1. Ukraine: a state that should’ve been fixed in perpetual limbo between the Russian and Western spheres of influence (juggling between hosting a Russian military base and negotiating with the EU) is now dead set on joining Western institutions (the EU and NATO). Even if Ukraine never joins NATO or the EU, it will become ingrained into the Western security and intelligence apparatus (even more than it already is). Any bit of Ukraine that is not occupied by Russia directly at the end of this conflict is territory that is de facto NATO land.
2. 4 Oblasts: There’s this notion on /pol/ that Russia has somehow gotten all the land it wants and therefore has already won the war. This is an unusual and bizarre concept as Russia has yet to 100% capture any of the 4 oblasts after three years (and in the case of Kherson Oblast, Russia has lost ground since the start of the war). Cities and towns like Bakhmut or Avdiivka took months of grinding combat for the Russians to force the Ukrainians out of the urban area. In Bakhmut’s case, Russia is still on Bakhmut’s outskirts TWO YEARS LATER. For Russia to complete the conquest of the 4 oblasts would be more years of battles on much larger scales than Bakhmut or Avdiivka.
3. Transnistria: To further bury the notion that Russia has already won the war, one must look towards the West. Russia’s failure at the start of the SMO to conquer Odessa and Mykolaiv has left Transnistria a sitting duck. I can’t imagine anyone thinking that Russia has won this war when they’ve left Transnistria to dry. In any future conflagration between Russia and the West, Transnistria will simply get the Assad treatment and be left to fend for themselves.