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6/21/2025, 12:26:28 PM
>>63870454
>Does Israel say fuck it and keep going no matter the price?
I think so. There was some talk in the Israeli papers that this would be a two-week thing but I think that's B.S. and they are steeling themselves for a long war with Iran. They bombed Syrian military equipment for months after Assad fell, and there were quite a lot of Israeli air strikes there before Assad fell targeting AD and Hezbollah and missile inventories, and a nuclear site some years ago. What's to stop them from continuing to bomb Iran six months or a year from now? Iran can't stop them. Trump isn't stopping them.
It's common in Western countries to think in terms of a rational system, like a railroad that's built according to a logical timetable. The Middle East isn't like that, it's more like a perpetually unstable ecosystem so small changes in one area can lead to unpredictable changes throughout the entire system. So when they beat up Hezbollah and killed Nasrallah, that had bigger effects on the whole system, which was Assad falling, which cleared the path for Israel to strike at Iran.
>>63870528
>What would the Israelis even do? Hope for foreign intervention and boots on the ground?
The Israelis want us to bomb Iran. I'm sure they'd like for us to invade it but that's not going to happen. Basically I think the Israelis are crazy but their enemies continually underestimate them. I don't think they have any "nation building" plans either, it's not how they think. It's way more of a strong horse kind of mentality over there, and what matters is power and strength. Also just being able to smash up the Iranian military and nuclear program to delay them is seen as worth it. They launched multiple wars with their Arab neighbors because they didn't like them building up their militaries. This was the approximate cause for the Suez war in the 1950s. And even between wars with Egypt, they fought "wars of attrition" of artillery duels, air strikes, and commando raids.
>Does Israel say fuck it and keep going no matter the price?
I think so. There was some talk in the Israeli papers that this would be a two-week thing but I think that's B.S. and they are steeling themselves for a long war with Iran. They bombed Syrian military equipment for months after Assad fell, and there were quite a lot of Israeli air strikes there before Assad fell targeting AD and Hezbollah and missile inventories, and a nuclear site some years ago. What's to stop them from continuing to bomb Iran six months or a year from now? Iran can't stop them. Trump isn't stopping them.
It's common in Western countries to think in terms of a rational system, like a railroad that's built according to a logical timetable. The Middle East isn't like that, it's more like a perpetually unstable ecosystem so small changes in one area can lead to unpredictable changes throughout the entire system. So when they beat up Hezbollah and killed Nasrallah, that had bigger effects on the whole system, which was Assad falling, which cleared the path for Israel to strike at Iran.
>>63870528
>What would the Israelis even do? Hope for foreign intervention and boots on the ground?
The Israelis want us to bomb Iran. I'm sure they'd like for us to invade it but that's not going to happen. Basically I think the Israelis are crazy but their enemies continually underestimate them. I don't think they have any "nation building" plans either, it's not how they think. It's way more of a strong horse kind of mentality over there, and what matters is power and strength. Also just being able to smash up the Iranian military and nuclear program to delay them is seen as worth it. They launched multiple wars with their Arab neighbors because they didn't like them building up their militaries. This was the approximate cause for the Suez war in the 1950s. And even between wars with Egypt, they fought "wars of attrition" of artillery duels, air strikes, and commando raids.
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