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7/26/2025, 7:36:26 AM
>>102738548
>>102738489
>>102738656
No one cares about finance nitpicking on /vt/, but I'm drunk and annoyed, so here we go.
People theorycrafting corporate finances online, with minimal information, is utter ass. One person will say "they lost X per year" and someone else comes back with "no they had to be losing Y per year" because no one stops to actually clarify if their handwave estimates are gross expenditures, net losses, or negative net cashflow.
The fact is we don't know any of those numbers.
Here's my approach with BIG UPFRONT ASSUMPTIONS.
Let's assume the following:
(1) The $11M of equity and/or debt financing was publicized in March 2022 is the only external financing (probably not true!).
(2) We will ignore any initial personal investment made by the founders (probably should be >$0, but utterly unknown).
(3) Cashflow was low enough to stop some payouts in mid-2024 (based on Kson's statements).
(4) VShojo continued to pay for basic salaries and services into Q2 2025, thus they may have had $1M to $2M in their accounts before they started tightening up in mid-2024 (wild guess based on my personal experience with salaries and services).
With those assumptions, I will estimate their negative net cashflow.
This would have had to be $4M to $5M per year, for the approximately-two-years from March 2022 to the middle of 2024.
NOTE #1: This DOES NOT actually tell you how much money they were "losing" in terms of net losses!
This is just an estimate of negative cashflow that may have forced their hand. From what we know, they probably had more unpaid invoices, contracts, etc. and simply not paid out yet. Worded differently: their negative net cashflow (the $4M-$5M estimate) probably under-estimates their true accounting losses.
NOTE #2: You may think "Wow $4M/year is a lot!" but maybe not? You need to know more. It is very different to have your business "lose $4M" when you take in $100M and spend $104M than it is to "lose $4M" when you take in $10M and spend $14M.
FINAL NOTE: If you change ANY small detail of of my 4 assumptions above, the numbers change. Accounting speculation is fraught and kinda pointless when you have this little information.
>>102738489
>>102738656
No one cares about finance nitpicking on /vt/, but I'm drunk and annoyed, so here we go.
People theorycrafting corporate finances online, with minimal information, is utter ass. One person will say "they lost X per year" and someone else comes back with "no they had to be losing Y per year" because no one stops to actually clarify if their handwave estimates are gross expenditures, net losses, or negative net cashflow.
The fact is we don't know any of those numbers.
Here's my approach with BIG UPFRONT ASSUMPTIONS.
Let's assume the following:
(1) The $11M of equity and/or debt financing was publicized in March 2022 is the only external financing (probably not true!).
(2) We will ignore any initial personal investment made by the founders (probably should be >$0, but utterly unknown).
(3) Cashflow was low enough to stop some payouts in mid-2024 (based on Kson's statements).
(4) VShojo continued to pay for basic salaries and services into Q2 2025, thus they may have had $1M to $2M in their accounts before they started tightening up in mid-2024 (wild guess based on my personal experience with salaries and services).
With those assumptions, I will estimate their negative net cashflow.
This would have had to be $4M to $5M per year, for the approximately-two-years from March 2022 to the middle of 2024.
NOTE #1: This DOES NOT actually tell you how much money they were "losing" in terms of net losses!
This is just an estimate of negative cashflow that may have forced their hand. From what we know, they probably had more unpaid invoices, contracts, etc. and simply not paid out yet. Worded differently: their negative net cashflow (the $4M-$5M estimate) probably under-estimates their true accounting losses.
NOTE #2: You may think "Wow $4M/year is a lot!" but maybe not? You need to know more. It is very different to have your business "lose $4M" when you take in $100M and spend $104M than it is to "lose $4M" when you take in $10M and spend $14M.
FINAL NOTE: If you change ANY small detail of of my 4 assumptions above, the numbers change. Accounting speculation is fraught and kinda pointless when you have this little information.
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