Thread 149894018

racetrack cans edition

got whittaker with a rebuilt jaw this week ez and du plessis to fraud check khamzat the 16th. think canelo loses too.

inb4 gypsy-posting about jews, penises, and how much he seethes about americans

>>149892952
Llamas Ruiz really did end up winning 2-0. Wasn't even close. Bookies knew something was up.

>>149894516
yup, i was thinking about going for majchrzak but the odds were too suspicious

mets +0 after 5 innings @ 1.55
yankees vs blue jays over 7.5 runs @ 1.55

>>149895494
your playing a dangerous game

Interesting plus odds for Rakhimova to beat Kalinskaya in Washington. Don't think Kalinskaya has played a good match in months.

probably another betless day for me, my confidence is shook. shook!

there's no way venus williams will lose to a zoomer right????

>>149900548
serena lost to raducanu if that's any indication

>>149900548
You're joking but the odds are so high I wouldn't even consider Williams to win a set that ridiculous of a bet if you have some spare change burning a hole into your pocket. Stearns has been pretty bad lately. Obviously wouldn't expect anything serious from Williams at the age of 45 with no practice but on the other hand a sprinkle to win the first set @8 doesn't seem that ridiculously dumb if she can beat someone like Kudermetova and win a set against Zheng at the age of 43.

Feel free to laugh at this post once she has lost 6-2 6-1.

>>149894018 (OP)
Nice peaks

>>149894018 (OP)
I'd bury my cock in those fucking titties.

would've been kino

bet365 is doing a $10 safety net on 2 leg MLB sgp. you can parlay no runs in the top and no runs in the bottom of 1st to get the same odds as NRFI straight

is romania here? what do you think of this fcsb match?

>>149904965
They look like the alpha dog. 100% they qualify at home, here maybe try to rebacking them to score @1.50 , if you already have the win...
Say ml @1.7 for 300
To score @1.33 - 1000

mgm lowered its minimum stake from 0.50 to 0.10 like everyone else. odd they would make a change that only benefits stingy casuals.
also now allowing casino bonus to be played through on craps (20%) craps has a dont lose rate of 98.6% so this is a significant concession.
should keep them in mind when odds shopping, might could be desperate and offer some extra nice values

Isn't Cali vs Bahia DNB @1.80 free money or am i missing something

>>149904877
i believe they do that every saturday for mlb games, at least they have been doing it for most saturdays so far.

tigers pirates under 8.5 @ 1.76

UFC Abu Dhabi Saturday 7/26

Fun card. Early start time which is great.

>Blackshear -310 vs Grant
Parlay piece. I'm very high on Blackshear, one of the best grapplers in the division. I like him to sub Grant in the first or second

>Buchecha -290 vs Buday
Buday is terrible, doesn't belong in the UFC IMO. Buchecha making his debut, multiple time world BJJ champ. Not sure about his striking but don't think it will matter. Buday is trash, gets taken down and subbed quick.

>Leal by KO
No line yet, should be around -150. Salikhov is listed at 41 years old and might be closer to 50. Doesn't have the speed or durability to hang with Leal, who is 90% steroid and 10% human.

>Almabaev -115 vs Ochoa
Grappler vs striker, give me the grappler. Ochoa wants a war on the feet, Almabaev won't let him fight that way.

>Leal vs Salikhov FDNGD -220
This will be -500 by fight day. Bet it now while you can. IMO there's a 85% chance this finishes inside distance and odds imply closer to 70%

>Guskov +150 vs Krylov
Love Guskov here. Good power and Krylov's chin is questionable. Really quick turnaround for Krylov after being heemed out cold vs Reyes in April.

>Yan -400 vs McGhee
Another parlay piece. Yan wins easily unless he gets DQ'd or injured. McGhee taking too big a step up. This is either a Yan TKO or a 30-26 type win. McGhee's only chance is an early finish...Yan takes a boxing approach and usually starts a little slow while figuring out distance and timing.

1/2

>>149910462

>Shara Bullet by KO -145 vs Barriault
MAB has no chin left. He'll get heemed stiff, most likely 1st or 2nd round. Shara wins a bonus with a highlight finish.

>Said +110 vs Bryce
Bryce had questionable durability at 145, I don't see him being able to take much damage at 135. Said also has the best guillotine in UFC. I see Said doing damage and either finishing Bryce via strikes, or snatching his neck when Bryce panic shoots for a sub win. Bryce should not be favored over anyone with a pulse.

>RDR +120 vs Whittaker
I've been betting against Whittaker since his first Izzy fight. He beats one-dimensional strikers (except Izzy) and loses to grapplers, losing badly when the grapplers are bigger and stronger than him. DDP and Khamzat destroyed him, I think RDR does the same and wins via sub inside 2 rounds. RDR is a massive middleweight with super slick grappling and BJJ. Whittaker wins a pure standup fight, I just don't see RDR allowing that. If you want to take Whittaker, take him by KO.

2/2

>>149901805
Called it. Williams really did win the first set 6-3. Stearns is beyond atrocious right now. Insane odds.

>>149910887
1.05 odd fav. losing to 11.00 retiree

didn't see that coming

Cocciaretto to beat Noskova @3 looks interesting.

biggest i've seen (it lost)

another (won)

horse scratched, i tailed when it was 2.50

>>149901805
nicht schlecht

Medvedev?
Looking for something to boost my bankroll

>>149916649
i'm not an atp watcher but from what i hear medvedev really shit the bed at wimbledon

also opelka is like 6'9 or something, height isn't everything but he might ass rape meddy.

