because they can’t read and see that the problem starts AFTER the gold ball is chosen and everything before it is fluff. In fact, here’s one now
>>515323962
At the time that the OP question is asked, there are precisely two options. You are holding a gold ball and in front of you is a box that either contains another gold ball or a silver ball. HOW you got to this point is irrelevant. If you can’t see why you’re the one getting filtered by the election IQ test

>>515323962
You didn't pick a ball, you picked a box. The gold ball has already been picked. There were two boxes with a gold ball. The third box doesn't exist. The boxes are picked at random and therefore P(A)=P(B)=0.5
Again, we're arguing about nothing. You'd be right if the problem, as it should've been, was formulated as "if you pick a gold ball, what are the odds the next ball is gold". But it wasn't.

>>515323102
see >>515322964 and >>515323342

>>515324271
>>515324275
What neither of you are getting is that it's twice as likely you're holding a box with two gold balls than a box with only one.
The first ball is only a clue as to which box you chose.
My answer fits the specs perfectly. You are overcomplicating this because you don't want to admit you're wrong.

>>515316054 (OP)
I already have a gold ball and I'm not a greedy kike. I do a 360 and walk away from the Jew boxes so zero percent.

>>515324275
Let's say we have three boxes. One with three gold balls. One with two silver balls and a gold ball. One with three gold balls.
You pick a box. You choose a gold ball. Which is more likely - that you picked a gold ball out of the box with three gold balls or that you picked the gold ball out of the box with two silver ones as well?
Given that, if you take another ball, which is more likely - that the ball will be gold or silver?
Keep adding balls to the situation until it makes sense. It's a question of the probability of which box you've chosen.

>>515324545
Yes, this would be the case if you were looking at closed boxes with 2 gold balls, one gold and a silver ball, and 2 silver balls. But you're not, you're looking at one box and you have one gold ball in your hand.

AGAIN the problem is badly formulated and pointless. Do you want to argue about pic rel for hours too?

>>515324545
Thanks for proving my point perfectly
>If the last thread was any indication you’ll have 90IQ midwits spouting off about “which” gold ball you picked as though it actually matters because they can’t read and see that the problem starts AFTER the gold ball is chosen and everything before it is fluff.
I look forward to the brighter future where you’re deemed too stupid to vote

>>515316320
yeah and the median value is 50%, so that's the right answer

>>515322249
>thread theme

>>515324809
it doesn't matter what was the likeliness of an event in the past to happen. The problem starts with you having a gold ball, how you got there is irrelevant.
The problem isn't "what were the odds that you picked a silver ball after drawing a gold ball from one of these 3 equiprobable boxes", it's "what are the odds your next ball is silver"

>>515325299
but you are twice as likely to have picked the box with 2 gold balls

>>515324809
>>515325317
Can I get a concession?

>>515319850
You keep missing what happens and cannot follow along. You are acting like you can draw from another box, rather then being forced to draw the 2nd ball out of the box you already drew from.

You already have chosen the box to draw from and you ALREADY have taken a gold ball out of that box. This affects the probability of what comes next.

The only two possibilities are there is one gold, or one silver ball left in the box. Even with n-infinity balls, you still already chose either the box that will produce a silver or a gold ball, its still a coin flip

try the experiment in real life and see what your results are, do it with 10 balls so that the retard "mathematicians" in this thread would say you have a much higher chance of drawing a 2nd gold ball.

You will find that the average tends towards 50% given a large enough sample size.

The simple fact is that most people do not understand that once you take a single gold ball, out of an unknown box, you actually have only one ball left inside that same box. The ball, that you will 100% not pick, in another box you will 100% not pick from, is 100% irrelevant to the probability of the 2nd ball being picked from the box you pulled a gold ball out of.

You have only two options for the 2nd ball from the same box, either it is silver, or it is gold. You cannot somehow pick the "3rd gold" from a different box at that point hence why it isnt a factor for the actual math.

>>515325065
>>515325317
You are both literally adding conditions to the matter that are not in the initial problem.
Every step matters.
Again, let's say you have two boxes. One has 100 gold balls. The other has 1 gold ball and 99 silver ones.
You pick a box at random.
You pull out a ball.
It is gold.
Given the problem where it stands now, you draw another ball.
What is the probability that the ball is silver?

>>515316054 (OP)
there's only two possible answers:
>yes
>no
choose one and only one then explain why.

>>515325626
You haven't fucking proved anything, you're just trolling at this point by ignoring essential aspects of the problem.
You don't get concessions just for asking for them. This is not how White people behave.

>>515316054 (OP)
>Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?
All the processing power in the world is useless if you're running nothing on it.

>>515325299
>>515325446
I hate you both so much.

>>515325878
>You are both literally adding conditions to the matter that are not in the initial problem.
no u
You have chosen a box. God Himself has ensured that when you reach into that box you grab a gold ball. At that point the box in front of you either has 99 gold balls or 99 silver balls. What is the chance of either happening?
>If the last thread was any indication you’ll have 90IQ midwits spouting off about “which” gold ball you picked as though it actually matters because they can’t read and see that the problem starts AFTER the gold ball is chosen and everything before it is fluff.

>>515326190
>God Himself has ensured that when you reach into that box you grab a gold ball.
This is the mistake you're making. That's not in the initial question at all.
There was a probability involved of you pulling a gold ball out of that box. Your "answer" requires ignoring that.
I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say you're trolling, because otherwise you're not even a midwit - you're a retard.

It’s not a statistics exercise it’s a thought exercise in predetermined outcomes vs. observed results.
You can say 1/3 and be correct because you chose randomly from 3 boxes and only 1 in 3 contain both the silver and gold ball.
You can also say 1/2 and be correct because after you’ve observed a gold ball, you know you’ve selected one of the two boxes containing gold balls and only one of the two possible boxes remaining has a silver ball.
The question is left intentionally ambiguous to spark a discussion between these two approaches. It’s contingent on whether / when you disregard the box with both silver balls. If you’re taking that box out of the equation you’re positing that your fate was predetermined and you may very well be correct because you didn’t pick it - your odds are 1/2 and were always 1/2 because with the information you have now, you know the box with both silver balls was never going to be the result. On the other hand, your selection was random, you could have picked the box with both silver balls, you didn’t, but it was always a possibility and the outcome was decided by random chance.

