>>527988264
I'm in the same boat. I've hit M2 in the past and had it happen plenty of times where the stats site estimated me at S3 based on my last month's worth of games. But then I lose it all anyway. I don't see it as luck, though. Just averages evening things out. My playstyle has changed constantly in subtle ways, but the only thing that works for me is tile efficiency + push/fold. Trying to incorporate more advanced stuff just destroys my rank.