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6/19/2025, 3:35:05 AM
iranian-american here to give my diasporoid opinion
>1) Can the US damage Iran's nuclear infrastructure?
The us may be able to take Fordow out of operation. Even if they are able to disable the site, they are probably not likely to destroy it. And even if they were able, the Iranian state has other sites and other stockpiles which may be secret
>2) can the US overthrow the government?
not through air strikes alone. it would require a ground campaign which isn't coming. Overthrowing the government will require the participation of the Iranian people. The people by and large want a new government. They are very unhappy with the current one. But they don't want the country to come apart at the seams and they do not want chaos. At the same time, Iranians are very scared by the bombings and there has been a rally-round-the-flag effect. I think if there is a ceasefire and things cool down for a while, people will get angry again and an uprising against the Islamic Republic may materialize
>3) can they do this without facing any repercussions from Russia and China?
yes probably. The Chinese and Russians are best seen as "partners" of Islamic Iran. Not "allies" in a traditional sense. I think both the Russians and Chinese would be happy to see a new government that was not religiously ideological and was a more rational actor. Both China and Russia have ties to Israel and China's reliance on trade with the west is well-known. But the iranians have tricks up their sleeve as well. if they choose to they can severely hamper or close off entirely the oil trade through the Persian Gulf and could destroy the oil and gas facilities in the Persian Gulf. They can do this from land using anti-ship, cruise, and ballistic missiles. Whether or not the Iranian regime will do this is I think unlikely. The regime's number one priority now is survival. But if they chose to do their own "Samson Option", the world would see economic consequences not seen since the oil shock in the 70s.
>1) Can the US damage Iran's nuclear infrastructure?
The us may be able to take Fordow out of operation. Even if they are able to disable the site, they are probably not likely to destroy it. And even if they were able, the Iranian state has other sites and other stockpiles which may be secret
>2) can the US overthrow the government?
not through air strikes alone. it would require a ground campaign which isn't coming. Overthrowing the government will require the participation of the Iranian people. The people by and large want a new government. They are very unhappy with the current one. But they don't want the country to come apart at the seams and they do not want chaos. At the same time, Iranians are very scared by the bombings and there has been a rally-round-the-flag effect. I think if there is a ceasefire and things cool down for a while, people will get angry again and an uprising against the Islamic Republic may materialize
>3) can they do this without facing any repercussions from Russia and China?
yes probably. The Chinese and Russians are best seen as "partners" of Islamic Iran. Not "allies" in a traditional sense. I think both the Russians and Chinese would be happy to see a new government that was not religiously ideological and was a more rational actor. Both China and Russia have ties to Israel and China's reliance on trade with the west is well-known. But the iranians have tricks up their sleeve as well. if they choose to they can severely hamper or close off entirely the oil trade through the Persian Gulf and could destroy the oil and gas facilities in the Persian Gulf. They can do this from land using anti-ship, cruise, and ballistic missiles. Whether or not the Iranian regime will do this is I think unlikely. The regime's number one priority now is survival. But if they chose to do their own "Samson Option", the world would see economic consequences not seen since the oil shock in the 70s.
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