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6/19/2025, 11:37:10 PM
>>508022319
I's not a 50/50 coin flip. It’s a Bayesian problem; updating probabilities based on evidence.
Drawing a gold ball is more likely if you were in the GG box (2 chances out of 2)
Drawing a gold ball is less likely if you were in the GS box (1 chance out of 2)
So, seeing a gold makes it twice as likely you're in the GG box.
--> 2/3
I's not a 50/50 coin flip. It’s a Bayesian problem; updating probabilities based on evidence.
Drawing a gold ball is more likely if you were in the GG box (2 chances out of 2)
Drawing a gold ball is less likely if you were in the GS box (1 chance out of 2)
So, seeing a gold makes it twice as likely you're in the GG box.
--> 2/3
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