Rigged edition

Are ya winning sons?

>>FREE MONEY
How is PSG @1.20 against Seattle Sounders? That's free money, the term often misused in these threads. Here it's actually free money, meaning it can't be another result. Atletico created chances at will against them, so PSG, assuming they start their best 11, with Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha and Joao Neves in midfield, should beat them as they did with Brest in CL. Seattle Shitters won't be able to park the bus like an experienced brazilian team. Score prediction: 0-8

Speaking of Botafogo, they shouldn't go down easy, but they're losing to Atletico imo @1.72

Value is PSG at 1.20 cause it should be 1.01 , but speaking of value, my prediction was Inter Miami - Palmeiras 0-6. They can both qualify with a draw, which is the reason why the odds went on Palmeiras from 1.59 to 2.20 ; 'my' model (it's not actually mine per se) characterized Miami's defence in one word: "shambolic" . They're fighting for 1st place, so i think Palmeiras will open the score, and get a second and a third. So realistically 0-3. In my belief Miami won't [be able to] show up for this game against this brazilian powerhouse and there's definetly value on Palmeiras win.

Esperance Tunis v Chelsea @1.31
VALUE. straight up. If you take Chelsea at these odds 1000 times, overall it's a value bet. they win 999 of them

Urawa v Monterrey @1.69
River in shambles, cause they could lose to Inter, and if Monterrey wins, they qualify. Monterrey hasn't been a reliable team, but they have a good attack, they're basically Sevilla. Ramos too, no need to mention. And these japs, apart from their cringe fans, who are only being loud and annoying, are piss poor. So the mexican side to win looks like a phenomenal bet

>>149353921
i have a foolproof plan... that keeps failing

Ride the Atlanta Braves until the All-Star break they've been underperforming but after sweeping the Mets, losing to the Marlins on a travel day, then beating the Marlins 7-0 the next day, that tells you they can win when they want to. And they just weren't trying hard these past months. That's literally all that matters in sports. But why should you try to win in a 162 game season when there's 3 wild card spots? Just split with F5 and ML and stay away from their 5th spot pitcher that they call up to replace Sale. Spencer Strider's next start will also be a value play because he just got his fastball back last game.

PICKS FOR 22 JUN 2025
WYDAD CASABLANCA OR DRAW @3.50
CF PACHUCA +1.5 ASIAN HANDICAP @EVENS
ODDS WITH BETFAIR EXCHANGE
WITH RESPECT,
MARTIN

>>149353921

Nah, the Phillies (the Mets had to win eventually) and the Dodgers absolutely crushed me.

>>149345546
All 3 picks worked perfectly. Kessler won in a fairly convincing 2 even with several rain delays and Bellucci completely destroyed Tseng. Bublik was the clear best player of Halle and also won 2-0 against Medvedev. Glad I made an exception for once because he's playing some of the best tennis of his career right now. Very different from what he has usually shown over the past few years. I assume he was this big of an underdog because he had a 6-0 losing record with Medvedev but it was about time he got his first win here with the level of play he has shown.

Lots of matches being played tomorrow including Wimbledon qualification. Going to post concrete picks later tonight.

>>149360745
good job Hans

>>149353921
no, but not losing either.

If any of you wanna bet on counter-strike, it's the final of the major. It's bo3, and currently "The Mongolz" are leading 1-0 the favourites Vitality, and the retarded american crowd is rooting for the mongols ffs. Imo Vitality are gonna win the next 2 maps. "The Mongolz" are the good guys for no reason at all other the redditor american crowd hate Vitality's captain for trash talking. I think as strong start as these mongolians had, they'll crumble under the fear of winning on the big stage. Basically Vitality will silence the crowd and win the final, continuing their insane streak @1.85

https://www.youtube.com/live/meijWUaxNYg?si=zSGhXYikBny6OQvJ

>>149366339
where can one bet on cs? i see vitaly is leading heavy on dust 2 now.

but how come the view hud dont show who won the first match<?

>>149366773
You see that red square? That's one map won. Btw i tipped it at 1.85, but i took it at 1.53 before they lost 1st map, so even 1.42 now it's still decent, they were 1.25 prematch. I think every bookie has esports

>>149367001
mongolz are choking just like u said!

Think USA can beat Haiti 3-0?

MAARTIIIIIIIIIIIIN

>>149367186
Hope so. I don't expect 3rd map be a walk in the park, but we'll see

>>149367466
Inferno now. after watching so much football betting on it past months this is alot of fun. shame that my broker didnt have csgo when u tipped about it but ohwell im rooting for u Hagi!

>>149367507
>football betting on it past months
You been winning?

>>149367581
im up 360 pounds overall past two months, but there has been some massive swings up and down.
Mostly on norwegian football. Can share some tips in the future here but I rly dislike giving tips and then they dont hit and i made others lose money.

>>149360745
Engel to beat Tien @2.2

Bencic to beat Alexandrova @3.4

Tauson to beat Frech @1.65

Sun to win a set against Kasatkina @1.9

Decided to leave out the Wimbledon qualification. There are a couple of matches that caught my eye, like Choinski potentially beating Laja, but nothing I like enough to actually go for it.

>>149367720
Iktf

>>149367804
The bet against Kasatkina is mostly just because I suspect that Kasatkina is not focused on tennis at all right now after having moved to Australia and having just married. Grass is also probabl Sun's best surface.

BOOOm! Vitaly got it and it wasnt even really close in last 2 games.

>>149368913
Never in doubt :)) thanks for the support bro

I have that feeling that City are going to score a record number of goals. Like having over 80% possesion with 36 chances created. 20+ shots, 11+ on target. Rodri is back and if Reijnders plays next to him that sounds really promising. And Savinho Foden Doku will have sparring partners while Haaland will be fed for a hattrick. This is the team that got 5 from Juventus, they play only shepards in their league, and when they faced one half decent team: Ronaldo's Al Nassr, they got 5 also. Pep hasn't had one of these overs in a while, but neither an opponent like this. 8-0?
ps: or Cherki or Marmoush or whoever plays. and the only cunt that could've ruin this (rico lewis) is suspended

staking strategy suggestion
50% city over 2.5 @1.55
30% city over 3.5 @2.35
20% city over 4.5 @4.10

CAUTION: be advised this post may be extremely persuasive to some anons

Rip pacers

Told you niggers HaliBITCH will play abd be the reason they lost.

For ufc this week I like topuria kkf royval dariush lima rodrigues amil and mcvey

>>149375936
ive got bad news for yankees fans

fliff odds suck but free is free

i feel like the texas rangers are on the cusp of turning things around here. really solid pitching from their starters and bullpen, but they struggle to produce runs. the heart of their lineup, seager, semien, and garcia, even include jung in there, are all batting way below their career averages. down from their career averages in almost every batting metric by quite a bit. if the season ended today, this would be seagers worst season in the bigs by quite a bit. baseball is a game of averages, and i dont expect perennial all stars to slump for 100+ games. i would not be surprised if they passed the mariners in the standings by all star break.

>>149377202
damn. you dont want it to hit anyway, because if it did you'd wish you'd wagered at least $1 or $10.. nah, you singlehandedly guaranteed the yankees won't win it all this year; take pride in that.

>did not bet in months
>pass some bet on France - Portugal youth
>put the earnings on Germany - Italy
>italy equalize at 90+6 despite being 9 v 11

Halibitch really ruptured his Achilles so bookies could rake in millions.

Anyone watch this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZHwR629-yw

Mjøndalen - Skeid (Norwegian 2 division called Obos-ligaen)
Consider going for over 1,5 goals here in total.
It is at 1.22 before match. Can easily rise to 1.30-1.40, high probability but as always play with caution.

>>149380566
no new info 5 minutes in. dropped it

"ah fuck it" day innit
danilovic 2.70
sun 3.10
joint 3.20

Mjøndalen - Skeid
Mjøndalen to win starting with +1 goal at @ 1.47.
Risk factor 6/10.

Two lines this weekend for ufc that should be ez money. Royval and mcvey. People are heavily overrating van who just came off a fight and mcvey is fighting dumas who just came off a felony arrest and is a legit retarded groid. Royval is fresh and should clean easily. Mcvey is a prospect who finishes people and actually wants to be there so he should smoke the jailbird who took the fight cause he needs money for his lawyers.

Mjøndalen Skeid already got over 1,5 goal.
im stuck in the mjøndalen + 1 bet tough xD

>>149378544
Seager and semien are dogs. Just like Olson and Riley with the bravos.

>>149383323
Good news bad news, huh?

>>149383702
kek skeid demolishing them its 1-4 now.
yeah sticking to over goals is almost always safer. ohwell i had a controlled sum on it but still xd

>>149367804
2 wins and 2 losses. Tauson made the 2-1 comeback after losing a close first set and Sun didn't just win a set but the whole match. Knew Kasatkina wouldn't perform but was too scared to go with the ML. Bencic got completely destroyed and Engel lost pretty convincingly too. Not much to say about these 2 losses. Don't regret Bencic for these odds but should have probably been wary of Engel given his lack of experience.

Picks for tomorrow:

Swan to beat Romeros Gormaz @1.7

Paolini to beat Fernandez @1.55

Sramkova to beat Cristian @1.5

>>149380781
Nice call with Joint. Jabeur has been shaky but didn't think she would lose here.

