>>510912397
>Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan continue to escalate. This represents a new diplomatic and geopolitical confrontation line with the Kremlin in the post-Soviet space.
>>510912447

At present, Russia is unable to manage regional affairs through its so-called "peacekeepers," as many of them are now deployed in Ukraine. As a result, Putin is likely to rely more on propaganda and will probably escalate the persecution of Azerbaijanis within Russia.

Russian propagandists have already started making demands:

▪ Halt the export of agricultural products from Azerbaijan;
▪ Prepare for an imminent military conflict;
▪ Strike the center of Baku with Oreshnik.

However, all of this is currently just informational noise. Russia lacks meaningful economic and military leverage to influence Azerbaijan's position.

Putin fully understands that escalating the conflict with Azerbaijan could also lead to a serious confrontation with Ankara and with Ilham Aliyev’s ally, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The situation will continue to evolve, and the course of the war in Ukraine will play a significant role in how it unfolds.
>part 3