Thread 41018117

>Today: SPHEREx analysis of 3I/ATLAS likely places diameter at 28.6mi instead of 7mi
>t. Avi Loeb

A 28.6mi 50/50 ice water/silicate object sublimated from 2.5au to 0.8au produces 300,000 0.25mi fragments. ~0.1% to 1% of objects are likely to strike, so 300 to 3,000 fragments.

At a velocity of 66km/s when passing within a MOID < 0.015au, each object has a force of ~26,627 megatons TNT. 8m to 80m megaton TNT impact likely. Affected zone leaves 300 to 3,000 14 to 20 km wide craters spread across 7% to 70% of Mars. Planet-wide bombardment possible with a scarred area of 150,000 km2 to 3,000,000 km2. Secondary craters likely affecting 100% of Mars Surface, ejecta rays visible by amateur astronomers, regolith churning.

Potential permanent thickening of atmosphere by 10%. Sunlight reduction could reduce temperatures by 5 to 50 degrees celcius. Paradoxically, the impact heat could trigger a greenhouse effect, leading to transient lakes and hydrothermal systems.

>This event has never been detected in the history of the Solar system. The closest "analogy" known is Shoemaker-Levy 9, but scaled up x270 more energetic with a x143 affected zone.

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=cV1NGS4uOiw

>>41018117 (OP)
>sublimated from 2.5au to 0.8au
Is earth projected to intersect the fragment zone while fragments are still present?

>>41018573
The closest we ever come to the core is ~1.75au on the other side of the Sun. Mars rover is done for though.

>>41018573
We might get some cool backboard action on Jupiter for the 3 pointer with some fragments though.

>>41018117 (OP)
Even that is kinda coincidental isn't it? Comet happens to terraform mars for us right before we're about to start going there? Sus. Good kind though I suppose.

>>41019229
Yeah but if it is ejecting any kind of debris we may pass through a cloud of it when we come back around or even years later or however long it takes to reach our path around the sun. We just have tp hope it doesn't shed anything like that as it passes through that could survive the trip to reach earth's path.

>>41020316
Yes there will be ejecta, but it's incalculable if any emissions are significant enough to pass through Earth's Atmosphere.

It might make Mars Journeys a bit of a bitch though, as if there isn't enough protection for the tiles for high velocity pebbles, that flight is DOA.

>>41019939
>>41020316
>>41021933
Only joking. I’ve just posted someone else’s content with no attempt at verification or any understanding of what any of it means. I’m going to rope myself now. Bye!

>>41021980
>My own clone!
>Now neither of us will be virgins!

>>41018117 (OP)
I am still thinking blue beans underpinnings and backstory being formed here.
Let's say this is a natural object and due to sublimation of "glue" holding it together, we get these "small" fragments. We get some beautiful but never seen before footage of shit going on on Jupiter, Mars etc.
A few months later we get bluebeaned.

>>41018117 (OP)
>50/50 ice water/silicate
It's (CO2 8:1 H2O) : (Silicate 7:1 Elemental Nickel).
But that's far worse for Mars than 50/50 ice water/silicate.

>Accelerating Ni release (from log[Q(Ni)] ~21.5 at 4 AU to ~22.75 at 3 AU) indicates intensifying outgassing or sputtering of refractory grains, which correlates with structural weakening in fragile comets. In CO2-dominated comets, this could trigger early jets, building internal pressure or causing spin-up, leading to fragmentation before 0.8 AU (e.g., similar to observed flare-ups in split comets like 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3).

>Ni dispersion acts as a proxy for volatile mobilization (e.g., CO2 sublimation exposing Ni-bearing silicates), potentially causing runaway activity if the comet's tensile strength is low (~10–100 kPa, typical for porous comets). Historical analogs (e.g., Comet ISON's disintegration) show similar metal vapor increases preceding breakup.

>If acceleration continues exponentially, as it exceeds typical r^{-2} to r^{-4} scaling for cometary activity, signaling a threshold-driven outbursts highly likely, at approximately 70% depending on the true concentration of silicates to nickel

Quick somebody call up Harry Stamper.

>>41022519
can't believe it's already September

>>41025601
it's been september for a really long time, it just keeps getting septemberer every year