>Pirates/Brewers NRFI
>But also Brewers ML

Just fuck my shit up

>>149354547
>Value is PSG at 1.20
Nothing at 1.2 is ever value

>>149380781
lost (cashed out for a small profit)
won
won
profitable

moderately confident in all these. best bet is probably uchijima.

>>149388544
Nice try

I still believe Palmeiras will win

Will attack on that side with all their fans. And this 1-0 doesn't represent the truth. Should've been the other way around.

Miami doesn't have a bench, and Messi and Suarez are not even running. Palmeiras does have a bench, and as a matter of fact, some even better that what's on the pitch. Expecting them to push for the equalizer and get it, otherwise i'll just quit betting right here cause i'm all in on palmeiras over 0.5 @1.28 and a big bet prematch on them to win

Problem is the 2 baldies : infantino and the ref are clearly rigging it for pissi. And i have to admit you guys were right

1-2 final. Maybe 1-4 in a scenario where they collapse

Gonna vomit

>>149388955
It's called bridge jumping

Damn

Could've won in the end

vivianne araujo looks like a good dog this weekend

Aussie wisdom

10 weeks to NFL
wish there was something to bet on besides mlb and wnba

>>149394899
ufc

Bayern Munichen to win with +1 goal at start @1.27

>>149394899
Why u blacklisted "soccer", you baboon? If you have flair you could be betting on Eurovision fwiw

>>149395412
I see you don't mind these low odds. In 5 days Mexico plays Saudi Arabia in the Gold Cup quarterfinals. I think they're gonna win the whole thing, which is 2.60, but to advance in this one is 1.27; no idea what the saudis are even doing here but they're getting sent home without a doubt

>Bayern Munich to win against Benefica going at near even money
What the fuck am I missing here??? How is this not free money, is Bayern missing players or something? I can probably hedge with a draw as well because that's going at +350, what are the bookies smoking
Someone please tell me if I'm missing something big here, benefica are not that good surely

>>149395592
Ur right. It's cause they can top the group even with a draw, otherwise they'd be 1.40 - 1.50

>>149395650
in american doc do i bet on ze draw

>>149395695
You can take bayern draw no bet @1.45

>>149395526
low odds is how i made most my money. I never play the odds only the outcome probability. I bet big on lower odds often.

>>149395650
>>149395592
but its important to note here that Bayern will have alot tougher draw if they finish 2nd they then face PSG.
so bayern will for sure make sure that they atleast draw. which is why i like win with +1 goal to start at @1.27.

oh also i read bayern subreddit and they all are talking about how the club needs the money and that reaching semis give them 70-80 mill that they desparetely need.

>>149396326
Same

Raleigh has 4HR in the last 3 games. u0.5 hr
MGM at -235

Confident in my prediction model. It predicted the draw for Inter Miami. Porto game was crazy.

The next big test is Mamelodi to beat Fluminense. I doubt it, but the model says otherwise.

>>149386553
2 wins and 1 loss. Not too bad. Paolini struggled in both sets but thankfully closed them out. Sramkova wiped the floor with Cristian. Only thing that didn't work was Swan. She has been struggling for a longer while but didn't think she would be this bad with home crowd support against someone who barely has any real experience on grass. Guess even that was too much to ask for. Lesson learned with Swan. Picks for tomorrow coming later tonight.

oakland vs boca is some insane odds

>>149396872
did you win any prizes so far?

>>149397868
i dont follow soccer but that draw is tempting.

just bought some silver. what do you guys buy with wins?

>>149396370
>>149395650
>Bayern now at better than even money
Ok now I'm just suspicious as fuck
>>149397868
>>149398382
they lost there last 2 games by like 5+ goals lmao Boca are gonna rape them

after watching benfica and bayern starting 11's think i'm gonna stick to btts

>>149398620
look at their lineup, they rested all top players like olise kane musiala

>>149396638
>over 0.5 HR -235
Absolutely horrible bet. Take the under at plus money every time

>>149398382
You really dont follow it if you think there's an universe where boca doesnt destroy them

>>149398717
Yeah I'm glad I didn't bet on that shit Benefica just scored
This is why I mostly only bet on boxing/mma, there's too many variables in football

>>149398620
>>149398763
like i said i dont follow soccer but it seems like theyve been getting embarrassed so they might park 12 in the box and take the 0-0 win to save face

>>149398742
under 0.5 HR is down to -230 on 365.

>>149398742
>>149401123
which is exactly what i was waiting for.

FUCK YOU LEROY SANE YOU UTTER UTTER CUNT

holy shit FUCK YOU KANE AND FUCK YOU SANE???????? WHAT THE ACUTAL FUCK WHY THE FUCK DID U RUN INFRONT OF KIMMICH SHOT U MONG AND SANE TWO 1 ON 1 CANT EVEN SCORE.... FUCK THIS SHIT

all in on the brewers winning today

is there any valid reason for soccers dumbass clock rule or just rigging?

how do we feel about no run first inning LAD COL @+150?

>>149401961
i like it but too expensive for baseball

>>149397217
Rocha to beat Barrios Vera @2.75

Brooksby to beat Borges @2.1

Fett to beat Snigur @3

Ostapenko to beat Eala @1.6

>>149398763
i'm literally never posting or betting ever again.

>>149403039
see you tomorrow.

>>149403039
dont be too hard on yourself. probably a rig job. im sure there were some hefty bets on boca after seeing how the 1st 2 went

>>149403039
>walking away before you win big

>>149403189
>>149403191
>>149403260
I didn't even bet because the gains for boca winning were so minuscule, it is simply not worth betting on football because these crackheads are way too unreliable, my last bet is going to be for flamengo today then I'm stopping because there are no obvious matches anymore

>>149403457
if you bet boca to win you should quit. odds were so short some of my books stopped offering it.

>>149403509
I didn't, didn't you read my post

>>149403457
any soccer game where the handicap at -5 is still negative odds, is just not even worth touching.

>>149403457
misread, sorry.
crackheads is a good descriptor. cant trust any of them to do what theyre supposed to.

>>149403457
>flamengo
Im not sure....

>>149403955
they are going to play with their B team but even their B team is ridiculously strong, Pedro is probably going to start because he needs to get in form and he is ridiculously good. There's just no way flamengo doesn't win against fucking Miami fc

>>149404003
I mean los angeles fc, even worse, they have no pissi cuckitini or el raton

>Tarik Skubal is on the mound tonight against the A's? Easy under.
>2-2 in the bottom of the first

At least tonight ended quickly

>>149405090
i had the same thought but decided it was too easy

>>149403457
Such unfair result

Meant for Flamengo >>149404003
. Should've won

MONTERREY

Next bet is Rayados de Monterrey @1.78 against Urawa Red Cucks

>>149388738
won
lost
lost
won
won
won
i'll take it

UFC 317 Saturday 6/28

Terrible run lately. Underdogs and method of victory bets have been losing. Recent events have been favorite and decision heavy besides WMMA which had some upsets. If I get my ass kicked again I'm taking a few weeks off.

>Topuria vs Oliviera under 2.5 rounds -175
I got this at -175 the other day, seen it at -225 more recently. I think Topuria most likely murks Charles, but Oliviera has real power and an incredible sub game. I'm ready to lose money if this goes past 12.5 minutes.

>Pantoja vs KKF over 3.5 rounds -150
There have been 10 title fights this year and 7 have been decisions. I like this to be a very entertaining fight that goes the distance. Pantoja is crazy durable and KKF has very solid TDD. Plus its flyweights.

>Smith by KO vs Price
Haven't seen a line yet. This is a sanctioned execution. Might be Price's last UFC fight and he's fighting a young killer with great power. Smith will heem him, most likely in the first round. Parlay piece because this will prob be -350 or shorter

>Moicano vs Dariush fight goes distance +110
Seems like these old man fights always go to decision. Couple of 36 year olds who have been in wars. Dariush may have ring rust, hasn't been in there in a while. I don't think this will be an exciting fight despite the history of these two.

>Lima -200 vs Talbott
I think Talbott sucks. Grappler vs striker, give me the grappler. Talbott has to pitch a shutout against takedowns and keep it standing to have a chance. I could see Lima taking him down and mauling him.

>Royval +115 vs Van
This line has moved a ton. Van is taking too big a step up. Royval is much larger and longer and IMO will piece up Van, who is fun to watch but overrated. Van has been a can crusher so far in UFC, Royval is levels better than his past opponents. Getting Royval at plus money is a must-bet.

1/2

>>149409581

>Amil +130 vs Delgado
Love the way Amil fights. Nonstop, all action, pressure pressure pressure. Delgado is a good prospect, but I like Amil to drag him into deep waters, outwork him in a 3-round war and get the nod. This should be a really fun fight, don't miss this one.

>Diniz -330 vs Hines
Another parlay piece. Diniz should dust this mid level LFA heavyweight. Too much power and skill.

>McKinney -180 vs Borschev
Laying chalk on McKinney is terrifying. Guy is a glass cannon personified. Amazing power and volume with zero chin. That said, Borschev gets hit too much and has been dropped multiple times in UFC. Chase Hooper dropped him. If McKinney touches his chin it should be over quick.

