50/50 US gets directly involved in offensive operations against Iran
If it happens, I expect oil to $200 a barrel
Expensive oil will make mining more expensive (also more demand for solar panels), gold and silver to moon
Also this war isn't going that great for Israel after their initial successes in sneak attack.
They aren't showing sat images of Israel.
They are banning people from filming damage on the ground.
They cut off live streams from Haifa.
We are being denied info and we are being propagandized.
Maybe the US dosne't attack, maybe there is a ceasefire and its all good.
But if the US attacks global economy will undergo severe disruptions.
If the US attacks, Iran will retaliate against US bases and dozens of US military members will probably die in the first day.
Strait of Hormuz prolly closed.
Decent chance China gets involved if US attacks, probably subtly but could throw in like they did in Korea after the US took Pyongyang.
Could cause major domestic unrest - unpopular war + spiked inflation.
Stay safe and don't forget to get shelf-stable food and water, even if this turns out to be a nothingburger.