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7/17/2025, 7:57:48 PM
>>510640773
PZ has great analysis, but terrible predictions.
I equate it to like chess when you are playing a kid who tries to calculate a few moves ahead, but only considers what he thinks is his opponents best move. Opponent may have several move options and he if picks one you weren't thinking about then all the rest of the forward calculation is blown.
PZ is constantly saying X is happening to country Z, therefore A->B->C will happen, with C being the big prediction of something terrible. But country Z knows X is happening, so country Z does what it has to, to make sure A doesn't happen and if A does happen it doesn't lead to B and then C.
PZ has great Analysis of China and their demographics, he just misses the very obvious part that China does not want to collapse and will therefore do whatever is necessary to not..
PZ has great analysis, but terrible predictions.
I equate it to like chess when you are playing a kid who tries to calculate a few moves ahead, but only considers what he thinks is his opponents best move. Opponent may have several move options and he if picks one you weren't thinking about then all the rest of the forward calculation is blown.
PZ is constantly saying X is happening to country Z, therefore A->B->C will happen, with C being the big prediction of something terrible. But country Z knows X is happening, so country Z does what it has to, to make sure A doesn't happen and if A does happen it doesn't lead to B and then C.
PZ has great Analysis of China and their demographics, he just misses the very obvious part that China does not want to collapse and will therefore do whatever is necessary to not..
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