>>515326190
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random
Fucking retard.

>>515326344
>>515326451
>There was a probability involved of you pulling a gold ball out of that box
And that probability is 1. Because you are TOLD it’s a gold ball

>>515326446
It's not 1/3rd because there are three boxes.
It would still be 1/3rd even if there were only two boxes you could have picked from initially.
It's 1/3rd because, given you pulled a gold ball, it's twice as likely you pulled it from the box with two of them than the box with only one.

>>515326527
Setting up a scenario - how does that work.
Okay. So you are retarded then.
Go the fuck back to r*ddit.

>>515326639
What probability would you assign to an event that you already know happened?

>>515326930
Fuck off troll.

>>515319421
Its a jeet import

>>515324518
The wording doesn’t change anything. If you pick gold the likelyhood is greater of you being in box A rather than box B.

>>515326344
>There was a probability involved of you pulling a gold ball
there would be if it was formulated as the paradoxe des boîtes de Bertrand usually is. "You pick a box at random, you pick a ball at random, if the ball is gold then what are the odds the next ball is also gold". Here's it's not.

>>515327057
kek you got btfo'd

>>515327145
>if you pick gold
Yes "if" is a keyword here. It's absent from OP's pic however.

>>515327145
I’m going to try a different approach since none of you seem to understand
>there are four boxes in front of you. Three are completely empty and the fourth is filled with a million gold balls and a million silver balls. You reach into the fourth box and randomly grab balls to place them into the first three boxes. You grab three gold and three silver in that order. Now run the experiment from OP
Does this new information change the probabilities involved? Why or why not?

>>515325317
That’s where you are wrong. Since the probability of box A is greater than box B.

You can take this to an absurd level if you still don’t understand where you are wrong:

Box A have 1000 gold balls
Box B have 1 gold ball and 999 silver ball.

What is the odds of the next ball being silver?

>>515327057
Answer the question

>>515327425
They're both trolling at this point.
There's no point bothering with them since there's nothing to be gained from this argument except wasting people's time.
They're just playing off of people's need to be right, especially when we're *actually* right.

>>515327425
>Box A has 1000 gold balls
>Box B has 500 gold balls and 500 silver balls.
ftfy

>>515327506
How about bite me faggot.

>>515327425
>Since the probability of box A is greater than box B.
This sentence is mathematical nonsense. What's the probability of a box?

>>515327647
The problem is that you've seen the paradox on reddit and turned your brain off since. If you actually read OP's pic, you'd get it (maybe)

>>515318643
You're answering 'if you pull a gold ball, what's the chance the next oneis gold?' But the question is 'you pulled a gold ball. what's the chance the next is gold?

In the latter case, youre either pulling a ball from 100% gold balls left or 100% silver balls left

>>515327425
Why would you change the ratio of gold balls to silver? Box B is half gold half silver. This information is given, it’s not up for debate.

>>515320256
Very close but missing the key component. If you pulled a gold ball then you have 2 options left. One gold or one grey. It's 50:50

there are only two boxes as the box with the silver balls has been eliminated. with only two boxes the answer to the meme can only ever be 50%.

for a more detailed explanation of the problem see post >>515325942

>>515327425
If you flip a coin but count only the times you get tails and ignore cases where you get heads, what are the odds the next toss is tails

>>515318643
But box B would have 500,000 gold and 500,000 silver in order to be equivalent.

The answer is you have a 50 percent chance of getting a silver ball. Since you either have the gold ball from the dual gold box or the one from the gold/silver box.

>>515324545
"Its a gold ball" vs "if its a gold ball" changes the problrm completely

>>515327691
>>515327710
>>515327851
The ratio was skewed as to make it absolutely apparent that the probability of having picked A is higher than B if you have picked a gold ball.

But fine let’s say its 1000 gold and 500 gold + 500 silver, which box have you most likely picked if you picked gold?

>>515328256
How about you answer my question >>515327415

>>515328256
They know this already.
They are literally just fucking with you to waste your time.

>>515328256
>if
You keep using that word. That word introduces conditional probabilities which would make OP's pic bertrand's paradox. However that word is conspicuously absent from OP's pic

>>515328203
you get it

>>515328024
There is road A with only black cars and road B with 50 % black cars and 50 % white cars.

The next car you see is a black car, is it as likely that you are on road A as B?

>>515327321
Midwit retards cant into fine details like that. All they see is balls (gay), run to wikipedia to look at other balls (gay) and spit back the answer to a different problem because theyre too busy fondling balls and spitting up solutions to read the question.

Its the same reason paper coffe cups need to have heat warnings despite end users observing hot liquid being poured in immediayely before touching the cup.

>>515328256
If you pull from a box with 1 silver and 1 gold ball but you only count times you pull gold but ignore times you pull silver what are the odds you'll pull gold

>>515328606
They have to be trolling or terminally retarded.

>>515328549
>But you must ignore that you saw a black car and only report white cars
You can't know.
Why won't you answer my question

>>515327818
Its impossible to randomly choose a specific object. The only way the question makes sense is with the "if" interpretation, otherwise its logically incoherent.

the answer is 50% and i dont understand how it can be anything else

>>515328739
The latter. They saw the question, looked it up on Reddit that looked it up on Wikipedia and they just repeat that without thinking.

>>515328840
Sp you are saying it’s as likey you are on A as in B?

>>515328880
The "command" is to ignore the certain cases like pulling silver first.
>Flip the coin but ignore getting tails
>You get heads every time

>>515329162
>you pick a box at random
>you draw a ball from that box at random

>>515329029
why do you keep ignoring my posts about the "if" issue?

>>515316054 (OP)
Niggers here can't into already established new conditions. You already picked a gold ball, you are already in a situation where you are either in box A or box B, with no way to know. This is an either probability between 2 choices with nothing distinguishing them, therefore a 50%.

