How does this look?

No fatties that get stuck in hand dead, only playable cards
16 'hits' for manifest dread, so 47% chance to hit, another 56% if you include molt tender, though its a 44% chance to only hit lands/spells
t1 molt tender t2 quantum riddler + splash portal would be the most reliable line
could run llanowar elves but not sure what I'd cut
with 7 direct removal + 3 marangs to bounce it could stymie some boards