A RARE 25% SUB QUARTER S&P ADVANCE

The S&P finished the 4th of July week at 6279.35 and is now up 6.76% for 2025 and 13.4% over the last 12 rolling months (July4-July4), currently residing at an All Time High for at least the three day weekend.

You may recall that the S&P experienced an 18.9% selloff from the Feb 19th Close of 6144.15 to the April 8th Close of 4982.77, exceeding 20% if measured vs the April 8th intraday Low of 4910.42.

From that 4982.77 Closing Low on April 8th, the S&P has now advanced 26.0%, doing so in less than a Quarter, 86 calendar day (April8-July3) to be precise.

Looking back through post 1950 history, I can only find five prior occasions in which the S&P has advanced 25% in less than a Quarter and none of those five occasions were anywhere near an impending top.

Certainly, one would prefer to have more than five data points from which to draw conclusions upon which to base one's market exposure but the magnitude and uniformity of the advances across the following 12 months in those five cases appears worthy of our respect.

All five cases were positive over the following 1 to 12 months, up at least 19.2% one year later, 31.7% on average.

None of the five cases experienced a 4% drawdown as measured from the signal Date.