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ID: yg9GNi3S/biz/60749042#60750521
8/7/2025, 8:26:33 AM
>>60750509
>>60750517
>“We have an economy with really just one dynamic sector, the tech sector,” says Dean Baker, the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a think tank.
>Jobs data on Friday showed a major slowdown in employment. Instead of the 110,000 new jobs economists had expected for June, non-farm payroll employment – a key measure of job creation – rose by just 73,000. Meanwhile, estimates for May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000, the largest two-month downward revision excluding the pandemic.
>“The biggest alarm bells are in the labour market,” says Gbenga Ajilore, the chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP).
>Ajilore puts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 55pc. “It would be 100pc self-inflicted,” he says.
>Trump was so rocked by the jobs figures that he immediately sacked Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ commissioner, making an unfounded claim that the numbers had been “rigged”.
>His move has sparked warnings of threats to financial stability as the credibility of US statistics comes under question. Michael Feroli, of JP Morgan, warned that trust in the bureau’s inflation data was essential for the $2.1tn market for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
>The revision of the jobs numbers probably reflected the fact that smaller companies, who are feeling the worst of Trump’s tariff and immigration policies, were late to respond to the survey.
>They had other things on their minds: the manufacturing sector, for example, has now shed 33,000 jobs since the start of the year.
>“Tariffs have had a major impact on manufacturing in the US,” says Tom Derry, the chief executive of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
>>60750517
>“We have an economy with really just one dynamic sector, the tech sector,” says Dean Baker, the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a think tank.
>Jobs data on Friday showed a major slowdown in employment. Instead of the 110,000 new jobs economists had expected for June, non-farm payroll employment – a key measure of job creation – rose by just 73,000. Meanwhile, estimates for May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000, the largest two-month downward revision excluding the pandemic.
>“The biggest alarm bells are in the labour market,” says Gbenga Ajilore, the chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP).
>Ajilore puts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 55pc. “It would be 100pc self-inflicted,” he says.
>Trump was so rocked by the jobs figures that he immediately sacked Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ commissioner, making an unfounded claim that the numbers had been “rigged”.
>His move has sparked warnings of threats to financial stability as the credibility of US statistics comes under question. Michael Feroli, of JP Morgan, warned that trust in the bureau’s inflation data was essential for the $2.1tn market for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
>The revision of the jobs numbers probably reflected the fact that smaller companies, who are feeling the worst of Trump’s tariff and immigration policies, were late to respond to the survey.
>They had other things on their minds: the manufacturing sector, for example, has now shed 33,000 jobs since the start of the year.
>“Tariffs have had a major impact on manufacturing in the US,” says Tom Derry, the chief executive of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
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