>Rodrigues -180 vs Hermansson
I've heard a couple people compare this to the Hermansson vs Pyfer fight as a reason to pick Hermansson. Difference is the Pyfer fight was 5 rounds, this is 3. Jack lost the first 2 rounds vs Pyfer and now he's 2 years older. Robocop has the power to keep Jack on his back foot and the grappling to negate Jack laying on him. Robocop wins by DEC or KO.

2/2

>>149409581
>>149409611
/bet/ting aside this is a fun card and y'all should give it a shot if you don't usually watch UFC. Eurobros can catch a replay since it will be on late

i bet on the mariners +0 after 5 innings at 1.90 odds today, and the mariners went up 5-0 in the third, and i could have cashed the bet out at 90% value, but i just assumed one of the worst teams in baseball recently was basically put away for the night, but then the mariners blew a 5 run lead in the next 2 innings so the bet became a push. sucks.

>>149409581
royvals concussion situation is worrying me

>>149398350
Fuck all

>>149402420
fett sucks

>>149411309
I know, but Snigur sucks as well.

aiava 2.25

tauson 3.00
joint 3.20

>>149411507
is there anyway to tell what time the match will start?

>>149412278
it starts when it starts. tennis be like that.

>>149412278
I think the official scheduled time is 17:15 but they're scheduled to play on court 15 which is currently being used by Jacquet and Gaubas who are still in the first set. So it might take a while. It's often hard to tell when matches will start exactly because it always depends on the previous matches. That's not even factoring in the weather.

>>149409917
He’s a fighter. They’re always concussed. Van is out of his depth here. He’ll go back to can crushing after this L

pitching duel today, pirates brewers under 3.5 runs through the first 5 innings.

>>149411507
never in doubt
thanks, germbro.

im 0/3 on the club world cup so far

>>149415049
i hope royval wins and its just fud but taking a second concussion in camp and then rushing to fight van isnt good

>>149402420
2 wins, a push and a loss. Brooksby won pretty convincingly against Borges and Fett pulled off a comeback after losing a close first set. Pretty much dominated afterwards.Snigur really is terrible. No idea why she was this much of a favourite. Thankfully Ostapenko retired in the third set after being gown a break and taking a medical timeout. Started the match with a bagel and then couldn't really play anymore. Been a while since a retirement saved me from a likely loss.

>>149415117
You're welcome.

>>149411548
Good call with Joint again. Swear I was eyeing it all day yesterday but thought I must be overlooking something. Nope, just another typical Raducanu loss as a big favourite. Will never hesitate again to fade her when she faces someone who can put up a fight.

Are there any sites that have odds on Arsenal finishing outside the top 4?
I reckon that would definitely be worth a cheeky bet.

>>149416366
im arsenal fan so im biased ofcourse, but to bet against a team consisting of gabriel, rice, saliba, saka with a myriad of other really great players + strenghtening for the summer, the bet doesnt seem that good.
ofcourse if you get great oods then sure go for it if you believe it.

>bet btts & over 2.5 in club world cup
>0-0
>same teams when i don't bet
>4-3, 2-2, 4-1

>>149415657
For tomorrow:

Holmgren to beat Watanuki @5

Bautista-Agut to beat Michelsen @1.85

Navarro to beat Pegula @2.35

Alexandrova to win a set against Swiatek @1.5

>>149416574
Isn’t it knockout stage now? Knockout games are usually low scoring

jones 2.20

There have been 8 games in a row in CWC that did not produce a BTTS + Over 2.5 goals, by logic of universe this means at least 3 out of 4 last group stage matches will end up BTTS + Over 2.5 goals

Juve City BTTS Over 2.5
Wydad Al Ain BTTS Over 2.5
Al Hilal Pachuca 1 & BTTS
Salzburg Real 2 & Under 5.5 goals Total

>>149416402
lol

It took me two years but I'm finally up $60. I think I should just quit while I've gotten ahead, it's too stressful

>>149427835
nice

i did the math and you can effectively buy fanduel rewards levels through craps.
level 2 $25
level 3 $123
level 4 $345
level 3 easily pays for itself. might try for level 4 next month

>>149427835
i made $50 in the past 2 weeks just from promo arbing. i still get stressed out when i lose $1, though

me? my losses aren't that big, one or two big stakes would win it back but i haven't got the funds to risk it.

Holmgren really ended up getting broken in the last set of the match at 5-3 when he two match points. Now he's probably going to lose.

>>149431286
Holmgren thankfully pulled it off anyway. Was about to be really mad if he had actually choked this away.

>>149431286
And 3 break points after that

Model has 0-2 City ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

fucking juventus shits

Man City to win at 1.77 pre match was a great bet.
Guardiola NEVER fucks around in group stages, especially not when the bracket in 1st place is X1000 times easier than the bracket for 2nd place

>>149436377
Yep

>>149418111
Holmgren saved the day for me. Still no clue why he was such a massive underdog. Everything else was a complete miss. Not much I like for tomorrow. Only going with Brooksby to beat Humbert @2.75 in Eastbourne.

>>149437387
Thoughts on tonight’s CWC matches? I’m considering Al hilal to win and Real to win simply because I think FIFA wants it rigged so that those two teams go through.
Al hilal owners are a major sponsor of the tournament

>>149437831
Taking both. Al hilal has to score early cause they don't have a bench

>>149437392
youre not reaching for action with brooksby, are you?

>>149438846
did u place bets bro?
I didnt dare to place on Al hilal even though I felt that FIFA would rig it for them. I placed on Real Madrid tough! ggs!

>>149425509
I actually won this parlay on 13 odds because the odds were similar on Al Hilal win & BTTS and Al Hilal wins & 2-5 goals total so I switched

Man City gonna wreck Al Hilal like 4-0

Valur at 2.15 against relegation team away after winning 6-1 previous game, those are some attractive odds.

>>149441691
Yeah. Gj

>>149440188
I wouldn't go for it if it had any lower odds but I think Humber is being a bit overrated given that he has been struggling with injuries lately.

xu 4.50

Valur already 0-2 up after 15 minutes and the bookies raised the odds to 2.40 before match, what are they smoking

>>149437392
>>149440188
Brooksby ended up winning 2-1. Kind of threw the first set but won the next 2 anyway even after getting broken while serving for the set in the third one. Ended up being way closer than it should have been.

>>149409611
I like McKinney by submission he's smart enough to know he can ragdoll Slava Clause

>>149450548
For tomorrow I'm going with Pegula to win a set against Swiatek @1.8 in the Bad Homburg final.

>>149452920
k

stojsavljevic 6.00
arango 5.50
uchijima 5.50
avanesyan 9.00
klugman 6.50

>>149441904
>>149450429
Nice

win

kashima antlers @ 1.90 (this has dropped quite a bit since the afternoon, it was 2.20 earlier in the day)

fagiano okayama is the lowest scoring side on the road in the j league (5 goals in 10 games). they have failed to score a goal in 5/10 road games this season. they have not managed to score more than 1 goal on the road this season. 10/11 of their road matches this season ended under 2.5 goals. despite not scoring many goals, they are a very tight defense. tied for 3rd least goals conceded on the road, and 2nd least overall, they will play like a newly promoted side, very conservative taking chances, and they will grind out a draw just to secure 1 point. kashima antlers are struggling for consistency right now. LDWL in their past 4, they only scored 1 goal in each of those 4 games. if kashima wins this game it will likely be a grinded out 1-0 or 2-0. i dont see a burst of offense coming against a tight defense like okayama. under 2.5 @ 1.75 is a decent alternative if you dont want to hope they can grind out 1 goal win.

So many Wimbledon matches on Monday. Going to take a good look at every potentially interesting match over the weekend.

>>149452920
Pegula won the first set 6-4 so that's a win already.

I unironically bet my Grandmas house and land on Germany win or draw on U21

Korean football is very good for betting

>>149460812

>>149464553
Decided I'm also going for Brooksby to win a set against Fritz @1.8 in the Eastbourne final. Think the odds have drifted a bit too far at this point.

Chelsea to qf 1.71
Mexico to qf 1.24
@2.12

>Always lose when I bet on the Yankees on a Saturday
>Lost 3 straight bets that have involved the Detroit Tigers
>Betting on them both today

Surely this will work out.

>>149465219
Was too greedy with Brooksby. Uneventful 2-0 loss to Fritz. Not too mad since he beat Humbert but should have had some restraint today.

Is oliveria worth it @4.5

Kristiansund a mid table team that beat Rosenborg 4-1 previous round has 2.25 odds away against a last team on table with 1 point and goal difference 4-31, what are we thinking /bet/?

>>149456939
Some interesting picks but can I ask what you see in Klugman? Not sure I can actually see her beating Fernandez and I don't even think highly of Fernandez. I know Krueger has been bad lately but Stojsavljevic is pretty brave as well.

>>149478507
welp. im all in

>>149478960
just going with my gut nowadays. if it loses it loses. yolo.

GooOOOOOOL .... de MEHICOOOOOO

will they riggi for cucktini tomorrow?

>>149489784
Riggi as in not conceiding too many?

