>>64173481
I think Russia is intent on going for the baltic states, honestly. This is not a rational or advisable decision, but it is consistent with Putin's brand of retardation. Putin might think of this as a way out. The current war has left Russia bleeding in cash and in terms of stability however to fully mobilize and seize the assets he needs to buy him another couple of months is impossible as things are. A bigger war could easily make this change.
One should also consider that Putin is ideologically driven. He seems to be intent on restoring the statecraft of the 1800s, a stronk Puccia as a world power and seems to believe that the Baltics are merely disposable satellite states that the decedent west won't bleed for.
Especially if this is timed with a Chinese move on Taiwan and additional material support from China, I see this as a possibility. Mostly because Russia and China both know Russia is in rapid decline and soon China will be isolated in terms of allies that it doesn't run a de facto trade deficit with (when one factors in their subsidized exports and belt and road to non western markets, they only profit from the west and Russia for the most part).
If they don't act, both of their nationalist larp dreams are dead on arrival. And this faith in their own larp transcends any realpolitik or strategic thinking. If they act and win, suddenly they both are in a far stronger position. It's a gamble but Putin is nothing if not a retarded gambler