>>515329428
based prépachad

>>515329162
Yes, I know that. But doing so results in 2/3. Because by ignoring silver, you are throwing away 50% of the occurrences of the second box. Basically, each box is equally likely, if you select the third box you then throw it away 100% of the time, the second box you throw away 50% of the time, and the first box you always keep. This results in the first box being twice as likely after applying the gold condition.

>>515328070
Wait I'm wrong, it's 1/3

>>515329300
>you draw a ball from that box at random but you are told what the outcome of that choice is
Legitimate question: do you know the difference between “it’s a gold ball” and “if it’s a gold ball”?

>>515328970
>Turns out they ARE the same

>>515329620
>Because by ignoring silver, you are throwing away 50% of the occurrences of the second box
Correct
The only way that retards can come to the 50% conclusion is if they ignore the setup of the problem

>>515329428
no it's a double nigger situation, the question is actually about voting. the ball meme is a red herring.

>>515329428
And what about the box with both silver balls? You chose at random. You didn’t pick box C but you very well could have. Were you always destined to pick either A or B? If you do the exact same exercise a thousand or a million times will you always pick either A or B?

>>515329029
Since you can only see white cars on either road, yes
Now answer my question

>>515329751
>The only way that retards can come to the 50% conclusion is if they carefully read what the problem actually says

somebody needs to acknowledge my intellectual superiority iit right now or I am gonna get really annoyed. Y'all jelly I got the right answer before anyone posted Bertrand's Box and avoid recognizing it out of your correct sense of inferiority..

>>515327425
The original choice was 50/50 between a gold and silver ball, brainlet. You never had a higher chance to get anything. Either type of ball could have come out of 2/3 of the boxes. The only way to get gold being more likely is if you pretend there never was a box that contained 1 of each. You have no clue which of the 2 boxes you got your gold ball from nor is there any way to estimate that without making assumptions on shaky grounds.

>>515329751
the "setup" can be safely ignored since the problem starts with you having a gold ball in your hand and a box that has either a gold ball or a silver ball in front of you.

>>515329620
You have one box with 1G and 1S ball
You ignore times you pull Silver
What are the odds you'll pull gold next time

>>515329809
>you very well could have
It doesn't matter; We are already told what happened, we picked a gold ball, box C is totally irrelevant. We picked a gold ball, it could have come from either box A or B. With no further information, it's 50/50. Either we picked from A and it's 100% of gold ball next, or it's B and 0% next.

You've got to be trolling to not understand that kind of scenario. "You toss a coin and land on heads, what are the chances of landing on tails if you toss a coin again?" It's 50%, retard, the previous state is already set in stone and clearly told as such, going into "but what if I landed on tails before?" rants is irrelevant.

>>515329978
>the problem starts with you having a gold ball in your hand
No it doesn't
The problem starts with "You pick a box at random" then "You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random"
You don't get to redefine the problem just because you're a retard

>>515325682
I don’t know if we’re right because this sort of problem is designed to be unintuitive, but I agree with you

>>515329978
See >>515329300

>>515330219
These are descriptions of things that have already happened. Present tense "it's a gold ball" indicates a certainty. You are now here.

If you want the bertrand paradox, just add an "if". If it's a gold ball, what is the probability [...]. But you didn't, therefore it's a coin toss

>>515330340
>it's a gold ball
See >>515330389

>>515330287
intuition tells you to cross the street to avoid blacks logic is required to understand this problem.

>>515330287
There's nothing vague about it, it's just unintuitive because people are bad at probabilities.
It's a well known problem in statistics - it even has a name, Bertrand's Box
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

And, judging from this thread, people are also bad at remembering what happened in the near past, since they seem to think that their life being with a gold ball in their hand

>>515321741
where do these retards come from? no votes for you.

>>515316054 (OP)
FUCK THRSE PUZXLE THREADS
we really do need some new jannies

>>515330626
>we really do need some new jannies
It's the jannies who post these threads
They're all feds/JIDF shills trying to slide the fuck out of /pol/

>>515330389
It’s a gold ball drawn at random. Thus you can deduce the probability of being in box A (2/3) vs box B(1/3).

>>515321421
>>515321220
you're pulling from the same box. There is only one ball left in that box. You will 100% pull out the remaining ball from a box that contained at least one gold ball. Since there are two of those boxes, the answer is 50%.
>>515321591
it doesn't matter what the probability of the first pull is. You are told the result. You have pulled a gold ball. Even if the situation is as another anon put it where there are a million balls in each box, one box all gold, another box 1 gold and remaining silver. You are told the first pull is gold. The answer is 50% regardless. It's not about the remaining balls, but about the binary odds of which box you pulled from initially and since it's random it's 50%

it continuously amazes me the mental gymnastics people try when these broken questions appear online. Just because a question appears in a place where riddles and tricks are common doesnt mean it's got some hidden trick. Read the goddamn question

>>515316054 (OP)
there are 6 different outcomes
GG,GG(reversed order), GS, SG, SS, SS(reversed order)

picking Gold then a Silver Ball is probable 1/6 times.
but Since you have knowledge that the first Ball you pick is Gold you eliminate 3 of the possible outcomes

The 3 outcomes are
(a)Gold then Gold
(b)Gold then Silver
(c)Gold then Gold reverse of (a)
2/3 chance of selecting Gold 1/3 chance of selecting silver

>>515330536
This wikipedia page doesn't postulate the problem correctly. I've checked the french page and the russian one (countries that actually know math) and they both correctly use "if" to denote conditional probabilities (along with an actual demonstration of using bayes theorem.

tl;dr: you're a midwit

>>515330689
Retard, that's not the question being asked. They're not asking you "What's the chance of getting tails twice in a row", they're asking you "What's the chance of getting tails if you just got tails before?" It's 50%? the conditions have reset.

>>515330852
there are two outcomes. You have been told the first pull is gold. Read the question

>>515330899
>they both correctly use "if" to denote conditional probabilities
Please show me where the word "if" appears in the definition of the problem.

Actually don't bother, because you're clearly trolling at this point

>>515330842
Of course it matters, since you are more likely to have picked box A than B.

