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7/25/2025, 9:13:03 AM
I think 2009 is an extremely interesting case study for raw stats and raw EPA vs this improved defense adjusted EPA.
If you just look at numbers, Brady went from 50 TDs 8 INTs in 2007 with a 117 rating, to 28 TDs (7th), 13 INTs with a 96 rating (9th) in 2009. Boxscorecels would look at this and think Tom regressed or that he had merely an "okay" season.
Naked EPA, in contrast, thinks Brady had a great season, giving him the 4th highest behind Rivers, Peyton, and Brees.
However my adj EPA also takes into account the pass defenses he faced. Brady faced one of the strongest pass defense gauntlets in NFL history.
If we look at the defenses faced by EPA, Brady played the top 8 EPA pass defenses 8 times, including the 4 best 6 times, and the 2 best 4 times (Jets, Bills). Comparatively Peyton and Brees played the 8 best defenses a combined 8 times.
When this is taken into account, Brady's adj-EPA/play jumps to 1st in the league.
If you just look at numbers, Brady went from 50 TDs 8 INTs in 2007 with a 117 rating, to 28 TDs (7th), 13 INTs with a 96 rating (9th) in 2009. Boxscorecels would look at this and think Tom regressed or that he had merely an "okay" season.
Naked EPA, in contrast, thinks Brady had a great season, giving him the 4th highest behind Rivers, Peyton, and Brees.
However my adj EPA also takes into account the pass defenses he faced. Brady faced one of the strongest pass defense gauntlets in NFL history.
If we look at the defenses faced by EPA, Brady played the top 8 EPA pass defenses 8 times, including the 4 best 6 times, and the 2 best 4 times (Jets, Bills). Comparatively Peyton and Brees played the 8 best defenses a combined 8 times.
When this is taken into account, Brady's adj-EPA/play jumps to 1st in the league.
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