>>41018117
>50/50 ice water/silicate
It's (CO2 8:1 H2O) : (Silicate 7:1 Elemental Nickel).
But that's far worse for Mars than 50/50 ice water/silicate.

>Accelerating Ni release (from log[Q(Ni)] ~21.5 at 4 AU to ~22.75 at 3 AU) indicates intensifying outgassing or sputtering of refractory grains, which correlates with structural weakening in fragile comets. In CO2-dominated comets, this could trigger early jets, building internal pressure or causing spin-up, leading to fragmentation before 0.8 AU (e.g., similar to observed flare-ups in split comets like 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3).

>Ni dispersion acts as a proxy for volatile mobilization (e.g., CO2 sublimation exposing Ni-bearing silicates), potentially causing runaway activity if the comet's tensile strength is low (~10–100 kPa, typical for porous comets). Historical analogs (e.g., Comet ISON's disintegration) show similar metal vapor increases preceding breakup.

>If acceleration continues exponentially, as it exceeds typical r^{-2} to r^{-4} scaling for cometary activity, signaling a threshold-driven outbursts highly likely, at approximately 70% depending on the true concentration of silicates to nickel