>>515316054 (OP)
It's 50%.
>pulling a gold ball at all means you either have the double gold or mixed box
>it's impossible to have the double silver box
>so you either have a 100% or 0% chance of pulling another gold
>meaning you have a 50/50 shot

>>515330997
I mistyped, you are told the first pull is a gold ball. It doesnt matter which gold ball

>>515330852
>reverse of (a)
They are the same, it's the same as a

>>515330842
After the gold ball is pulled, there are three separate scenarios, all of which have an equal likelihood.
Not two.
You can't have three scenarios and a 50% chance of each.
>>515328970
This explains it perfectly. You don't know which ball you pulled exactly and it could have been one of the two from Box A or the one from Box B.
It is twice as likely it came from Box A.
Yes, the box has already been chosen. But that's the point, the question boils down to the probability that we're holding a particular box.

>>515331001
>him: the English page translated things wrong, look at the French or Russian pages for the actual formulation of the problem
>you: but if I look at the English page I can’t see what you’re talking about so you must be stupid
>>515330842
There’s exactly three possibilities for the 2/3rds people: they’re 90IQ white midwits who read a wiki page and think they’re smart, they’re actually brown and have no capacity for realizing what “you’ve chosen randomly but are told the outcome of that choice” actually means, or they’re trolling. If it’s the third option, bravo, you got bites. If it’s the other two get the FUCK off my board, I hope variations of OP become the new captcha

>>515330925
>they are not asking
Hard facts doesn’t care what they are asking. This is the difference between science and LGBTQ studies or whatever you have a degree in.

If you randomly pick a box and a ball from that box the probability of you haven picked A is 2/3 and B 1/3.

>>515327896
nah because there are two gold in one box you are twice as likely to have picked that box

so its only 1/3

>>515331001
Is that the French or the Russian page
Did you read the German anon's post

>>515331094
it matters for the odds of picking an initial gold ball. The questions asks what are the odds of the colour of the remaining ball in the box you already opened. There are only two outcomes since there is no universe that exists where you picked the box with only 2 silver balls. You either picked box A or B. You find out when picking the 2nd ball. That is the question. The odds of the initial pick are irrelevant. It could be 1 gold ball to 20 quintillion silver balls in box B. If you are told the first pull is gold it is still 50/50 which fucking box you pulled from

Here's a question for you. You have won the lottery, you flip a coin heads or tails, what are the odds the flip is heads? Is the answer one in 100 million because that is the odds of winning the lottery? No retard. It's irrelevant and built into the hypothetical that it already happened

>>515331001
How can you expect to do maths when you when you can't even read?

>>515331653
You miss the whole point.
The point of the problem is figuring out the probability that we picked a particular box in the first place.
Odds are 0/3 that it was the SS box. 1/3 that it was the GS box. 2/3 that it was the GG box.
Given that, it is more likely that the other ball will be gold.

>>515329978
If you ignore the setup you can make the result anything you want. The setup tells you to perform a random selection, but if you ignore that, then you could do whatever you want, such as always selecting the first box. You cannot ignore the setup.

>>515331653
if you cant understand just admit you are brown and a mathfailure

>>515331389
>>515330997
https://onecompiler.com/c/43wbarkym

test it yourself

>>515331653
Lol if you are more likely to have picked A than B you are also more likely to pick a second gold ball rather than a silver ball.

>>515331500
If you have a gold ball in your hand, the probability that the box you took the ball from is 1.

>>515331428
>>515331500
There's only 2 real possibilities

1) The retards are trolling and know it's 2/3
2) The retards think they are smart and have heard that a single coin flip is always 50% regardless of past outcome

They think that the puzzle is "You are holding a gold ball which came from either a box with GG or a box with SG"
But it doesn't begin that way - the process to get to that point matters
They ignore the process to get to that situation because they think it's irrelevant, but they're wrong.
The path matters.

>>515331724
Oh shut the fuck up.
>You pick box at random
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random
"If" is implied you fucking retard.

>>515331916
Well said.

>>515331653
There are three gold balls you could have picked. A, B, C. A and B are together. C is with the silver ball, D. If you picked A, then the other ball is B (gold). If you picked B, then the other ball is A (gold). If you picked C, then the other ball is D (silver). 1 silver, 2 gold, 1/3 probability of getting silver on second try.

>>515316054 (OP)
>Please stop making these threads.
>Please people stop saying 50%
>Please

>>515331946
Nothing is ever implied in mathematics. But I'm glad that you finally admit that, just like I said 2 hours ago the problem is badly formulated and that, as it stands, I'm right.

I accept your concession.

>>515316054 (OP)
Why does the double silver ball box even exist?

>>515331829
>you have one in a million odds to win the lottery for $1M
>congratulation you just won the lottery!
>what are the odds that you have $1M in your bank account right now??????????

>>515316054 (OP)
its 50 % you retards.

>>515331817
but it doesnt matter. The initial box pull was random so the odds of any box being involved is 1/3. It doesnt matter what colour the initial ball is since the question is mirrored. If it was silver it would involve boxes B,C, but it's gold so it involves boxes A,B. you eliminate one of the boxes as an option. You have two boxes left which each had 1/3 of a chance of being involved in your initial pick. Now since those odds are even it's 50/50 which box you are pulling from. Unless your goal from the very start was to pull gold balls in which case it's a different question.

You guys are answering a different question. One you've made up...

>>515331882
>Total trials: 1000000
>Gold coins drawn first: 500000
So the very premise of the problem is not included
Obviously badly written program

>>515316054 (OP)
Everyone who has heard the story of the woman with the world's highest IQ already knows the answer.
Maybe you could post some SR71 greentexts that you stole from Facebook next, pretty plz.

>>515331946
>If is implied
and yet the problem is coherent without its presence. You flip a coin and it comes up heads. What’s the probability that the coin flip resulted in heads?
>>515331999
>you pick a box randomly
>based on the next step you have to try again if you pick the all silver box, but the other two each have 1/2 chance of getting picked
>you pick a ball from that box “randomly”
>God guides your hand to ensure that the ball you choose is gold no matter if there’s one silver ball in it, there’s none, or there’s TREE(3)
>there is now one less ball in THAT box
>what are the chances of the other ball being silver? Your choices are a box that only has gold balls or a box that only has silver balls
How many times does this need to be explained before you understand?

