>So many people sensationalising this absolute nothing burger today.
>Let me break down how insignificant this is: the guy who died today was 80 years old after a long chronic illness. The six previous deaths are spread out since early July, an entire two months. Not only that, but it's for a region that typically runs 20k candidates. AfD polls at about 20-25% nationally right now, so probably at minimum they would run 2k candidates here.
>But wait, two of the supposedly mysterious deaths were of "backup candidates", meaning the overall pool is probably a multiple of 2k. Let's just say with backup candidates, it's only double the low estimate of 2k. What are the odds that of a pool of 4,000 Germans, with an average age of mid 50s (it's probably even older), 6 of them will die in an 8 week window?
>The annual death rate for this age group in Germany is apparently about 0.5%. That means the expected deaths of a pool of 4,000 over an 8 week period would actually be 3 people, or:
4,000 × 0.5% × (8 ÷ 52) = 3.07
>And the chances of it being 6 or more is about 9%, or 1 in 11. And that is using a very low estimate of candidates and "backup candidates" to calculate. That's what hysterical influencers are saying is statistically impossible and using to conclude there is a plot to assassinate 80 year old local German politicians.
>And that's just putting aside the minor detail that most of these people had long term health conditions and no one associated is alleging any foul play.
