I've started to abandon runs when I don't get long S at this point. Taurus wasn't even close to this cursed for me and I'd see a blown run every once in a while (like 1 in 10 where I wouldn't get S medium)
I've done like 15 runs in 2 days now after getting SS sparks and even though EVERY parent has a 2-3* long spark I think I've seen long S 3 times.
The next CM can't come soon enough