Mathematics degree holder here. The answer is 50%, because you can't change boxes. You either grabbed the gold ball from the box with 2 or you grabbed the gold ball from the box with 1. This isn't a monty hall problem like I see some anons absentmindedly commenting. In probability this is using the "given" notion, which restricts the probability domain, which the monty hall problem utilizes in successive probability scenarios and results in the unintuitive outcome of greater success odds for switching doors. Probability regularly finds itself falling at odds with intuitive outcomes, because we generally don't think to restrict the domain of possible outcomes as we must to properly calculate probability.

>>515331882
now make a simulation where you have two boxes, one has a gold ball, the other a silver and ask it to give it the results. Y'know, since thats the question since the initial pull is irrelevant except to eliminate the third box from the question. You have picked up a gold ball. There is no universe where you havent. So there are only 2 options. It is 50/50 you absolute retards

>>515316320
Non-voter identified.
> nice work OP

>>515332360
It’s not badly formulated.
The box is picked at random
The ball from the box is picked at random.
Thus you can calculate the probability of haven picked box B. This is basic logic and you failed.

>>515316054 (OP)
It's 50/50 you retards because you've eliminated the third box since it contains no gold. The probability is in the box you choose to take from next, not the ball.

>>515331999
I revert you back to my hypothetical. You have won the lottery and you flip a coin. What is the odds it is heads?

>>515319502
This Anon gets it.

>>515331999
If they were all in the same box yes but they're not.

>>515332367
It exists but doesn’t alter the probability:
Gg
Gg
Gs
Sg

Probability of gold as first pick = 3/4. Probability of silver second (1/4)/(3/4) =0,333.

Unfortunately some people haven’t though this through.

Like someone else said. They believe the path doesn’t matter, when it really does and have been proven to matter experimentally.

The argument that ”if” matters is basically a LGBTQ based argument. Hard fact doesn’t care.

>>515332864
Non-voting bong identified.

>>515331999
are you retarded? you either put your hand into box 1 or 2, its 50% probability, it doesnt matter which gold ball you grabbed retard.

>>515332535
Of course it matter.

It is a fact that the probability of haven picked box A is 2/3 and the probability of box B 1/3. This is a hard fact and of course it matters.

>>515333130
You have a gold ball in your hand. What are the odds that you have a gold ball in your hand? (hint: it's 1)

>>515332896
See >>515332807. You’re getting stuck on a “““random””” choice that you ARE TOLD THE OUTCOME OF. You keep answering “if the first ball is gold…” but the question being asked is “given that the first ball is gold…” Learn the difference

>>515333135
wanna buy tower bridge?

>>515316320
Inter-City Public schooled?
COMPREHENSION = 0

>>515333255
IT DOESNT MATTER RETARD. You already grabbed a gold ball. you either put your hand into box 1 or 2 you dense inbecile.

>>515332807
Do you comprehend that the likelyhood of haven picked box A is higher than box B (given that you picked gold first). If so why do you believe this hard fact don’t matter?

>>515333291
No ranjeet, I already have two.

>>515332896
>calculate the probability of having picked box B
The fucking question is what is the probability that you'll get silver when you pick AGAIN, no the odds that you would've picked Gold to begin with. Wtf how stupid can you be.

Am I on /sci/? This is /sci/ b8

>>515330997
>>515332864
lmao you're literally too retarded
>there are only 2 options
but they're not of equal likelihood you little cretin.

It's insane that you actually read this >>515330852 and still didn't get it.

>>515333384
Because it’s not a hard fact. Goddamn are you one of those new Swedes?

>>515332535
Each box is 1/3 before the constraint. The constraint filters away some of the probability of each box. The gold constraint filters away all the probability of the third box, making it 0. The same mechanism that makes the third box 0, acts on the second box reducing it from 1/3 to 1/6. After re-normalization of the remaining probabilities 1/3, 1/6,0 becomes 2/3, 1/3, 0.

You have no issue with the third box being reduced to zero. That same process acts on the second box 50% of the time, cutting its probability in half.

>>515333384
lmfao no way a swede is that retarded. you must be a muslim rape baby.

>>515332818
> Mathematics degree holder here.
Maybe a degree in LGBTQ mathematics.

>>515316054 (OP)
50/50
>
Pick GOLD BALL - TWO OPTIONS LEFT... thus 50/50 SINCE BOX 3 WITH TWO SILVER BALLS IS AUTOMATICALLY EXCLUDED.
>
QUESTION ASKS PROBABILITY *AFTER* YOU PICKED THE GOLD BALL... NOT BEFORE, NIGGA-IQ!
>
50/50

>>515333553
nice argument low iq ape.

>>515316054 (OP)

This isnt so much a logic problem as a listening problem. 2 Boxes have at least 1 gold ball, so if you put your hand in and draw a gold ball and then go for another one IN THE SAME BOX, then this elimenates the double silver box because you only put your hand in the 1G1S or 2G, therefore you have a 50% chance of pulling a silver ball out since you can only draw a gold or silver ball next.

>>515333201
The probability of haven picked box A is greater than box B.

>>515333255
it is stated as a condition in the question that you have obtained a gold ball. It does not matter what the odds of getting that gold ball are to the actual question. Box B could have contained 1 gold ball and 20 million squitillion silver balls. The hypothetical states you have obtained a gold ball. There are only two boxes where this is possible and until you pull a 2nd ball it is unknown which one you have picked. Therefore the odds are 50/50. The balls and their counts are irrelevant except in removing box C from contention.
Answer my hypothetical. You have won the lottery, you flip a coin. What are the odds it is heads?
I cannot make it clearer than this except by buying a ticket and flying over there to teach you english all over again since you clearly cannot fucking read

>>515316054 (OP)
If any of you are 40 yr old virgins. This thread is what it's like to try to logic with an angry woman.

>>515333709
True but irrelevant

>>515333374
What box did i most likely pick A or B?

>>515333599
THIS is why White men went to the Moon and no nigger has yet to be there.
>
50/50

>>515331882
now what?

>>515333481
Hehe it’s not a hard fact that box A had two gold balls while silver had 1 gold ball and 1 silver? How’s your gender studies going?

