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ID: 2ZZ8yiBR/biz/60662202#60664571
7/21/2025, 1:51:22 AM
>>60664070
>a lot if strong companies did dip hard due to tariffs rather than a weakness in their business itself
UNH isn't dipping because of the tariffs. It's down for two reasons:
>trump is cutting medicare and govt subsidies, crushing the profit margin
>it turns out they were cheating on their billing from the getgo, defrauding both the govt for added revenue and investors for added capital
The bear thesis is that this company only got as big as it did because of foul play, and now they have to play fair in a much less profitable environment, meaning there's no guarantee of recovery.
>>60664032
The bull thesis (I'm long at $301 btw):
UNH is as big as Coca-Cola, Chevron, IBM, etc. It has contractual relationships with tons of employers and is an important partner for the government as well. Companies like that don't magically lose half their value on bad news during a bull market. All those employees, clientele, and lobbying relationships still exist. Long-term we'll probably crab around $350 until Trump leaves office then return to $600.
Sell lots of calls on this stock and look at it as a discount on future port growth. I don't think these sub-300 prices are going to last past next week's ER.
>a lot if strong companies did dip hard due to tariffs rather than a weakness in their business itself
UNH isn't dipping because of the tariffs. It's down for two reasons:
>trump is cutting medicare and govt subsidies, crushing the profit margin
>it turns out they were cheating on their billing from the getgo, defrauding both the govt for added revenue and investors for added capital
The bear thesis is that this company only got as big as it did because of foul play, and now they have to play fair in a much less profitable environment, meaning there's no guarantee of recovery.
>>60664032
The bull thesis (I'm long at $301 btw):
UNH is as big as Coca-Cola, Chevron, IBM, etc. It has contractual relationships with tons of employers and is an important partner for the government as well. Companies like that don't magically lose half their value on bad news during a bull market. All those employees, clientele, and lobbying relationships still exist. Long-term we'll probably crab around $350 until Trump leaves office then return to $600.
Sell lots of calls on this stock and look at it as a discount on future port growth. I don't think these sub-300 prices are going to last past next week's ER.
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