>>16728186
too many variables
too many unknown unknowns
too much extrapolating from a single example

I made a formula that spews out number of civilisations, assuming their life conditions will be somewhat similar to Earth (water and carbohydrate based, can't survive hard radiation, etc.)
But we just don't know the varibles. Even number of stars in our galaxy is ballpark estimate 100–400 billion.
The numbers are anywhere between couple million civilisations per galaxy to couple million galaxies per civilisation.

the values I deemed "most probable" gave me a ballpark of around 10 civilizations in our galaxy, so until proven otherwise, I believe that number is good as any other educated guess

>>16728197
"extremephiles can survive there for a couple of years in hibernation" and "conditions are so good life could spark into existence abiotically" is not even comparing apples to oranges