Search Results
7/26/2025, 5:25:09 PM
What will happen to our army in the coming years?
Let's calculate and evaluate
1. What numbers were announced?
According to Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament from the defense committee, Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 every month.
The "official" number of SZCH, i.e. those registered by law enforcement, is about 16-19 thousand. Of these, again, according to the Prosecutor General's Office, a very small percentage is returned through "amnesty" mechanisms.
The official rate of losses, that is, the rate announced by the President, is unclear, because Zelensky mentioned only the dead, and did not name the prisoners and missing (now the main article of irretrievable losses on the battlefield). The estimated rate of losses according to Western press sources (The Economist, WSJ, Spiegel) is 5-8 thousand per month. To this can be added the same number of seriously wounded, who will be out of action for a long time or forever.
Thus, if we look at such figures, the quantitative composition of the Ukrainian army should either increase slightly or decrease slightly on a monthly basis.
2. What is reality?
Mobilizing 30,000 people probably doesn't happen every month, and it's quite possible that even 20,000 is a fairly successful indicator.
The amount of losses on the battlefield, indicated in foreign sources, can be left as is for now.
But the figure of 19 thousand deserters and those who voluntarily left the unit is clearly underestimated. Practices continue that prevent a more complete assessment of this phenomenon. First, due to a large amount of unnecessary paperwork, military units cannot formalize all cases of desertion that occurred in them, and therefore cannot properly form a report for law enforcement officers. Second, even if a report about desertion is properly formalized and sent to the State Bureau of Investigation, it is still very often not registered there, as required by the Criminal Procedure Code.
Let's calculate and evaluate
1. What numbers were announced?
According to Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament from the defense committee, Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 every month.
The "official" number of SZCH, i.e. those registered by law enforcement, is about 16-19 thousand. Of these, again, according to the Prosecutor General's Office, a very small percentage is returned through "amnesty" mechanisms.
The official rate of losses, that is, the rate announced by the President, is unclear, because Zelensky mentioned only the dead, and did not name the prisoners and missing (now the main article of irretrievable losses on the battlefield). The estimated rate of losses according to Western press sources (The Economist, WSJ, Spiegel) is 5-8 thousand per month. To this can be added the same number of seriously wounded, who will be out of action for a long time or forever.
Thus, if we look at such figures, the quantitative composition of the Ukrainian army should either increase slightly or decrease slightly on a monthly basis.
2. What is reality?
Mobilizing 30,000 people probably doesn't happen every month, and it's quite possible that even 20,000 is a fairly successful indicator.
The amount of losses on the battlefield, indicated in foreign sources, can be left as is for now.
But the figure of 19 thousand deserters and those who voluntarily left the unit is clearly underestimated. Practices continue that prevent a more complete assessment of this phenomenon. First, due to a large amount of unnecessary paperwork, military units cannot formalize all cases of desertion that occurred in them, and therefore cannot properly form a report for law enforcement officers. Second, even if a report about desertion is properly formalized and sent to the State Bureau of Investigation, it is still very often not registered there, as required by the Criminal Procedure Code.
Page 1