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6/18/2025, 2:45:42 AM
>>95894370
Mill doesn't prevent you from playing your deck. Some decks even do better with more gas in the graveyard. It just filters brainlets because "i was gonna draw that" is textbook hindsight bias.
Say you're running a big stompy green deck with 8 mana coming down at the start of your turn. You really want your Craterhoof Behemoth, as the board has no answers to it and lets just ballpark you having 71 cards left in your deck; but I'm gonna hit you with the aptly named Predict on your upkeep, milling you for 1 naming Craterhoof. There are three possible worlds that result from this:
The first world is your draw for turn was Craterhoof, it goes to the graveyard and I draw two cards because I'm a supergenius.
The second world, is your draw for turn wasn't Craterhoof and you draw a completely different card. It is possible that this card could win you the game this turn, but we're going to assume it's just going to be a solid play.
The third world is that your draw for turn was not Craterhoof, until I milled off your 'next' card and you drew it on your turn.
The odds of the first world occurring, all other things equal, is 1 in 71.
The odds of the second world occurring, all other things equal is 68 in 70.
The odds of the final world occurring, all other things equal is 1 in 70.
For each additional card milled the first world becomes more likely, but you'll notice something odd. Lets Archive Trap you:
The odds of the first world becomes 13 in 71.
The odds of the second world becomes 57 in 58.
The odds of the final world become 1 in 58.
Notice that while the odds of milling the Crater went up, so too did the odds of drawing it from the remaining cards. In fact the odds of milling it went up from 1.4% to a whopping 18.3%, but the odds of drawing it went from 1.4% to 1.7%. You have roughly a 4 in 5 chance of mill actually making that win more likely. This is pretending a world where cards cannot be recurred from the graveyard.
Mill doesn't prevent you from playing your deck. Some decks even do better with more gas in the graveyard. It just filters brainlets because "i was gonna draw that" is textbook hindsight bias.
Say you're running a big stompy green deck with 8 mana coming down at the start of your turn. You really want your Craterhoof Behemoth, as the board has no answers to it and lets just ballpark you having 71 cards left in your deck; but I'm gonna hit you with the aptly named Predict on your upkeep, milling you for 1 naming Craterhoof. There are three possible worlds that result from this:
The first world is your draw for turn was Craterhoof, it goes to the graveyard and I draw two cards because I'm a supergenius.
The second world, is your draw for turn wasn't Craterhoof and you draw a completely different card. It is possible that this card could win you the game this turn, but we're going to assume it's just going to be a solid play.
The third world is that your draw for turn was not Craterhoof, until I milled off your 'next' card and you drew it on your turn.
The odds of the first world occurring, all other things equal, is 1 in 71.
The odds of the second world occurring, all other things equal is 68 in 70.
The odds of the final world occurring, all other things equal is 1 in 70.
For each additional card milled the first world becomes more likely, but you'll notice something odd. Lets Archive Trap you:
The odds of the first world becomes 13 in 71.
The odds of the second world becomes 57 in 58.
The odds of the final world become 1 in 58.
Notice that while the odds of milling the Crater went up, so too did the odds of drawing it from the remaining cards. In fact the odds of milling it went up from 1.4% to a whopping 18.3%, but the odds of drawing it went from 1.4% to 1.7%. You have roughly a 4 in 5 chance of mill actually making that win more likely. This is pretending a world where cards cannot be recurred from the graveyard.
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