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8/2/2025, 6:52:31 PM
>>106117329
>no finite amount of data can raise the posterior probability in favor of the experimental hypothesis above 0, thereby conferring illusory legitimacy on the most anti-scientific stance.
Nah no one has a prior that's absolutely 0. It's just that in the face of such an extreme claim other hypothesis will become more likely (fabricated/selected data, experimenter collusion). I don't trust stuff like >>106117689 because all those CIA studies being referenced were done in a totally unsupervised "just trust me bro" way by people with a vested interest in proving psi exists, if for nothing other than an easy paycheck. Or shit like >>106117329 where the dude includes a fuck ton of his own studies which is actually retarded and you should feel stupid for believing.
What would be cool is an open source project that provides some kind of trustless distributed framework for conducting precognition experiments like pic related. Something that anyone could spin up an instance of and that had some kind of cryptographic guarantee that the results were not modified. I would be way more inclined to believe that.
>no finite amount of data can raise the posterior probability in favor of the experimental hypothesis above 0, thereby conferring illusory legitimacy on the most anti-scientific stance.
Nah no one has a prior that's absolutely 0. It's just that in the face of such an extreme claim other hypothesis will become more likely (fabricated/selected data, experimenter collusion). I don't trust stuff like >>106117689 because all those CIA studies being referenced were done in a totally unsupervised "just trust me bro" way by people with a vested interest in proving psi exists, if for nothing other than an easy paycheck. Or shit like >>106117329 where the dude includes a fuck ton of his own studies which is actually retarded and you should feel stupid for believing.
What would be cool is an open source project that provides some kind of trustless distributed framework for conducting precognition experiments like pic related. Something that anyone could spin up an instance of and that had some kind of cryptographic guarantee that the results were not modified. I would be way more inclined to believe that.
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