>>149464886
Thank the lord, you almost had the poor woman sleeping on the streets

>>149353727 (OP)

mcveys fight getting cancelled fucked me so hard

There's this technique learned in bet school, often used by pro bettors, including myself, called "translating" where you 'translate' someone else's comment on the internet, or your thoughts, into a bet. For example, when it was known Inter Miami will be playing PSG an anon made a thread saying "another 8-2". Another anon replied "implying Miami can score 2" , meaning in their unconcious minds they believe PSG will trash Miami, therefore translated into a bet it'll be PSG overs (from a tactical pov could be PSG 3+ @1.65 or PSG 4+ @2.65) . That is if you believe in the wisdom of other folks. But you don't look for tipsters who are making a script and and are trying to find reasons for their pick. You look for fans who are confidently saying "there's no way we don't win this one", or "bros, it's Auckland City" . You can also use this method in reverse by acting like you're about to bet on the opposite side, and if sounds like a really bad idea than you know what to bet. For example, Mackenzie McDonald to take a set off Jannick Sinner @3.0. and you're thinking "this bum doesn't have a chance, feels like i'm throwing money away" so you translate it to Sinner 3:0 . Or there's the "laughing" method, where a sucker is laughing that the favourite is down 0-2 at half time. He's laughing because it's a surprise, because it's something unusual that shouldn't be happening. He's not thinking "wait a minute, the favourites are gonna come back in this game, let me take them to score over 1.5 and over 0.5 for big stakes" , instead he's hoping for the upset, even thou he's loudly saying to his friends "i don't think they're gonna hold on to this result to be honest" and when it's 2-2 he's telling them "what did i tell you?" , but did he translate it to a bet?

>>149490658
psg wont keep the foot on the gas they just did it with seattle

>a penny saved is a penny earned
dont bet soccer

>>149353727 (OP)
I studied Donaghy extensively, and the nba tried to be rigged but can’t anymore.
Like the refs will give the big market or the team trailing in the play offs series like 65% of the calls, even today. The problem is that with the threeball era and the injuries, Adam Silver and co want to rig it and make money but they just can’t. Some nigga shoots a few threes from his apartment and wins a game out of nowhere. And also the bookies do take into consideration the refs before you did.
So probably the era of rigged nba to make money lasted up to the end of the dynasties. And it’s now over.

MIAMI DNB 9.75 IS INSAAAAAANE VALUE. INSAAAAAAAANNE. MESSI MESSI MESSI

>>149482720
I get it, only one has to really hit anyway. If we're talking about longshot upsets, do you think Stojanovic has a shot against Kalinskaya? The more I look at it, the more I like it. But not fully decided on anything yet.

>>149492321
players are literally tanking their own totals so their friends can make money. its more rigged than ever

my sneaky bookie removed the “to qualify” bets from the gold cup quarterfinal matches today
disappeared sometime yesterday and still go this morning

>>149498236
you only use one book?
fanduel and 365 have it

>>149499171
There’s no fanduel or 365 where I live

>>149499800
washington?

Had a all-in bet on psg @1,2

>>149501328
gigabased

>>149501127
worse, South Dakota
I have to drive 2 plus hours to the Indian reservation casino if I want to in person bet and the markets are super limited
I usually use bovada and then supplement with Fliff for the free cash offers

nice

>>149503400
Checked

First round of Wimbledon is looking rough. Still have to make some decisions.

>>149503400
how many cheeseburgers does that buy?

>>149501818
i hope you at least make a lot of money working in oil

>>149507234
that's 85 usd or about 17 big macs

>>149506426
Picks for tomorrow:

Zheng to beat Siniakova @1.5

Tomova to win a set against Jabeur @2.35

Birrell to beat Vekic @2.75

I think Tuesday looks a bit more interesting but I'll see how these 3 go first.

Trusted the Brewers way too much today. Had their ML on one and -1.5 on another.

costa rica is going to blow that early gift big time

Thanks annon let's keep the treat going.

>>149496424
it's possible but i'm not feeling it

>>149512193
i was wrong. and thats okay

locked in my wimbledon choices

>tfw broke and won't be able to /bet/ until next saturday.
Fuck. FUUUUUUUUCK

jej

i got so lucky with the brewers game today. the book let me cash out the bet for a small gain when brewers were up 2-1 in the eighth inning and the rockies had a runner in scoring position. the brewers were really struggling to even make contact with the ball today. then in the bottom of the eighth they get 1-2-3d, and then back to the top of the 9th, solo blast to tie the game, and i would have been locked to a loss if i didnt cash out.

>>149515657
thats me until the usyk fight. btw all ur money on usyk by decision.

how do people model projected runs in a baseball game? they cant just be calculating distribution based off runs scored and runs against because the pitcher influences the game too much. is it some sort of calculation based off like whip and ops?

If Real Madrid don't win tomorrow I am giving up on gambling forever

>>149517034
How much?

>>149517203
€50 I win I have it on Betano

>>149517203
If I lose the first one I get 100 lei bonus bet but I would rather win. And I placed another bet on Real Madrid to qualify. I was thinking of playing just 90 min 1 on Real but idk I thought to play it safe in case I lose the first one and they draw like a bunch of pussies

>>149517388
>>149517459
God speed. I'm taking Inter today (to qf)

>>149517677
Yea I see a low scoring game but Inter should take the W.

>155434 odds
wish me luck

>>149517929

>>149518100
waow your luck is working

>>149518134
9 legs parley is crazy

>UCD Waves and USVI Women happened 11 years ago

Kill me now

R.I.P. D. Wayne Lukas

>>149518253
i have faith

>>149518305
Lol that is like hitting the lottery

Gonna put a grand on canelo usyk barrios and caterall parlay

>>149521898
post it

>>149508451
Tomova won the first set and would have probably won the second one as well before Jabeur retired. Knew she wasn't ready to play. Thankfully she played out the first set before retiring so it counts as a win wasn't pushed. Birrell lost in a quick 2-0. Not much to say about that. Mad I stayed away from Kartal beating Ostapenko. Was eyeing it all day but couldn't bring myself to go for it with these odds. Siniakova - Zheng got moved to tomorrow so still waiting on that.

Going to post actual picks for tomorrow later. Still need to consider some things.

>>149517677
Rip bro.
Never trust Chivu he is a shit coach
Overrated by stupid Romanian media like all Romanian ones

>>149525729
Holmgren to win a set against Halys @1.65

Comesana to beat Moutet @2.75

Stojanovic to beat Kalinskaya @3.4

Zhu to win a set against Kudermetova @2.3

>>149528003
dont know why but i dont like these picks. not that it will stop me

the 35 win pittsburg pirates just swept the mets. cardinals ML is an absolute steal. rain delay, you can still get in

>>149528294
I had my doubts about Stojanovic. That's why I even asked the aussie in here about it. He said he doesn't really like it as well but I can't shake the impression that Kalinskaya is not ready to perform. Could be completely wrong and we're going to see a quick 6-3 6-2 kind of match but for these odds I had to go for it.

>>149528383

Rain delays have fucked me bad this season. I had Cardinals ML and even a Cruz HR and now I'm scared off of both lol

>>149529109
somehow the pirates are doing it again. at least ill get good value betting on them to lose tomorrow with skenes on the hill

>>149528003

Done, let's see how we go.

>>149528383
>Cardinals ML is a steal
It hope nobody listens to retards like you.
7-0 you were not even close lol

>>149531654
>the flag
>the post

>>149531829
>the flag
>the retard
>the fat American retard
>the Jewish controlled country
>Kikeland
>MIGA retard
>the shit bets
>Cardinals ML is an absolute steal
>Cardinals lose by 7
>people listening to him going broke
>Luckily nobody listens to him
>because he is a retard

>>149532607

>>149533200
No. Why would I be? I don't look like an average fat American, like you. And my parley is printing soon, I don't lose everyday and have shit bets like you.
You should be mad you are fat and ugly and broke and keep losing every bet

>>149533200
Actually you know what keep showing your bets so I bet the opposite of what you bet so I win and you keep losing and keep going broke fat retard.

>put stupid money on city
>chase loss with a bet on al hilal in et

texas rangers +0 after 5 innings @ 1.55
houtson astros 1.60

>>149533200
you broke him
congrats

>>149536445
His tips were better than the Yanks. 1-1.

Zheng and Comesana are comically bad.

>>149531654
cardinals are a lock tonight.
draftkings offering a $5 no sweat. try to convert $5 casino credit in roulette but gor zeroed. still want to make the bet so i go to deposit and its fucked up so i cant.
also the pirates scored 12% of their runs on the year in the past 4 games. skenes will ice the bats

>>149543278
Ok I am going to gamble to opposite of you.
I am going to bet on pirates.
Also getting blown up like that it is guaranteed next game they won't play shit

>>149543278
Skenes is a good pitcher too they gonna fuck the Cardinals

My 5 best bets today:
>Pirates -1.5 (+135)
>DET-WSH u9.5 (-120)
>LAA-ATL o9.5 (+100)
>Orioles ML (+150)
>Dodgers -2.5 (+110)

>>149543912
also, Fever and Lynx play for the Commissioner Cup tonight. Eliminaton games in basketball, always take the under.

>>149544411
Ima go under and lynx spread

>>149544411
>>149545326
betting on womens basketball is insane. they simply do not have the skill to be reliable. would be better off betting high school ball (if theyd let us)

>>149545586
clarks hurt and theyre playing for half a mil the lynx will slap them the wnba is just levels betting

>>149545586
I agree with this anon.
Gambling on any women's sport is insane

you guys betting on the hot dog eating contest on friday?

>>149546281
Joey chestnut is a lock

>>149546281
im not paying any attention to that shit unless they take away the water

>>149546751
and make them keep it down for 2 hours.

