>>64134796
There's not much she can do. Banks are awash with cash but don't want to lend it. There's a massive massive gulf in interbank lending rates and corporate/individual lending rates. It's quite astonishing really. A liquidity crisis for thee but not for me. There's an immense ongoing credit crunch which is only slightly alleviated by payday lenders (now being stamped out by the government) as well as loan sharks - but the overall trend is a steep drop in consumption hence below inflation VAT receipts to the Muscovite regime despite aggressive tax rises.
There are macroprudential limits and other financial constraints which could be relaxed to try and spur lending activity. However many of these have already been relaxed, in addition with some tightening elsewhere to not let it all go to hui, and there's no luck here. Banks aren't stupid. Lending activity has been too high to finance this war which is making no fucking money back. They all know that it's time to consolidate and withdraw funding for this rubbish. They can't stop financing the war - so to compensate they must restrict lending to everyone else. And so the civilian sector gets shit on.
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>>509810525
Yes it's pretty bad. But you can't gauge how bad things are just from that information alone since Russia has abandoned general budgeting principles and conducts a lot of its financing (to the tune of tens of trillions rubles each year) off the books via state-mandate bank preferential loans to desirable sectors like defence and construction and other industries.
See:
https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt-full-report
To get a broader economic picture you should look at a few things:
- budget deficit and treasury yields
- key rate and current account
- banking liquidity and balance sheets
There's more but you can start with those. Some of these stats Russia can manipulate and lie about. Others they can't. Or they can't get away with a lot of lying and obfuscation at least.
The summary of this all is that Russia has to make very deep spending cuts to turn all of this round. There's only one obvious place to make those budget cuts and that's the military, but they're so stubborn that they won't. So they walk, with their eyes wide open, ever closer into the abyss.
Yes it's pretty bad. But you can't gauge how bad things are just from that information alone since Russia has abandoned general budgeting principles and conducts a lot of its financing (to the tune of tens of trillions rubles each year) off the books via state-mandate bank preferential loans to desirable sectors like defence and construction and other industries.
See:
https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt-full-report
To get a broader economic picture you should look at a few things:
- budget deficit and treasury yields
- key rate and current account
- banking liquidity and balance sheets
There's more but you can start with those. Some of these stats Russia can manipulate and lie about. Others they can't. Or they can't get away with a lot of lying and obfuscation at least.
The summary of this all is that Russia has to make very deep spending cuts to turn all of this round. There's only one obvious place to make those budget cuts and that's the military, but they're so stubborn that they won't. So they walk, with their eyes wide open, ever closer into the abyss.