>>514752462
Yesterday, I posted>>514690033 under the assumption of 50/50 ice water/silicates composition of 3I/ATLAS. However, the facts of the matter tell me that it is not.
It's (CO2 8:1 H2O) : (Silicate 7:1 Elemental Nickel) with a 28.6mi diameter remaining accurate.
That's FAR worse for Mars than 50/50 water ice/silicates.
>Accelerating Ni release (from log[Q(Ni)] ~21.5 at 4 AU to ~22.75 at 3 AU) indicates intensifying outgassing or sputtering of refractory grains, which correlates with structural weakening in fragile comets. In CO2-dominated comets, this could trigger early jets, building internal pressure or causing spin-up, leading to fragmentation far before 0.8 AU (e.g., similar to observed flare-ups in split comets like 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3).
>Ni dispersion acts as a proxy for volatile mobilization (e.g., CO2 sublimation exposing Ni-bearing silicates), potentially causing runaway activity if the comet's tensile strength is low (~10–100 kPa, typical for porous comets). Historical analogs (e.g., Comet ISON's disintegration) show similar metal vapor increases preceding breakup.
>If acceleration continues exponentially, as it exceeds typical r^{-2} to r^{-4} scaling for cometary activity, signaling a threshold-driven outbursts highly likely, at approximately 70% depending on the true concentration of silicates to nickel
Tl;dr:
INSTEAD OF GENTLY MELTING UP INTO 300,000 0.25mi FRAGMENTS NEAR MARS
IT'S FARTING WAY TOO MUCH NICKEL FOR A HEALTHY BOY!!
SHIT'S GONNA ASSPLODE FAR FURTHER OUT!!!