MADRID HALA MADRID!

>>149537805
you must be new here

>>149547017
>>149517388
Keep crying and starving broke fat american
Can you show me any wins you had this week?
>>149528383
>>149543278
This are your wins?

>>149546198
The WNBA has roughly the same consistency as the NBA from an ATS perspective. The under in elimination games in these in-season tournaments hits at a 70% rate.

With that said. I took the under at 165.5 before Clark was announced out. It's now down to 158.5. So I can't vouch for it at the number.

>>149528383
Like I said I am always gonna bet the opposite of you so you keep losing and going broke fat american retard and I keep winning

>>149547505
i cant sneed that

>>149547505
that was a post about yesterdays game, if you bet against him yesterday you would have won. he didnt say anything about todays game. the pirates dont score many runs when skenes is pitching. today could be a bit of a slurper.

>>149547791
I thought he said Cardinals gonna win again today
>>149543278
Idk if it is the same guy
Anyway it doesn't matter

>>149543912
I took Bombston over 10. Both pitchers suck. Thoughts?

>>149547791
these are both mine. i like to bet against streaks and I'll keep going through the mariners series if i need to.
>>149528383
>>149543278

>>149528003
Only thing that worked was Holmgren to win a set. Everything else failed miserably. Even Zheng lost as well. Terrible showing. I know she has never been good on grass but I thought she would be able to take out a struggling Siniakova who had to retire from her last match. Apparently even that was too much to ask for. Don't think I'll bother with Zheng on grass any time soon again. Comesana was also laughably bad but should have known that Moutet's form is too good for him right now. Zhu couldn't do shit either and Stojanovic kept it respectable but still lost 2-0 at the end of the day.

Terrible picks all round. What maddens me is that keep eyeing stuff all day that would have easily worked. Wanted to be greedy and go for the Holmgren ML because I thought it was absurd how favoured Halys was. Of course Holmgren wins 3-0. Wanted to find the right spot to fade Zverev and Gauff because they tend to struggle with the bounce on grass (have mentioned this several times before) and what happens? They both lose in the first round. Yastremska ML was staring back at me all day but I have to go for shit like Zhu winning a set.


Tomorrow:

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Krueger @1.85

Vondrousova to beat Raducanu @1.5

Rhakimova to beat Paolini @6.5

Watch Raducanu and Krueger play the best matches of their careers tomorrow.

>>149548260
Lol >Rhakimova to beat Paolini, I don't know much about tennis and barley watch it but this bet is fucking retarded. How dumb you have to be to bet that? I hope you trolling

how much does humidity actually affect the flight of a baseball? is there any sort of proven statistic that shows more homeruns are hit on clear days no humidity vs a game on a humid slightly overcast day? or is lower air density just a meme?

getting nuggets at +1100

>>149548298
it makes the balls softer

>>149548296
When's the last time you shared a bet with odds higher than @5 that won? I did a couple of days ago with Holmgren beating Watanuki. But thanks for the concern. Feel free to laugh when Paolini wins in an easy 2-0 but the point of the bet isn't to claim that Rakhimova is definitely going to win. Paolini has looked shockingly bad in the first round and Rakhimova has been sneakily good for her level lately. Not going to bother writing anything more because you just wanted to insult anyway.

>>149548308
>give the book a 1 year loan and pray jokic gives a shit
why, though?

>>149548411
He probably watches Skap Attack a retarded channel who sucks Jokic's cock all day and gives shit tips.
His fans are super delusional so don't be surprised by the retardation

>>149547408
lol, lmao even

>>149548411
because half the sportsbooks on the strip already moved them to +700 and they'd need to endure a 76ers-like collapse to regress from last year
t. vegasfag

>>149548485
Give it a few days you gonna lose it all

>>149548512
I’m going to link this post when you inevitably blogpost about how you’ve lost your whole bankroll betting on a second division portuguese side to score a goal yet again

>>149548485
whats your unit size?

>>149548485
Being down by -$800 is crazy.
I like that he flexes too
Pure retardium
Flexing with losing money
Imagine being so frustrated that you have to flex with your losses to compensate for your fat small cock

>>149548559
$5 units

>>149548492
still too far away for me to put real money on it but i see the value. will start adding them to my infinite futures parlays. havent hit a big one yet but i always manage to hedge for a small profit

>>149548564

>>149548582
very nice return assuming its not inflated by boosts or free bets.

>>149548649
$40 of it was from a $20 bonus that I played through

>>149548649
It's inflated by boosts and free bets. He is too broke to play real money
He lost it all on Cardinals ML >>149528383
>>149543278
He is probably down by a lot. He also doesn't show his bets which is suspicious

>>149548708
lmao you are so mad

When you never show your tips or bets it is an instant red flag
Also when you lose and give shit tips and bets all day and lose everyday like this guy>>149528383

>>149548783
I’m not the cardinals bettor you idiot

>>149548792
Why you # me in the first place if you aren't him? >>149548485
I was talking to him not you.
Why you entered the chat like a bitch?
You also didn't show your bets so where is the proof?
This americans love sitting on my dick bro I can't breath anymore from them sucking and sitting on my dick all day

>>149548783
i am the cardinals bettor and its the start of martigale, im down $2 and ive already recovered $20 in the casino

>>149548613
At what odds would you think the nuggets would be a considering the thunder are hovering around +275 at some of the smaller sportsbooks in vegas? I've made enough money from NBA teams playing road-back2backs, horrendously bias NBA media awards, NBA teams punting in-season tournaments, and Scott foster extension refball to cover losses and squeak out profits but I've never actually made enough money from NBA to bother posting about it.

>>149548877
*At what odds would you think the nuggets would be a worthy bet,

>>149548859
Good see I can appreciate people who I talked to before and don't enter randomly in our conversations like this bum bitch >>149548485

>>149548892
At none because they are not winning

>>149548877
this far out id need it to be at least +2500. around where the sixers and celtics are now. theres a lot that can derail the nuggets before the start of the season. lebron is probably going to do some desperate shit.

>>149548940
that's fair, the west is a gauntlet that can get skewed by a spiteful lebron move.
>>149548936
i share your lack of trust in the nuggets but who else are you so bullish on to flat out deny the possibilty that denver overcomes a young and wildly inconsistent team like OKC or Houston

>>149549243
I hope you remember Denver lost to OKC this playoffs I don't know why you think Denver will be better next season. Jokic will never have such a good season like he had this season. Houston is better than this season they got KD they are stacked. If Houston had KD this season they would have destroyed GSW and went to the finals stop the cap.
Stop listening to that retard Skap Attack his tips are always wrong

Two straight days of there being no homeruns to speak of. The Braves offense doing what they are doing against Tyler Anderson of all people is the biggest sin so far tonight though.

>>149550546
Orioles just hit a 2 run homer

>>149547505
>>149543278
>>149548859
Lol thanks for the money.
You are the worst gambler ever.
Keep posting your picks so I bet the opposite of you dumbass

bucsa 4.50

>>149549652
Denver had a zombie team and took them to 7 i wouldn't consider an armless mpj and a hamstringless ag as something to write home about

Bernard Tomic is currently -110 against a guy who is 1-8 in his last matches against 1k+ ranked competiion and who is himself ranked 918

astros early pay out and rangers ahead after 5 innings, thank you texas baseball teams.

>>149551557
What so Cam Johnson is better to you?
I see nothing but a consistent casual.
Consistent casul got traded for other consistent casual.
There is no change or difference whatsoever

>>149551610
Lmao in many ways I tried to alert people but I exposed the most bullshit fixed match ever. How did Bernard Tomic lose to a 900 ranked player who was actively losing 2-0 to 1.3k ranked players. He was also up the 2nd set

Tafa should heem tokos on the 12th

>>149550948
what part of martingale do you not understand?

vegasbro talked me into it. heres the 1st of what will probably be 50 parlays with the nuggets

>bet on tennis
>start delayed
i dont how anyone has time to follow it

>>149550979
Great call.

made 2k on al hilal win

>>149556191
Elaborate STLBro

>>149559468
martingale is the betting strat where you double down after every loss to recover. pirates suck and are very due for a loss.
basically im in the middle of betting that they wont win 9 in a row.

>>149556191
1 for 9 RISP
7 LOB
pirates have the angels

>>149556191
You also said Mariners gonna win they didn't either.
Anyway what are your tips for today so I bet the opposite.
Considering you have you bet for long time m

>MIN @ MIA u8.5
>NYY @ TOR o9
>LAA @ ATL u9.5
>BAL @ TEX u8.5
>HOU @ COL o10.5
>SF @ ARI o8.5
>CHW @ LAD o9

>>149559468
Martingale is doubling your bet every time you lose
>$5 bet
>lose
>$10 bet
>lose
>$20 bet
>lose
>$40 bet
>lose
>$80 bet
>win
Now you’re up $5

>>149560824
Wow losing $75 in hopes you get $5 lol

>>149560824
Instead of betting $80 and winning twice and being up by $200+ you have to be retarded do retarded shit

>>149560824
Don't listen to this guy. Martingale is the dumbest blind bet system ever. It presupposes that it's impossible to lose 6 or 7 in a row, and you just hemorrhage money as you quadruple and quintuple down. It's desperate and stupid.
I'm almost positive that this meme was started by bookies.

