Thread 520151812

If you don't know this graph, then it's very grim. You know how CPI is a basket of observable prices of things they look at (rent, energy, goods, and so on)? Whether or not you agree on this basket is another topic altogether, and inconsequential anyway as long as the basket remains consistent across years.
Well, just know that there's usually on this basket ~10% reserved to estimated/statistical prices instead of real observable ones.
Suddenly this 10% is now 40% of the basket.
I don't think I need to spell it to you what this means. You're a sound adult, you should understand.

The graph is correct.

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40% of the inflation-basket-measurement is now not made out of actual observed prices of goods, rents, energy and so on, but on statistical hand-waved bullshit. Notice the change. Shouldn't be hard.
This is textbook how you cook numbers btw. This is CPI numbers cooking at levels only ever seen in chinkland and in the USSR.

In the past they'd make us go into each business record and enter the revenue by hand. We'd make up an estimate exactly like the computer did, but it didn't count as imputed because an "analyst" signed off on the data. My guess is that going forward the agencies aren't going to have the manpower to cook the books by hand so they'll just report higher imputation.

how many layers deep of fuckery are we in now?

>>520152202
yes

40% imputation means that 40% of the value of whatever cpi metric in the graph is a non-response estimate. Meaning they have no idea what the true value is and 40% of it is simply made up by the BLS. In my experience imputation of business firm revenue is calculated by taking their IRS payroll and multiplying it by the NAICS industry average ratio of payroll to revenue. Now as less and less firms fill out surveys, the ratio itself is built on nothing.

In the past they'd make us go into each business record and enter the revenue by hand. We'd make up an estimate exactly like the computer did, but it didn't count as imputed because an "analyst" signed off on the data. My guess is that going forward the agencies aren't going to have the manpower to cook the books by hand so they'll just report higher imputation.

>>520151812 (OP)
CPI is bullshit to hide real inflation and its effects.