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6/24/2025, 8:15:45 AM
Some thoughts on the upcoming chinese F9 clones
TL-3: Probably most direct F9 clone on this list, Kerolox, 9 engines, similar payload. Nothing interesting. The only notable thing is that they are the most likely to land first, considering their proposed launch rate and the fact that they are aggressively pushing for a landing on their 1st or 2nd launch, as compared to the other companies that aren't even trying until they have a handful of launches under their belt. Small chance of landing in 2025, every other rocket on this list will land in 2026/2027.
ZQ-3- The most interesting rocket here. Stainless steel and methalox. There's a whole bunch of questions as to why they went for stainless steel despite the increased weight? Did they do it because it will help with reuse, cut down on any potential damage and reimbursement time? Maybe they don't have to fire their engines to slow their 1st stage down if the stainless steel can tank the heat. But the existing aluminum alloy don't seem to be an issue with the F9. Maybe they just want more experience with stainless steel since they are one the few companies that are also keen on developing a Starship clone, and the ZQ-3 is just stopgap design before they rush into developing their Starship clone.
Lijian: Payload is not very impressive given it's tripe core design. Only notable thing is that they are planning to land the entire triple core 1st stage together as one unit. I feel like it's gonna take them a lot of tries before they can succeed. Not very impressed with this rocket.
Pallas 1: At only 8 tons to LEO, it's the 2nd least powerful rocket on this list. Another pretty similar F9 clone, with 7 engines instead of 9. Will need to pivot into their triple core FH design fast if they want to snag mega-constellation launches; with their low payload.
Hyperbola-3: Other than using methalox, not much to say, another very similar F9 clone. Middle of the road payload. Not very impressive.
TL-3: Probably most direct F9 clone on this list, Kerolox, 9 engines, similar payload. Nothing interesting. The only notable thing is that they are the most likely to land first, considering their proposed launch rate and the fact that they are aggressively pushing for a landing on their 1st or 2nd launch, as compared to the other companies that aren't even trying until they have a handful of launches under their belt. Small chance of landing in 2025, every other rocket on this list will land in 2026/2027.
ZQ-3- The most interesting rocket here. Stainless steel and methalox. There's a whole bunch of questions as to why they went for stainless steel despite the increased weight? Did they do it because it will help with reuse, cut down on any potential damage and reimbursement time? Maybe they don't have to fire their engines to slow their 1st stage down if the stainless steel can tank the heat. But the existing aluminum alloy don't seem to be an issue with the F9. Maybe they just want more experience with stainless steel since they are one the few companies that are also keen on developing a Starship clone, and the ZQ-3 is just stopgap design before they rush into developing their Starship clone.
Lijian: Payload is not very impressive given it's tripe core design. Only notable thing is that they are planning to land the entire triple core 1st stage together as one unit. I feel like it's gonna take them a lot of tries before they can succeed. Not very impressed with this rocket.
Pallas 1: At only 8 tons to LEO, it's the 2nd least powerful rocket on this list. Another pretty similar F9 clone, with 7 engines instead of 9. Will need to pivot into their triple core FH design fast if they want to snag mega-constellation launches; with their low payload.
Hyperbola-3: Other than using methalox, not much to say, another very similar F9 clone. Middle of the road payload. Not very impressive.
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