>>149560912
>>149560960
you’re horribly bad at math
are you actually that retarded or just trolling?

>>149561411
No you are retarded if you bet against Pirates for 3 day straights. Opposite of your retarded small low IQ brain you would be up by $200 with $80 retard. Now because you are a retard you are down by nearly $50 in hopes you recover your money and win $5. You are the most retarded person in history even your fellow Americans laugh at you. You are a joke. Worst gambler ever
>>149561086

>>149561484
u placing any bets on norway W vs swizz W?

>>149561411
I nearly made $10 just by betting against your retarded low IQ brain
>>149547505
If I bet against you for 3 straight days I would be up by $200. You will never ever make that much money ever in your life with your low IQ retarded idea

>>149548296
Thoughts on Rakhimova winning 2-1 against Paolini, you expert? You must have shared lots of 6.5 winners yourself lately. Shut the fuck up.

>>149561484
lmao
you get so mad so easily

>>149561489
I was thinking 2+ but idk. What you got for the game?

>>149561518
oh no. i wasted a 50% boost and $3 in bonus bets and I only made 70 cents

>>149561551
im considering +1 to norway at 1,33 but im really not sure bro.
only bet i really like so far is real madrid to qualify at 1,33 vs dortmund

>>149561557
>>149561518
how will i ever recover?

>>149561526
Ok? I don't care. I never bet on tennis.
You got lucky

>>149561518
>>149561557
>>149561579
if only i had some money left for the mariners series

>>149561563
Yes wait for real games. Don't gamble everyday like a degen

>>149561518
>>149561557
>>149561579
>>149561621
it not like i developed a risk free system that generates hundreds of dollars a money. that would be crazy

>>149561627
>the flag
>the post
zero self awareness

>>149561645
I hope your system will fail and you will be down by 7k retard. Can't wait for that day

>>149561610
Share your lucky @5 or @6 wins please. I literally explained why I picked Rakhimova and you come here and call it a shit pick for literally no reason and when you get called you don't even admit you were wrong. Just that you don't even follow the sport which means you don't even have any idea what a good pick could be. Starting to think you might be the retard.

Do everyone a favour and shut the fuck up with your obnoxious posts.

>>149561649
>>149533320
>>149533633
>>149528383
Do I have to say more about you?

>>149561674
Wow shit pick your Russian bitch won 6-4 wow you didn't get lucky sure bitch stfu

>>149561669
you will face karmic retribution for your insolence

>>149561702
Good for me that karma doesn't exist. I am not a retarded chink or pajeet like you to believe that shit.

>>149561692
anyone whos been around /bet/ longer than just the past thread knows you have zero room to call anyone else a bad bettor

>>149561714
Lol I am not longer than last thread retard haha you are so fucking retarded please kys pajeet chink

>>149561701
She started dominating after the first set. Fuck off already. I wouldn't even mind if you shared anything worthwhile but literally all you do is stir shit for no good reason. That Rakhimova win is better than anything you have shared in your entire life and we all know that is true. Talked enough to you already. That's it for now.

>>149561741
How much are you up by? Show pic

>>149561733
>no really I’m a different retarded gypsy addicted to gambling!

>>149561770
your dumb ass wouldn’t be able to figure it out anyways

>>149561784
>Calls someone an addict but also does this
>>149561645
>>149561557
>>149561621
>>149528383
>>149561702
>I am crying like a baby I hope karma hits you
Lol

>>149561800
>>149561702
>I hope karma hits you otherwise I am going to cry like a pajeet chink baby that I am and shit on the street

>>149561813
See
>>149561669
do you even read before you post?

>>149561852
No I don't speak retarded low IQ pajeet chink language
>>149561702

lmao you are so fucking mad right now

>>149561894
>You are mad
Also him
>>149561702

yeah you seem pretty mad
malding even lol

rangeban romania

>>149561972
Lol rageban
And I am the one who's mad yeah
Fucking pussy you are talking alone you don't even reply to me retard
You are the biggest pussy in the world
If a nigga crosses streets with you, you start having a heart attack

>>149561669
my system doesnt allow me to risk my own money so i will never lose. the only thing that can stop me is promo restrictions.

>>149562108
Ok? And? Good for you I guess
Good job good luck what do you want me to say?

>>149562108
I don't even know what the fuck you are doing but ok
This guy said your system is trash who should I believe
>>149561086

>>149562172
mostly i want you to stop giving me a hard time about my silly baseball bets.
>>149562207
you should believe me because i post proofs of long term profit

>>149562609
Ok good looks.
You could just have said that from the beginning but you only said that today.
How the fuck was I supposed to know what is in your mind or what the fuck you are doing
You just wanted to start a beef for no reason.

>>149561551
>>149561563
>>149561489
See 2+ and Norway scored too.
Too bad I didn't place any bets.
I was thinking about USA and Mexico winning but idk.
I don't know why I am so fearful today. After winning so much

>>149562892
betting is like skydiving or only having 1 bullet to kill the enemy, one mistake and you lose and that loss hurts you alot until you win again.

>>149562983
Yes exactly losing hurts more than winning, even if you lose very little
When you win you feel nothing

Okay, let's all calm down and breathe. We are all trying to win here. For novice baseball bettors, there are some rules to start you out with.
>+1.5 at plus odds is the best bet in baseball.
For instance, there are 2 examples of this tonight. The Rockies are +2.5 at +100. The White Sox are +1.5 at +120. These are both good bets from a long term value perspective. White Sox are actually the 3rd best run line cover team in the league despite their terrible record.
>home underdogs
There are 13 teams so far this season that are profitable as home underdogs. That's almost half the league.
>autobet underdogs when they're coming off of a win and are underdogs again
It's a simple momentum value play.
>Rule of 10
It is statistically very difficult to win or lose 10 in a row. When a team gets to 7 wins or loses in a row, it's time to either fade them (if it's a win streak) or take them (if it's a losing streak). You should be getting good plus odds in these scenarios. If it doesn't hit, bet it again the next day. Once it gets to 10, stop betting it.

These are just a few rules to guide you towards the winning path. Renember if you bet every single underdog every single day from day 1 of the season, you will have made a least a slight profit at the end of the season, so never bet favorites and you will be good. You can go 45% and still make a profit if you're only betting dogs.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

>>149563234
>When a team gets to 7 wins or loses in a row, it's time to either fade them (if it's a win streak) or take them (if it's a losing streak). You should be getting good plus odds in these scenarios.
And allow me to clarify. The Marlins are on an 8 game win streak right now. They play the Twins tonight. The Twins are -120, so this is not a play. You would only bet it if the Twins were getting the dog price. So I'm going to see how it shakes out tonight. If Marlins win tonight and then the Twins are at a dog price tomorrow, that's an autobet.

>>149563234
>>149563309
NRFI is a good bet too

>>149562983
>>149563088
That simply means you're betting too much on a single game. Your unit system should be no more than 2% of your bankroll.

>>149563405
You are half true. Even if you bet very little money like I said the loss does a huge phycological damage. So because we are scared of reds and losses we pussy out. Then we yolo like retards on stupid games and lose. It is a mind game intended by bookies.

Money comes hard and little and losses come easy big and fast so to say

>>149563464
Wait. You're not actually sitting there watching every game you bet on, are you? That's a rookie movie. Bet it and forget it. Assess your wins/losses at the end of the day. You will definitely drive yourself crazy if you're sitting there box score watching, or God forbid actually watching the game. Lol.

I am back in my prime

>>149563505
It depends. We usually play just one game so of course you gonna watch. But yes if you have a parley like 3+ games of course you ain't watching it all. Also Europe is different than US we have like 2 games in a day not 9 like in NBA MLB. So we bet just those games in that day so of course we watch cuz they are televised too.

Might cash this

>>149563505
kwab look at this fat yank pig betting his shekels on sports he doesn't even watch, a new low

>>149563571
pussy

>>149563588
Ok I am leaving it just to prove you wrong

>>149563583
im sure you watch all the second division japanese women’s soccer you lose money on

When uncertain just play NRFI.
You said you are uncertain about Marlin Twins just play NRFI
I hope my logic works lol
This is pure gamble

what have been the least stressfull most easy money in the bag bets so far recently? for me the 3 best picks were Juve vs Man City ML City, PSG vs seattle ml psg, PSG vs inter miami ml psg.

>>149563937
BTTS Bayern Flamengo

>>149548260
Rakhimova and Pavlyuchenkova won and Vondrousova lost. Pretty good day overall. Raducanu is still an enigma to me. If I don't fade her she plays like complete shit and loses all the time. When I fade her she suddendly hits everything. Guess I shouldn't have tried it at Wimbledon but was fairly confident Vondrousova gets the job done given recent grass showings. Should have known Wimbledon would be a different story. Now Raducanu will simply lose to Sabalenka and you can't even really fade her because the odds are too lopsided.


Picks for tomorrow:

Holmgren to win a set against Machac @1.7

Marozsan to win the first set against Munar @1.85

Tauson to beat Kalinskaya @1.7

Starodubtseva to beat Samsonova @5

>>149563234
this happens less in baseball, but happens quite often in hockey and basketball. i find that when teams are playing their 1st game back home after an extended road trip, my rule of thumb is at least 2 weeks, and in different timezones (especially if an east coast team was playing on the west coast or visa versa), that first game back for the home team is going to be a low energy struggle. the home team is going to be lethargic and gassed. even if the book favors the home team to win in this situation, that is a very risky bet to make, because the players are going to be jetlagged and mentally tired. the book doesnt factor in that mental fatigue, but you are willingly taking the extra risk. you have to really watch out for these types of games because in the nhl and mlb, not sure about basketball but im going to assume its similar, the home team on that 1st game back has a below .500 record. its a dangerous game to bet on.