>>515333769
has not bearings on the odd of which ball you'll pick next

>>515333951
>If I ignore the actual text of the question and change it completely, I can get the wrong answer

...except these niggas, who crashed there because we were full.

>>515333646
Those are the two possible outcomes but the probability of outcome A is not the same as outcome B.

>>515334057
The text of the question is "it's a gold ball"

>>515333728
It matters because it affects the probability that you picked box A rather than B and vice versa.

"Oy vey your vote should be determined by a specific scientific formula to determine compounding or deprecating probability that you learned once in 8th grade and never used again."

posters are doubling down on consensus (reddit) and authority (wiki) instead of actually reading and solving the problem. these hivemind posters are now attempting to gaslight and socially shame everybody who actually read and solved the problem which differs slightly from the original on reddit/wiki.
also nobody has yet to answer OP's question which is about the right to vote based on right brain cognitive ability or lack thereof.

>>515334021
The odds of which ball I pick next is the same as the odds of me haven picked the right box.

>>515334111
>but the probability of outcome A is not the same as outcome B
AFTER picking a ball, they are identical probabilities.
>
Nigger cannot accept that this is DYNAMIC MATHEMATICS... the problem changes as you make choices and gain more info.
>sad
This is why there were no Swedes on the Moon.

>>515318253
Im going with 33% chance.

>>515316054 (OP)
Fuck off

>>515334250
you've already picked the box by the time the problem starts. We're only asking you about the second ball from that box.

>>515328970
Wow, i never saw so many words and pictures to say "i am prone to gambling problems" before lol

>>515334183
Okay, I’m going to break it down step by step since what Nigel is trying to explain clearly isn’t getting through
>there are three boxes in front of you. Only two are relevant to our problem
>you randomly choose a box out of those two
>what is the probability that you chose the first box?

>>515333728
>The hypothetical states you have obtained a gold ball. There are only two boxes where this is possible and until you pull a 2nd ball it is unknown which one you have picked. Therefore the odds are 50/50.
You obviously do not understand the position you are arguing against.
You picked a box. You pull out a gold ball.
Which gold ball did you pull out?
There are three possible scenarios.
A) It was the first gold ball in Box A, leaving the second gold ball.
B) It was the second gold ball in Box A, leaving the first gold ball.
C) It was the gold ball in Box B, leaving a silver ball.

Somewhere in your logic you are conflating scenarios, either by assuming scenario A is the same as B or that scenario A is the same as C. It's not. Either way, you only get 50/50 by artificially eliminating one of the scenarios.
Again, it's not that we can't read - it's that your appraisal of the possible scenarios at hand somewhere conflates two of them, eliminating one.

>>515319850
no, there's only 2 boxes containin gold pcs. drawing from the same box again, chances are it's either the 2pc gold box or the 1pc gold box. so 50% it is.

>>515334259
No the probability is not the same.
If i pick a gold ball i’m twice as likely to have picked box A than B.

>>515333553
Nah that was my friend who got the education focus for his math degree. I went pure math to the detriment of my employability. I should have gone for compsci with math

>>515316054 (OP)

Look at all these gay replies, talking about balls!

50%, since you already know it can't be the box with 2 silver balls, so 2 possible boxes are left.
Before taking the first ball, the possibility is 1/3, since you don't know what the first ball is gonna be.

> should logic be a prerequisite for voting?
Idk, if missing logic is a factor that majorly contributes to a shift in voting, maybe education would be a better solution. For example, ban religion, since those nutjobs are to blame for southern stupidity.

>>515334475
You are wrong.
You cannot accept that and are calculating the probabilities at the START of the problem.
THAT IS NOT WHAT IS WRITTEN, MY NEGRO.
Learn to English?

>>515334397
you pulled a gold ball. It doesn't matter which anymore.

>>515334584
Why not?

>>515316054 (OP)
50/50

>>515334584
>golden ball made of melted down jew teeth from a death-camp (likely the one with wanking machines!)
So the question becomes;
>do you still want it?

>>515327415
If you throw them in the 3 boxes randomly, there's a 3/6*2/5 =1/5 chance that a box has two gold balls and a 2*3/6*3/5 = 3/5 chance that it has one of both kinds. Therefore, if you pick a gold ball, there's a 3/5 * 1/2 / (3/5 * 1/2 + 1/5) = 3/5 chance that the next ball is silver. If you just put them in order, it's the same as in OP, 1/3.

>>515334340
Indeed I have. Now which box did I pick? The one with two gold balls or the one with one gold ball and one silver ball.

This is fairly easy to deduce. The number of possible outcomes:

Box A
Gg
gG
Box B
Gs
Sg

I pick gold as first pick. I have 2/3 probability to have picked A and 1/3 probability to have picked box B.

From this hard fact we can deduce it’s 1/3 probability the next ball will be silver.

>>515334731
The question already describes A PROBLEM THAT HAS NARROWED.
Your long winded niggering is therefore irrelevant.
Learn to read and comprehend English?

>>515334642
because it has already happen in the past. It's no longer up in the air. We restrained the probability domain

>>515334848
It has narrowed but not to the extent you insist.
That's the mistake you are making.
It's narrowed down to which box is it more likely that we have - given that we drew a gold ball, is it more likely that we have the box with two of them or that we *happened* to draw the gold ball from the box with only one.

>>515317938
no you should tighten them

>>515334724
there's only one possible distribution of the 6pcs over 3 boxes. no matter the packing sequence, you'll always come up with the same result. 2/2;1/2;0/2. which given your first draw is gold, leaves a 50% chance for drawing gold from the same box.

>>515334731
>Now which box did I pick
One of the two boxes that had a gold ball in it.

Do you not understand that "IF you pick a gold ball then" and "you HAVE picked a gold ball, so" are different problems?

>>515334899
It is though, because we don't know which box we chose.
That's the point of the exercise.
We don't have Box 3.
Saying that the ball will be "gold" means we have Box 1.
Saying that the ball will be "silver" means we have Box 2.
If we pull gold, the odds we have Box 1 are 2/3 since two of the three gold balls are in there. There's only a 1/3 chance that we had actually picked Box 2.
You're dismissing the very thing we're trying to determine.

