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ID: oCKR13Z6/biz/60504004#60504286
6/14/2025, 8:17:34 PM
We may not see a massive Vol event from this, as a lot of the short Vol positions got BTFO during the tariff decline.
We are more likely to see a gradual (but still potentially sizable) decline in the indexes, with relatively low realized volatility.
It has to be said that the US economy is not in an amazing position for this.
We are late cycle, with high but falling employment, the US government is pursuing stagflationary policy and there was already a high risk of fed policy mistake.
Low oil prices had been one deflationary and pro-growth factor making things easier for the US and the fed and this has the potential to flip into a major headwind if those prices rise considerably.
We are more likely to see a gradual (but still potentially sizable) decline in the indexes, with relatively low realized volatility.
It has to be said that the US economy is not in an amazing position for this.
We are late cycle, with high but falling employment, the US government is pursuing stagflationary policy and there was already a high risk of fed policy mistake.
Low oil prices had been one deflationary and pro-growth factor making things easier for the US and the fed and this has the potential to flip into a major headwind if those prices rise considerably.
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