>>149561086
I didn’t say it’s a good system. It’s why max bets exist

>>149563234
>>Rule of 10
this one is a really good one for all sports. in practically any sport once a team starts winning 7+ games, that shouldnt be an indication of safe bet, you should be afraid that they are going to regress to the mean. when you see a team on a long winning streak playing a team on a long losing streak, you shouldnt look at that as an "easy" win, you should worried about a potential regression to the mean. at the end of the day you are gambling on a macro level of statistical distribution, 7+ wins is starting to get outside of 1 standard deviation, you would be betting at like negative odds for something that is statistically improbable.

All over USA tonight vs. Guatemala thinking 4-0 or 5-0 and 25+ shots. They already gave up 22 shots to Panama and 2 goals to Guadeloupe this tourney. Also USA has been making chances at will since Pochettino arrived. Sharps are on it too. Got Malik Tillman o2.5 shots at +200 and it's down to +140

>>149564327
Many idiots fell for this logic so much they wrote a fallacy for it.

>>149564327
If I flip a coin and it lands heads 7 times in a row do you think it changes the odds for the 8th flip? Are you one of the retards that think slot machines can be "hot" or a roulette wheel is "overdue"

>>149564551
there’s also the law of averages
>no really bro that coin flip is never going to land heads again!

>>149564701
No really the coin learns and knows its landed heads 7 times so on the 8th flip it decides to regress to the mean

>>149564716
>the coin chooses the outcome

The real argument to be made is betting likes reflect the public and if a team is on a streak lines will become increasingly skewed meaning fading them can be a value bet. It has nothing to do with probability

>>149564689
absolutely becomes overdue. thats why there are max bet limits
the world record for roulette is 32, by the way. a coin will never come up heads 50 times in a row. doesnt matter what the math says

cubs + dodgers moneyline parlay @ 2.07

>>149564701
Law of averages is a long term game not a short one in coinflips or acts of chance. It doesn't apply to sports because that implies teams never have good and bad seasons but rather spells that balance out at 50/50. Sports betting is a little different when it comes to gambler's fallacy because it's real people and not an universe-indifferent flip of a coin but any team on a winning or losing streak will have their odds adjusted by by the general public. A negative EV bet is still a negative EV bet regardless of what's happened prior.

no wimbledon picks for me this round

>>149564734
this is how it actually works. also different sports are different. 10 in a row in the NFL doesnt mean anything. in the NHL or MLB 10 in a row deserves attention. NBA is a total crapshoot because half the time teams dont care if they win.

>>149563583
Successful handicappers don't watch games. In fact, there is a good chance that you will bias yourself by watching a team lose a bet for you. It will make you apprehensive to bet on them the next time even when the data tells you that you should.

>>149564689
but this isnt strictly about the probability, its about the odds, if you flipped a coin and it landed 7 times in a row on heads, and now for the 8th flip the book was only offering you 1.70 odds for heads instead of a 1.90/1.90 split even though its still a 50/50 outcome, you would take that 1.70 odds, that dont reflect the actual probability?

>>149563782
The only problem with NRFIs is that they tend to have terrible odds. It's about to start so let's see.

>>149564807
If it comes up 49 times though the odds of it coming up the 50th time doesn't change. This is like the first lesson in a High School level statistics class

>>149564716
It's all about long term data and statistical likelihood vs the price the bookies are giving you.

Remember, you are not betting on teams, you are betting on prices.

>>149563782
>>149564899
Yea, see what I mean. The pricing was bad. You laid -175 on a nrfi for a game that had an over/under of 9, indicating that bookies expected a high scoring game.

Folks, you are betting on prices. The odds are all that matters.

>>149564972
I'd like to see someone fully commit to just blindly betting on lines that look counter intuitive. I bet it'd be massively profitable

>>149564972
Too bad I lost

>>149564983
I actually might run that and post it here. I'm coming into a lot of money in a couple weeks. $3k pool with $100 per a bet on only lines that dont make sense given the statistics. I'll log it.

>>149565015
I know. It was a terrible value bet. But you dropped ~$11,500 on a random ass bet so I guess you got money to burn.

>>149565046
Why it was bad value?

>>149565021
Define "lines that don't make sense"?

Just watch and see they ain't scoring anymore. It will be under game

>>149564907
i know the math, remember we are gambling. if you could erase the edge the game wouldnt be offered. for me its a matter of perspective. if i see a roulette table on a 22 streak, im dropping a couple thousand against it going another 11 breaking the world record. if i lose sobeit. theres no accounting for horrific luck

>>149565021
are you the guy that bets wnba player props because the prices vary wildly between books?

Ah now they draw in 2nd fucking whores.
Miami is ass I hope they lose

>>149565053
Well for one, the over/under was 9 which indicated that the bookies were expecting a higher scoring game and you laid about 28 cents to the dollar (in American odds this would be shown as -128). My rule of thumb for odds in baseball is never take anything over -120. I rarely take anything over -110 actually.

ive made a huge mistake

>>149565058
A good example was yesterday's match between Bernard Tomic who's a big name and still mildly successfully ~200 ranked player vs. A literal random ~1000 ranked guy who's won one of his last 8 matches and loses to even worse ranked players. It was basically even odds from the start which if you are any normal person you'd pick Tomic but obviously the book knew something so the play was the nobody who eventually won easily. Games where the line doesn't match Common sense

>>149564362
Usa already up 1. I hope you guys grabbed something before it got buried in the gay math argument that was solved 500 years ago

>>149565261
Okay, yes I see what you're saying. The thing is, those lines are pretty rare. Obviously the bookies know about certain injuries that the public is unaware of. It's probably a good strategy but how often do those lines pop up?

>>149565326
It's more common than you think. Especially if you use a book with more obscure basketball, soccer and tennis games

>>149564362
Lel 2 goals and Tillman o2.5 at +200 hit in 15 mins

>>149564689
>If I flip a coin and it lands heads 7 times in a row do you think it changes the odds for the 8th flip?
Are you getting a better price on the 8th flip? That's what you're leaving out. You're arguing as though every game has even odds for the same outcome every time.

If the 7th flip was +150 for heads, then the 8th flip was -150 for heads, you would be getting the better value taking tails on the 8th flip, along with the longterm statistical trend of a coin not hitting heads 8 times in a row. The odds themselves do change actually, but more importantly the price changes. You can't do a 1:1 transposing of coin flips:sports betting. They're two completely different things.

>>149565261
I didn't follow the match but something you have to keep in mind is that someone like Tomic is known to tank matches in smaller, irrelevant tournaments. He spent the last 2 months in Europe playing on clay and then grass. Won his first main tour matches in years in Mallorca. Highly doubt he had any real motivation to perform in a pretty meaningless challenger event. Bigun has been playing on US hard courts all year. Surface change + big timezone change + Tomic's well known tendency to tank explains the line. Rank in tennis generally doesn't mean that much. First thing I would tell anybody when it comes to tennis is to not pay much attention to ranks unless you think it is an important factor. For example someone has to win a match or two to secure a certain rank that guarantees them seeding or main draw entry in an event.

>>149565713
I mean you can justify it but its obvious a square better is going to take Tomic 100% of the time. Its why I think it'd be an interesting strategy to fade obvious square bets. Tomic isn't going to be -110 against a shitty player if they aren't sure he's going to lose.

>>149565254
KWAB

>>149565254
Rip bro

>>149565770
I get that, yes. I've had similar thoughts before. Sometimes I see lines that make "no sense" to me at first glance and think to myself I would take the worse player if I could get slightly better odds for him but the fact that these odds are even so close to begin with probably tricks people into just betting the obvious rank/seeding favourite. I usually love fading Ruud in the first or second round of Wimbledon every year because he's always such a heavy favourite due to his rank and results on the other surfaces and then he just goes out because he doesn't know how to play on grass. Too bad he is injured this year so he wasn't even in the draw.

>Bet on Misiorowski for the 1st time
>Pure mizery

Of course

>>149565161
Well it seems it was a low scoring game. 3 fucking points. Yea good job fucking Marlins and Twins scoring only 3 point more than half a game but scoring them in first innings fuck you. 9 points spread my ass.
MLB is fucking ass, there is no difference from playing slots or roulette

>>149565818
>>149565829
its ok. mexico will save me

>>149566466
Imagine they draw lol

>>149566432
Bro. I gave you the under here>>149560633

The nrfi was still a bad bet because of the pricing. Nrfi is just not a good bet in general. For future reference here are the nrfi records https://stats.sportschatplace.com/nrfi

>>149566632
impossible. mexico is good at soccer

>>149566693
Yeah instead of nrfi under was the better bet. Now it came in my mind you are right. Also twins rarely have nrfi games apparently. Should have told me earlier

>>149566693
Also if they NRFI the games are usually low scoring so it made sense yeah. You are good at this

>>149550979
>>149558292
i should've put a kidney on it tho :/

phew thought the cubs were done when they were down 3-0 but their bats came alive to save the parlay. should have bet on the comeback.