>>515334731
>Box A
>Gg
>gG
>Box B
>Gs
>Sg
That's wrong. Imagine if the first box had 10 gold balls instead. The probability for the second ball to be silver would still be 1/3, despite the first box being Ggggggggg gGggggg etc.

>>515335001
TWO POSSIBLE CHOICES.
THAT... in any system, IS 50/50.
>You are trying to pretend that WHICH gold ball of the PAIR in Box A matters
It does not.

>>515316054 (OP)
Yes. Please consider the ramifications of posting this thread again.

>>515335172
>Saying that the ball will be "gold" means we have Box 1.
>Saying that the ball will be "silver" means we have Box 2.
*think we have, let's be clear

>>515335065
What's your take on this?

>>515335091
Do you understand that the probability of me picking box A is greater than B?

Here’s the problem in a way even a retard can understand;

Box A two gold balls
Box B one gold ball and one silver ball

You pick a gold ball. Which box did you most likely pick?

Well seeing box A have two gold balls, while B have one, it seems more likely my hand is in A.

>>515316054 (OP)
0% because the gold and silver balls are gone. I don't know where they went.

>>515335301
THIS explains the Wuhan Flu.

>>515335200
It absolutely does though.
You are combining two of the scenarios into one, giving the illusion of two when there are in fact three.
This is the mistake in your logic.

>>515335358
THEM FUCKING JEWS!

>>515335301
the earth is actually flat

>>515320321
English speakers are poor mathematicians. America is propped up by foreigners, take that away from them and you're left with code monkeys. "If" here is incredibly important.

>>515335091
chances are the same for silver. the question is retarded and no fun in solving this. should be: "if your first draw is gold and you want gold, would you choose another box for your second draw?"

>>515335345
just answer the question: >>515335091

>>515335400
>This is the mistake in your logic.
It isn't.
You are complicating a simple situation that would be easy to automate.
Go wrote an algorithm in Python and SHOW the distribution tends toward your figures.
I can wait.
It will tend toward 50/50.
That is how reality works.

>>515335172
"If" we pull gold then you're right. Except it's not an if, we did.

>>515334183
You're getting hung up on the initial setup and ignoring the partial outcome you already have.

The question you are answering is "What are the odds of you having picked a box with two gold balls if you have already picked a gold ball from that box?"

The question in OP's picture is "You have obtained a random ball from the boxes, what are the odds it is box B?"

If you can't see the difference then whatever, we'll never agree

>>515335525
Incorrect, German anon. English speakers that are stupid are bad at math.
You have the same relative population of poor mathematicians.

>>515335091
German explaining English?
Fucking Heil
IF indicates a situation WHERE WE HAVE.
You go on the basis if that hypothetical situation which we are being asked to describe mathematically, which means in that situation 'we have to imagine WE HAVE'.
>Q.E.D.
IF == HAVE
in this case.
Learn to English, von Herman.

>>515335692
>The question in OP's picture is "You have obtained a random ball from the boxes, what are the odds it is box B?"
It's actually not. It's more like "You have obtained a random ball from the boxes. You are in a universe where that ball is golden. What are the odds that the box is B?"

>>515335622
>Go wrote an algorithm in Python and SHOW the distribution tends toward your figures.
i did this once for a different problem and some guy with a turban came out of nowhere, pulled a knife out of his belt and started dancing around me.

>>515335622
Sorry, I primarily work with real programming languages like C/C++.
But I can see where (You) would use Python.
You are oversimplifying a situation that is more complex than you'd like it to be to compensate for being wrong.
It's typical of narcissists and others who can't admit they're wrong.
Sorry. You're dead wrong on this.
And I'm moving on.

>>515335887
that doesnt really change it. The odds are mirrored for both colours. Please tell me you're a 50/50 gigachad

>>515335893
>The Stabby Paki Conjecture
I attended a lecture about that some time ago.
Fascinating.

>>515335989
I'm afraid I'm a Bayesian 1/3 virgin.

>>515335942
>yawn
>u r ded rong
Cannot explain why except using AN ARGUMENT FROM AUTHORITY.
>autofail

>>515335878
>German explaining English
It's more common than you think.
Some of us even speak exclusively English.

>>515336045
then can you explain why you happening to have obtained a gold ball or silver ball changes the simplified version of OP's question? Or do you disagree that that is what it is asking

>>515336152
He can only do this by reinterpreting the question, like all these 1/3 mongs.

>>515336110
>speak exclusively English
*exclusively speak English
You're welcome.

>>515335878
mathematics are a language of their own. I'm explaining mathematics to you. Your ignorance of that fact leads me to believe you also don't know what if and only if means or other mathematical concepts that aren't used when having a lager at the pub with the mates

>>515336088
>Cannot explain why except using AN ARGUMENT FROM AUTHORITY.
he didn't tho, he literally explained multiple times why you were wrong and all you could do was go "n...nooooo u making it too complex!" like a goddamn nigger
and now you're crying about irrelevant logical fallacies because not only are you a nigger but a jewish one

>>515336257
>you also don't know what if and only if means
>yawn
Keep on with that argument from authority fallacy.
I'm sure you'll reach your goal eventually.

>>515336152
When you pick up a ball, all the options are still open. When you realise that the ball is golden, it gives you information about which of the random universes or futures you've ended up in. Now some of them are more likely than others, and some are entirely out of the question. For instance, once you realise that the ball is golden, you know that you're not in a universe where you chose the third box.

>>515336336
>he didn't tho
*though
You're welcome too.
What we have here in this bread is a failure of foreigners to understand English.
You too, little usa.

>>515335301
slightly less than 2%

>>515336399
Once you have a golden ball in your hand, you realize you beat the juden and the FED can be destroyed.

>>515336243
>you're welcome
>is fucking wrong
"Speak exclusively English" means only speaks English, due to capability.
"Exclusively speaks English" means makes a choice to communicate only in English, despite ability to speak other languages.
Enjoy, dumb fuck.

>>515336538
Mericans. kek.

>>515336490
1/51 or a bit more than that?

