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8/4/2025, 8:12:18 AM
>>512179100
Honestly, all I really see are scattered regional pockets of unrest - inland-rural, coastal-urban, or both - with the potential to connect and get out of hand. 19th Century style formal national split virtually impossible; Spain/Syria style multifactional conflict not impossible but rather unlikely.
So basically, small outbursts of disorganized anarchy that the federal government is forced to stabilize, which if carried out improperly could have awful optics and lead to a wildfire situation.
Known-known risk is dems/latinos hostile to ICE in the Southwest and to a lesser extent in other major cities escalating.
Known-unknown risk is some final nail in the coffin by the admin pissing off middle America, and some ragtag actors acting out in a few areas and things gradually going katamari damacy.
Unknown unknown - "Peaceable Americans" scenario - neither happens, no clear signs of political tension; pure black swan meltdown. Potentially starts from within the power system.
Honestly, all I really see are scattered regional pockets of unrest - inland-rural, coastal-urban, or both - with the potential to connect and get out of hand. 19th Century style formal national split virtually impossible; Spain/Syria style multifactional conflict not impossible but rather unlikely.
So basically, small outbursts of disorganized anarchy that the federal government is forced to stabilize, which if carried out improperly could have awful optics and lead to a wildfire situation.
Known-known risk is dems/latinos hostile to ICE in the Southwest and to a lesser extent in other major cities escalating.
Known-unknown risk is some final nail in the coffin by the admin pissing off middle America, and some ragtag actors acting out in a few areas and things gradually going katamari damacy.
Unknown unknown - "Peaceable Americans" scenario - neither happens, no clear signs of political tension; pure black swan meltdown. Potentially starts from within the power system.
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