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7/3/2025, 11:24:21 PM
>>17811294
This. Hezbollah and the Iranians were clever. It's a kind of Leninist dual-power or IRA thing where you have this party and paramilitary force that isn't the state but effectively is in areas under their control. The state itself is weak and can't stop them. Hezbollah territory in parts of Beirut and southern Lebanon is like walking into Iran and there are portraits of Nasrallah and the Ayatollah everywhere, and anybody who isn't from there is under observation all the time.
But that's also a weakness, because they didn't want to commit all the way to helping out Hamas because the rest of Lebanese society wasn't on board with that. They couldn't stop Hezbollah from firing rockets at Israel in this limited way, but Hezbollah didn't want to turn all of Lebanese society against them by inviting a massive Israeli onslaught on the country. But that also gave Israel enough time to cycle through Gaza and then turn its attention to them, and then they came to Lebanon and had no mercy. (The Israelis are ruthless.)
The state being weak also contributes to Israel being able to do strike as it did. Lebanon doesn't have air defenses. I think you sorta need a strong state but this model depends on building a para-state within a weak / fragile state (and keeping it like that).
>>17812162
I'm from the U.S. and never heard of Kneecap but this sounds like the "controversy" over Kanye. Okay that guy was going nigga heil Hitler but it's still shallow and most people don't give a fuck. Nobody is actually stopping him from saying it. But he's not really saying anything deep either. It's not serious. It's like a kid tearing something down and being like "look I tore it down!" That's what people do in our countries.
This. Hezbollah and the Iranians were clever. It's a kind of Leninist dual-power or IRA thing where you have this party and paramilitary force that isn't the state but effectively is in areas under their control. The state itself is weak and can't stop them. Hezbollah territory in parts of Beirut and southern Lebanon is like walking into Iran and there are portraits of Nasrallah and the Ayatollah everywhere, and anybody who isn't from there is under observation all the time.
But that's also a weakness, because they didn't want to commit all the way to helping out Hamas because the rest of Lebanese society wasn't on board with that. They couldn't stop Hezbollah from firing rockets at Israel in this limited way, but Hezbollah didn't want to turn all of Lebanese society against them by inviting a massive Israeli onslaught on the country. But that also gave Israel enough time to cycle through Gaza and then turn its attention to them, and then they came to Lebanon and had no mercy. (The Israelis are ruthless.)
The state being weak also contributes to Israel being able to do strike as it did. Lebanon doesn't have air defenses. I think you sorta need a strong state but this model depends on building a para-state within a weak / fragile state (and keeping it like that).
>>17812162
I'm from the U.S. and never heard of Kneecap but this sounds like the "controversy" over Kanye. Okay that guy was going nigga heil Hitler but it's still shallow and most people don't give a fuck. Nobody is actually stopping him from saying it. But he's not really saying anything deep either. It's not serious. It's like a kid tearing something down and being like "look I tore it down!" That's what people do in our countries.
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