>>60530239
the key to profitably sports betting is to look for events where the probability being priced in is either over/underrepresented
stop thinking about the odds as -150 -- convert all odds to %'s; having the odds as -150, +200 etc is the way the bookies get you to turn your brain off
>pic related
so for -150, 150 / 250 = 60% implied probability
then assess the event and see whether or not you think there actually is 60% probability
for statistics, the general minimum sample size you want to look at is 30 events
so for example, NBA basketball, I see that such-and-such player has scoring 15+ points at -150; to take this bet, you want this player to be scoring 15+ points more than 60% of the time over the last 30 games
look up their stat history and count the number of games that they scored 15 or higher over the last 30 games, divide this number by 30; if they did it 18 times, the pricing is fair at -150; if they did it less than 18 times advantage is to the bookie, if they did it more than 18 times advantage is to you
Only place bets when the advantage is to you - bookies are pretty accurate for the most part, where they don't offer -150 (60%) if the player has done it 20 out of 30 times (66.6%) -- in general, the advantage you will find will be 2% or less
this is the core of the analysis, comparing real event occurrence rate to the probability the bookie is offering
you can do this for practically any odds being offered
>O/U for player is 20 -110 (52.3%); out of the last 30 games, how many times did the player score above 20?
>If this number is >16 = take the over (16 / 30 = 53.3%) If this number is <16 = take the under
then, after doing this core analysis, factor in everything else that may affect the event occurrence - there are a million things you can factor in
eg.
>is the game being played at home, or away?
(then look at the last 30 games home / away and come up with the occurrence rate % for this variable)