>>64073022
Luka has only around 10,000 trained soldiers that are loyal to him. They do security and maintain order for Luka. The rest of the army is made up of conscripts that would turn on him the second they sensed weakness. Luka's government is unstable, 100% reliant on Russian support and has been almost toppled multiple times now.
Belarus is in all senses incapable of participating in any conflict other than letting Russian soldiers walk through it. If those 10,000 soldiers are lost, the government will collapse. If the conscripts go and fight, they will desert. If the 10,000 soldiers make the conscripts fight, there will be no one in Minsk to prevent the citizens from toppling Luka before Putin can arrive