>>64103373
>>64103443
NTA, the big picture can largely be summed up as "if this war ends on terms even remotely favorable to Russia, they will take it as encouragement to be even more retarded in the future". And as much as that would go incredibly poorly for them, an invasion of Poland or the Baltics is still more of a shitshow to clean up than no invasion. Run that through several layers of bureaucracy, politics and sensationalist reporting, and you end up with "ZOMG RUSSIA GONNA ATTACK!"

And Russia, to the extent it can, does lean into this, moving whatever little they can spare west and trying to sell it as a buildup, with the intended message being "this shit ain't nothing to me, I can still take all you on, be grateful the Bear has indulged your bullshit this long, you should stop sending weapons front stuck front stuck please I beg you."