>>64079879
>the second Putin croaks it's over

This.

Putin is on par with Stalin in terms of control of the Russian state, maybe even more as there is no ideology like communism to lean back on, just Russian nationalism and authoritarianism.

When authoritarian regimes don't have a clear successor (which they often don't since then the successor can then start collaborating in taking down the current ruler), there is at best a massive power struggle at the top or at worst a civil war between various military/political/state security leaders when the leaders dies, trying to fill out the power vacuum left behind. The chances of a civil war increases more if the country is engaged already in a war, since generals will most likely take their troops and march on the capital in order to become the new Tsar.

This happened during the Roman empire more often than you would imagine.

>>64069981
>>64070085
I am legit thinking this is Ukraine's strategy. Waiting out until Putin dies and utilizing the chaos to re-capture territories and forcing a peace. I don't see the frontlines moving in any meaningful way until then. Putin turns 73 years old this year, already above the life expectancy of Russian males and the Ukraine war is draining his energy. Ideally he would start having health/mental issues that would either make the political/military situation for Russia worse.