>>149370059
kek

>>149563234
>For instance, there are 2 examples of this tonight. The Rockies are +2.5 at +100. The White Sox are +1.5 at +120. These are both good bets from a long term value perspective. White Sox are actually the 3rd best run line cover team in the league despite their terrible record.
Told you guys. Plus run line at plus money = best bet in baseball

>>149571079
chicken dinner

>>149571701
Had to sweat that Mookie sac fly to tie it. Almost went out

Marozsan probably the worst bet of this year's Wimbledon. Atrocious display. Thought Munar was in a letdown spot given his overpeformances but if he keeps this up he might cause another upset.

Anyone use a cryptocasino?

I have no clue why Holmgren is such a heavy underdog against everyone but I'll keep betting him as long as he's winning. Was an @6 underdog against Machac and just won the first set. If he wins the whole match I might have to go with him to beat De Minaur if the odds are ridiculously lopsided again.

>MIN @ MIA u8
>Yankees ML
>KC @ SEA u7.5
>NY Liberty -10.5

>>149566432
Do you like the over for the Twins today? What else do you like?

anyone here use MGM?
daily promos are broken and I want to see if its only me

>>149579291
They are working for me. Just did a Swing For the Fences and won 20% MLB odds boost.

>>149579433
are they doing the richochet drop this week?

>>149578014
What you think about Jays Yankees NRFI? Is the spread to high for it?
I don't trust Yankees they are ass

Week 1 winners
Eagles
Chargers
Commies
Bengals
Jest
Cardinals
Bucs
Panthers
Patriots
Colts
Broncos
9ers
Loins
Rasm
Bills
Da bears

>>149580776
>colts
>bears

>>149580929
Yes Colts beat the dolphins and da bears beat jj McCarthy

>>149580687
Yankees are actually a good YRFI team and Bassit has a tendency to get hit in early innings. The price is -125 which would be out of my personal price range. Can I ask why you are so hung up on NRFIs? Are you just being impatient? Having high time preference is not good for long term value betting.

You would be better off taking Yankees ML at -120, or Yankees -1.5 at +125. You have to wait a little longer to cash your bet, but it's much better value.

>>149580687
Jay's are surging right now

>martigale dont pass/come
>hard 6
>repeat
$0.50 min bet for craps is insane and i will never understand why online casinos offer it.

>>149581210
>>149581292
Yea lol. Yankees are ass bro. I would rather play the Jays
Why you think Yankees gonna win

Fuck it all in on Jays ml. Fuck Yankees they are ass and I hate them

>>149577200
Holmgren really did end up winning the match 3-2. Expected him to win after that first set. Absurd odds even for a set win. Starting to wonder if people are going to catch up on Holmgren's current level on grass being way better than the current odds indicate. Been betting him since qualififiers where he has hugely underrated as well due to some shitty results on clay. If his odds against De Minaur end up looking anything like they did against Machac, which I assume they will, then I will immediately take Holmgren to win a set and to win the match. My only fear is that he's starting to run out of energy after another long match but he's in the best form of his life right now so I'll keep going with him until he actually loses as long as the odds are so high.

>>149581535
Clark Schmidt is in better form than Bassit. Yankees have only been swept once this season. Yankees are 10-3 in getaway games this season.

>>149581742
i dont pay attention to tennis except for your posts but i have a feeling the holmgren ride is over. win a set maybe but not the match

>>149581873
We will see. I got my money on Jays good luck

>>149581926
You're probably right. The more I think about it the more I am under the impression that he's starting to run out of steam. Closing out that match against Machac must have taken a toll on him already. Lots of hours spent on court so far. One of De Minaur's biggest strengths is his stamina and court coverage. But I also think De Minaur's play has been pretty shaky. A set win should be a pretty good bet and I won't be able to resist a sprinkle on the Holmgren ML if the odds are any higher than @6 which they should be. Think the odds should be up pretty soon. I will immediately lock it in because I expect the odds to drop. I'll take a longer while to consider for other stuff tomorrow. Lots of options I'm considering aside from Holmgren.

>>149582093
lines are starting to post. seeing holmgren to win as high as +640. win a set at -115

>>149582093
I don't know anything about tennis but because woman's football just made me some easy money and I will bet on your bets. Holmgren to win a set 1.91 and Holmgren ML 7@

jarry @2.82 vs. fonseca, thoughts?

>>149563234
>>149571079
Well, what do you know? Rockies hit the plus run line at plus odds again today.

>>149582205
>>149582749
I've locked in Holmgren to win a set @1.85 and a sprinkle ton Holmgren ML @7 too. Watch him play a close first set and then run out of energy for the rest of the match for an underwhelming 3-0 loss now. Posting other picks in another 30 minutes or so. Still need to make some final decisions.

>>149584180
Don't like it that much. Liking Fonseca's grass play more and more despite the lack of experience from the little I have seen so far. Admittedly I haven't paid much attention to Jarry lately but think he got a bit lucky with his first 2 rounds against an injured Rune and a Tien who has basically never done anything on grass. Fonseca is definitely still prone to upsets but don't think this is the right spot to fade him. Another thing to consider is that we're starting to reach the point where the courts are worn down by all the play and they're getting slower. Especially the bigger show courts. They're scheduled to play on court No. 2 which is fairly big and slower than the outer courts. This probably hurts Jarry as well since his main weapon is his big serve. Realistically I expect a 3-1 win for Fonseca with some decently close scorelines in the sets. Probably 2 tiebreaks or maybe even 3? If you're looking for an upset in a similar odds range I like Borges to beat Khachanov much more. Think Khachanov has looked atrocious in the previous round against Mochizuki and is lucky to have even won the match. Should have gone down 2-0 if Mochizuki hadn't choked under the pressure in the tiebreak.

>>149584682
i don't trust fonseca to make a deep run at a slam yet, but i wasn't sure about jarry being the one to stop it
thanks for the detailed answer

>>149564087
2 wins and 2 losses. Holmgren and Tauson delivered. Marozsan and Starodubtseva were atrocious. Don't feel much about Starodubtseva. Probably shouldn't have bothered on grass. Marozsan is starting to piss me off. He's one of those players who always shits the bed when I pick him. Might start fading him more regularly. Overall still did ok for the day thanks to Holmgren and Tauson.

Picks for tomorrow:

Borges to beat Khachanov @3.2

Struff to win a set against Alcaraz @2.5

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Osaka @3

Bucsa to beat Sierra @1.7

Kartal to win the first set against Parry @1.6


>>149584807
No problem. As I said I haven't actually paid much attention to Jarry lately. Maybe I'm missing something about his play but I just don't have the impression this is the right time to fade Fonseca even if I get your idea. Maybe just go for it anyway if you noticed something about Jarry. Would feel bad if I talked you out of a 2.8 winner.

>Tigers ML started one slip
>Yankees/Blue Jays under started another

I know not to go near the Yankees for any reason and I did it anyway. The Tigers and the no-name pitcher was just pure retardedness on my part. Oh well.

the home underdog won 4 games today.

Yay my bjs

damn why was i foolish enough to believe some career minor leaguer would somehow beat the nationals. bro gave up 5 runs before he even got 3 outs.

KuPS first place in Finnish League (won few days ago 6-2 against mid table team) playing away against Oulu last team in league, 2.00 odds on them winning, 4.00 odds on them leading at halftime, winning and over 2.5 goals total

Take this with caution, because of these cunts >>149478507 that played 0-0

Sweden women to beat Denmark @1.76
Sweden already beat them twice this year last match ended 6-1 for Sweden.
If this was male football odds would be around @1.40

Love betting on Kartal. Was down 4-1 in the first set and mentally wrote off the first set as a loss already. Starts raising the level and wins 5 games in a row to win the set 6-4. Also up by a big amount in the second set. The match next round against Pavlyuchenkova will be interesting. Wish they didn't face each other because I wanted to keep betting on both of them. Especially Pavlyuchenkova who has been consistently outperforming the odds match after match on grass so far. Predict Kartal to be the slight underdog. If the odds are too wide I might just take Kartal to win.

>>149595025
>>149595025
>>149595025

>>149585088
>Bucsa to beat Sierra @1.7
Only this whore lost and she is the lowest odds for me. I was winning $140

>>149596163
You put them all in a parlay? They're supposed to be individual bets. But yes, Bucsa was complete shit. Only bet for today I regret.

>>149597663
I used to bet on tennis but too many underdog wins and the way they throw games made me give it up. I just did that parlay cuz I saw your post I never bet on Tennis. Would have been a good one without that lowest odd choke.

>>149597737
Yeah, it's often the lower odds that screw you over. Infuriating bullshit. Still up for the day thanks to Pavlyuchenkova and Struff. Borges should have also won. Ugly choke by him. 3 out of 5 isn't too bad with these odds but it should have been 4.

>>149597869
Damn Borges lost too he was up good. Why is this tournament even BO5

>>149597909
At the 4 slams the men play bo5 matches. Women play bo3 at everything.

>>149597999
Do you also bet on games? I used to do that a lot but it burns your balance too quick if you lose 3-4 times in a row

>>149598061
No. I only stick to full matches and sets. I used to try correct match scores and some other stuff here and there but I've reduced it to simple MLs and set wins.