>>520904381 (OP)
Prior to 2022
>Consolidate centralized political control of Russia under the Chekhist faction
>Get Germany hooked on cheap petrochemicals then use leverage over the heart of Europe to wrench Europe out of the US's sphere of influence, return to prominence in Eastern European affairs, get the USA out of NATO
>As part of that, prevent significant non-EU energy competitors via geopolitical sabotage (ie, preventing a pipeline from the gulf to Turkey by projecting power in Syria, preventing a Trans-Saharan pipeline by working in the Sahel, minimize Caucasian and Caspian alternatives by controlling the Caucasus, and prevent development of Ukrainian resources in Donbass
>Use the influence and revenues from petrochemical resources to build infrastructure for the Northeast Passage, monopolize the EU-CN trade since this route is ~33% more efficient than any other, become incredibly rich and influential as every single power that controlled East-West trade has always been
Post 2022
>oh shid it didnt worked :---DDDDDD
Nigger seriously got caught map painting in a paradox game. The Ukraine gambit was so fucking stupid. Biden was even basically giving him an out assuming he'd just take Donbass, which would permanently seize ~70% of Ukrainian petrochemical resources and prevent a major competitor from emerging. Now it's a fucking utter disaster. US/Turkey/NATO are replacing Russia as mediators in Armenia/Azerbaijan dispute and Russia's oil economy is basically fucked.
This all depended on timing. Global peak oil demand will likely hit in 2026/2027. Russian peak production probably in 2027/2028 and Russia's 'easy' oil will mostly disappear in the 2030s which is around the time the NE passage will really come into commercial viability from a climate perspective. But if the infrastructure isn't there competing projects like B&R may end up supplanting it.