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7/27/2025, 8:57:15 PM
>>64038540
I will be generous and assume that you are genuinely curious.
>amphibious landing from the sea in the south
The Black Sea is in NO state to seriously contest the waters around Odesa, much less support a sustained military effort.
Doing so anyways would result in the complete degradation of the Black Sea Fleet, likely seeing most of their remaining combat ships sunk.
>Air assault
In Russian doctrine (based on earlier Soviet doctrine), air assaults are an opening gambit, to be done at the start of hostilities, before the enemy nation or group has mobilized. See Afghanistan, Czechia, or Hostomel.
At this stage in hostilities, a massed air assault without air supremacy AND real destruction of Ukrainian air defenses would be near-suicide.
>Invasion of Belarus
This is the most credible one, but still very unlikely. Short answer is: Logistical support for any Russian campaign would be more difficult, while being easier for the Ukrainians.
I will be generous and assume that you are genuinely curious.
>amphibious landing from the sea in the south
The Black Sea is in NO state to seriously contest the waters around Odesa, much less support a sustained military effort.
Doing so anyways would result in the complete degradation of the Black Sea Fleet, likely seeing most of their remaining combat ships sunk.
>Air assault
In Russian doctrine (based on earlier Soviet doctrine), air assaults are an opening gambit, to be done at the start of hostilities, before the enemy nation or group has mobilized. See Afghanistan, Czechia, or Hostomel.
At this stage in hostilities, a massed air assault without air supremacy AND real destruction of Ukrainian air defenses would be near-suicide.
>Invasion of Belarus
This is the most credible one, but still very unlikely. Short answer is: Logistical support for any Russian campaign would be more difficult, while being easier for the Ukrainians.
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