>>16790153
using math to model or simulate reality is fine as long as you understand the limitations or specifics where it makes sense.

>you have a bag of coins, you pulled X coin, what is the probability of pulling Y coin?
this is the case where first pull altered the odds. you have to use conditional probability
>you have three doors, behind one is reward, the tv anchor showed you that the door you did not pick doesnt have it, do you take the other doors?
again, the pull altered the odds, conditional probability
>woman had 2 babies, what are the odds of both of them being girls if first is a girl?
there isnt any (yet) proven pattern in universe picking boy/girl/herm yet, so you have two options: shut off your brain and apply same formula, essentially claiming there is finite series of girls and boys and since the mother already pulled one girl out of the bag, the odds of having 2nd one is higher or lower, depending on how you phrase the question

or

you refuse to play this game and say that the two events are not conditional and its not conditional probability. but that will lower your math score in test. after all they train us in schools to follow protocols and authorities, not to actually think.