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6/29/2025, 9:21:26 PM
>>17801197
>larger transition from agricultural to industrial civilizations that's urbanized and globalized
The problem is that we've had several periods where this happens historically, and these "urban, globalized civlizations" be they the Phoenicians, Carthage, late-stage Rome, Venice/Genoa, the Hanseatic league, China's Han-based dynasties, the Chola/Tamil dynasties of Southern India, or European colonial powers like France and Britain have always been unceremoniously swallowed up by more rural and less advanced civilizations that have higher birthrates and more culturally/politically unified bases of power and social cohesion. Urban societies always get too socially atomized, decadent, and concentrated to effectively resist barbarians long-term.
>greater purchasing power (on a long-term timeline, like compared to people 100-200 years ago) and more individual differentation in choices
The problem is we've already peaked here and peaked a long time ago (most estimates say around the late 50s/early 60s). Now purchasing power in Western countries is receding rapidly on every front while wages haven't kept up with skyrocketing prices in decades to the point of crisis.
>the very concept that one can make their own choices
Yeah those other states/polities I mentioned had more liberty than any other that came before them in their region too and look where that got them long-term.
>we're heading at full-speed into the cyberpunk future
This made sense as a POV in the 80s or 90s when it seemed like the "End of History" really seemed upon us, we "solved" everything existential, and birthrates were stable; but now everything is in slow-motion collapse due to the fact that the postwar American order was based on infinite demographic and therefore economic growth. Now that birthrates are spiralling into the toilet, the welfare state system is collapsing in on itself and flying into default. All while technological advancement has slowed to a crawl outside of communications.
>larger transition from agricultural to industrial civilizations that's urbanized and globalized
The problem is that we've had several periods where this happens historically, and these "urban, globalized civlizations" be they the Phoenicians, Carthage, late-stage Rome, Venice/Genoa, the Hanseatic league, China's Han-based dynasties, the Chola/Tamil dynasties of Southern India, or European colonial powers like France and Britain have always been unceremoniously swallowed up by more rural and less advanced civilizations that have higher birthrates and more culturally/politically unified bases of power and social cohesion. Urban societies always get too socially atomized, decadent, and concentrated to effectively resist barbarians long-term.
>greater purchasing power (on a long-term timeline, like compared to people 100-200 years ago) and more individual differentation in choices
The problem is we've already peaked here and peaked a long time ago (most estimates say around the late 50s/early 60s). Now purchasing power in Western countries is receding rapidly on every front while wages haven't kept up with skyrocketing prices in decades to the point of crisis.
>the very concept that one can make their own choices
Yeah those other states/polities I mentioned had more liberty than any other that came before them in their region too and look where that got them long-term.
>we're heading at full-speed into the cyberpunk future
This made sense as a POV in the 80s or 90s when it seemed like the "End of History" really seemed upon us, we "solved" everything existential, and birthrates were stable; but now everything is in slow-motion collapse due to the fact that the postwar American order was based on infinite demographic and therefore economic growth. Now that birthrates are spiralling into the toilet, the welfare state system is collapsing in on itself and flying into default. All while technological advancement has slowed to a crawl outside of communications.
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