>>515336243
>>515336454
Good job, you absolutely roasted those pigs.
Pat yourself on the back. This is what winning feels like.
You're the man.

>>515336712
Did you type that while dilating?

>>515318643
interesting take

>>515336613
>word order matters
>until you point out that I pointed it out wrong

>>515336782
What kind of question is that?
You got those guys good.

>>515336399
the hypothetical is badly formulated. It is not the Monty Hall problem.

You have a golden ball. You are not seeking golden balls. You just have picked a ball from a box at random and the colour split is 50/50 so you're just as likely to have any colour in your hand. It just happens to be golden. The only thing you know from this is that since one of the balls is golden it cannot have come from box c where bother were silver. Beyond that you have no idea about the boxes because they are identical except one now only has one ball. I cannot stress any more that the question in OP's picture is BADLY FORMULATED. It looks like something it isnt. Try reading it again with that understanding.

>>515336857
kek
So you actually meant all that bs supposition you wrote as to what the word order meant?
kek
Mericans. kek x2

>>515336372
is "if and only if" an english concept or a mathematical concept?

>>515336887
>sarcasm suspected
This is /pol/.

>>515336942
You tell him!

>>515336942
>this poster believes himself to appear british

>>515336989
Not at all, I'm really impressed with the arguments you're making.
You're making good arguments, right? Why can't someone be impressed?

>>515336974
Both, Helmut.
And being so good at the English, you'd know that.

>>515316054 (OP)
>Should someone's proficiency in logic and reasoning determine whether they get to vote or not?
It's the other way around: voting determines that you're a fucking retard.

>>515336974
It's a logic concept. One might even call it a constraint.

>>515337048
/pol/ RULE #369
>when losing, accuse winning opponent of being a paki

>>515335091
it's the same premise, ending with you having one gold pc in your hand. the question doesn't bother with the possibility of the first draw being silver. and it wouldn't matter. IF first draw silver, what chance second draw is gold, when drawn from same box. that'd be 50% as well.

>>515335301
I thought 95% too. If the answer is not 95% then I’m not sure what retardation is occurring with how we describe false positive rates.

>>515337191
>when losing
I explained myself. You did not query or elaborate.
You became the nigger.

>>515337056
>Why can't someone be impressed?
The British are used to being inside a circle of hostile foreigners, worthless pompous americans and ugly jews, all attacking them at once.
I like to keep my hand in.
It's damn good practice posting winning arguments on /pol/.
Helps me survive on the stabby foggy streets of ol' England Town.

>>515336974
it's a passive aggressive expression used by people who like the sound of their own voice to use more words when posing their dumb trick questions or for when you think you're talking to an idiot.

>>515337276
>You did not query or elaborate.
It was beneath me. I though it was merican humor.
Nobody could type what you did with a straight face, unless they were clueless and pompous.

>>515336899
Well if you enumerate all the possible universes, the probabilities should even out in all cases. E.g., if you pick a gold ball, you know you're not in the universe where you picked box 3. And if you picked a silver ball, you know you didn't pick box 1. If, after picking a golden ball, the probability were split 50/60 between box 1 and box 2, and, if, after picking a silver ball, the probability were 50/50 between box 2 and box 3, you notice that box 2 is the most probable universe of all, don't you? But since all boxes should be equally likely, the 50/50 result must be wrong.

>>515337515
One of us is clearly oblivious, and you insisting it has to be me without elaboration is not helping matters.
By all means, disabuse me of the notion that I understand word order.

>>515337265
A false positive of 5 % means that if you're healthy, the test has a 5 % chance to label you as sick anyway.

The correct answer is 20/1019 ≈ 2 %. It's the exact same Bayesian probability you'd use to figure out OP's question too, so I thought it'd be relevant here.

>>515337711
its not relevant and youre braindead. 50% is correct answer and there is no other even hypothetical answer.

The problem is with the question.
It allows dirty foeriegners to misread it and assume they know what it is asking, then they can persist in fallacious arguments, when in fact it is capable of being read as ambiguous as to at what point the question begins and the probability should be calculated.
Everything that results is based on this.
>
"I spend 3hrs shaping the question... then 5 mins solving it." Albert Einstein, 1922.

>>515337265
it's deliberately or stupidly badly worded, especially when considering the bbc easy language candidates.
should be: out of 1000 people 1 is probably ill. 1000 tests will produce 50 false positives and one correct positive.

>>515337526
again for some reason you're shoehorning in some sort of probability from the first ball. This one makes no sense but the impulse is the same. Just reread the question in OP's picture and keep in mind it was written by an idiot.

>>515337711
Where the fuck did the 20 come from?

>>515337939
It's just a prettier way to write the fraction.
1/1000 chance that you have the disease and a positive result
5/100 * 999/1000 chance that you have a positive result but no disease
1/1000 + 5/100 * 999/1000 that there's a positive result
The chance that you have the disease is (1/1000)/(1/1000 + 5/100 * 999/1000) = 20/1019

>>515337924
I showed a contradiction in your result, though.
If you have a gold ball, it's 50/50 between box 1 and and box 2
If you have a silver ball, it's 50/50 between box 2 and box 3
These are the only possible universes, of course, since there are only silver and gold balls. But you notice that box 2 is the most probable of these unvierses, being twice as probable as either of the two others. That's a contradiction. Therefore, 50/50 is wrong.

>>515337711
This did not clarify anything.
If we have 100 different people with positive test results, the expectation is 5 are false positives.

If we pick one at random, there is a 95% chance they did have the illness.

I stab the nigger before he stabs me.

>>515337857
The number of tests is irrelevant because you are dealing with one person who was already tested and found positive.

The real problem is the question itself.
>
Firstly there are the mericans, who are mostly illiterate so they can all be ignored without hesitation.
Then there are the foreigners who haven't a clue how English works, so they can be discarded next.
There there are the mathematicians who are always looking to make the simple over-complicated.
And then, and only then, there is the question itself.
>
This question is a nigga-filter.
It is not a math question.
Once you realize that, you can pass it by and move on to the next filtration stage.

>>515338350
No, the false positives would be way more than that. Take 1000 people. One of those is sick, 50 are false positives. Aboutish.