>>713475368
Only for Ichikawa

People like to say that Barbarossa is the turning point of the war but I have a drastically different opinion.
It's the Italians joining the war, or more precisely, joining the war at the time they do. Mussolini invaded France with the expectation that an imminent peace with France would also mean that the British would also have to agree to peace terms relatively quickly. Germany and Britain had, after the fall of france, only the air and the Atlantic as their major battlegrounds, but the Germans could never land in England, and England could never land enough troops on the continent to threaten Germany (as long as Germany isn't fighting a major land campaign, like say, against the Russians). Italy deciding to become a combatant changed that. Suddenly the entire med became a battleground and land campaigns were possible in Egypt and Ethiopia. This effectively provides a real motivation for the Brits to keep fighting even after the collapse of all their continental allies, because now Britain's own holding were under serious threat.
Here is why I believe the Italians not getting directly involved could shift the balance of power in favor of the Germans, who not only would benefit from being able to import raw resources via non-belligerent Italy, but also present a de facto situation where neither side can threaten the other in their own territory, which makes any further fighting between the Germans and Brits pointless, as long as the Germans don't go after the Russians. Britain will eventually have to begrudgingly accept major German gains in Western Europe, which lets the Germans prepare for a war in the east without being hampered by a royal navy blockade and the threat of bombing. I doubt Britain would reenter war with Germany after they peace out, the need to recover from the war would be a greater priority than containing Hitler.
What does Italy get out of it? The italian armed forces in 1940 were still hurting from the ethiopian war