Anyone betting on women's football?
Germany vs Spain Euro semi-final
Germany is the underdog @5.60 despite H2H showing 3 wins for Germany, 2 draws and 0 wins for Spain.

but med is 4-2 against opelka and taking meds lack of caring this year into account i dunno. opelka was injured earlier too, i think.

probably going to avoid medv
not worth the sweat
I like free money and sure things

>>149916807
navarro to beat sakkari
rybakina to beat mboko (could be iffy)

i like these odds for wild
agut is 37 and not good on clay

>>149916649
Medvedev has looked absolutely terrible on every surface lately. Very unmotivated play by him at times. Hard court is by far his favourite surface so it makes sense to expect more from him here but his serve has completely degraded over the past year or so. Against a servebot player like Opelka that can be dangerous. Opelka has experience facing Medvedev too so he shouldn't really be caught off by his weird playstyle.

If you want something in a similar odds range I think Lehecka to beat Svajda is a better pick. Or even Rublev to beat Tien.

me? feel wrong if i don't put my money where my mouth is

>>149916831
I agree with Navarro and would also add Tauson over Dolehide. But would stay away from Rybakina actually. I even think Mboko's odds look almost tempting enough for an upset if they were a little higher.

>>149916838
I agree but it's hard to trust someone as inconsistent as Seyboth Wild for any given match. If his forehand isn't shanking everything I think he should win.

>>149916930
i just don't think mboko can beat rybakina, even if rybakina is half assing it but i also wouldn't be shocked if mboko somehow wins.

>>149916975
I'm starting to think Rybakina isn't that good on hard courts anymore due to her weird movement. On clay she has more time getting the balls and on grass the rallies actually slow down over time too if the point gets started and lots of players struggle with the lower bounce. The serve really isn't that reliable anymore either. Realistically I still expect her to win but I think Mboko will at least put up a fight.

>>149917284
i wouldn't be surprised if there's a tiebreak or it goes 3 sets but in the end rybakinas experience wins it
will be sad if i lose the bet but i like mboko so idm if she wins

i think i have a pretty good tennis record, it's the horses that fuck me in the ass.

took btts+O2.5 in Brann-Salzburg @ 2.0

>>149917332
> the horses that fuck me in the ass.
sounds painful

Opelka immediately broke Medvedev in his first service game. His serve really is that weak nowadays.

medvedev live bet @1.6 was too tempting

>>149918558
I would have at least waited for him to lose the first set but I think he's going to lose anyway based on these first few games.

Lost $5 betting on horses last night. I was on a roll at the end though.

Crazy how Opelka stopped doing anything in return games after the first set. Still think somebody with a more fleshed out retun game than Opelka is going to give Medvedev trouble. This isn't convincing at all. Especially his second serve looks very exploitable and is prone to double faults.

2/2
thinking about pushing my luck with navarro to close out the day

Hearts 7-0 vs. Dumbarton

>>149915868
Cocciaretto got destroyed by the way. Good reminder to not really trust her to do much on hard courts.

Gotta chuck on Wawrinka after Venus's performance last night right?

>>149921132
Not really comparable. Wawrinka is actually still decent and plays regularly. Can still hang with most of the Challenger players on tour and the odds tend to reflect that. Definitely wouldn't rule out a Wawrinka win here but don't think there's any real value even ignoring the fact that they're already playing.

>>149916745
Fuck's sake.
>bet on a draw
>cashed out at half time and bet on Spain because it was 15 attempts from Spain and 1 post and 0 for Germany
>second half Spain choke
Women are so fucking shit. These fucking whores shouldn't get paid anything.

>>149921659
I'm just thinking of the cosmic energy of the world.

>>149921789
I had Germany +1 1H and Germany to Qualify and I'm fucking owning your stats fag ass right now

>>149922035
So you were too pussy to bet on the 90 mins result before the game? I had the right pick. But I didn't expect "professional" women to be so fucking shit, though.

>>149922120
The line was weird to me +1.5 FT was basically the same odds as +1 HT so it seemed like way more value.

>>149919699
Wanted to still take a break but fuck it, taking Navarro @1.5 too. Let's all watch Sakkari play her best tennis in years now.

I know after Washington Sakkari will go on a big losing streak and I will be too afraid to fade her every single match because of this Navarro match.

the bills are favored to win every game this season so the storyline is going to be how many can they win before kwabbing and you can expect at least 7 straight out of them

>>149923161
Laughable showing. Navarro couldn't produce a single break point in the second set and basically didn't even try in the tiebreak. I swear I knew this would happen the moment I went for it. I'm a dumbass. I also know Sakkari won't play a match like this for a good while. But when I decide to fade her again she will remember how to play like this again. Always the same shit with these players.

Rybakina will effortlessly beat Mboko 6-2 6-2 by the way.

sigh...

>get the early payout
>team blows the huge lead after the early payout
phew

>>149924627
the bills also have one of the easiest schedules of the season. vegas is offering 1.40 odds for the bills to win 11 games, 2.00 odds for the patriots to win 9 games this season, 1.95 odds for the fins to win 8 games, and the jets are complete trash. there is no way the bills dont go at least 5-1 against them, and those 5 wins are already more wins than the jets will get all season. then they get to play teams like the browns, panthers, and saints, that should be 3 more easy wins. 8 easy wins for them right there, that is already more wins than dolphins and jets get all season. i dont see any possible way the bills manage to lose their division. why should i not just smash like $1000 on them to win their division and get a 40% return in 5 months. yea its not great odds, but even in a worse case scenario where josh allen gets like a season ending injury week 1 and mitch trubisky is their starter for an extended period of time, the other teams are just so bad, it would be an accomplishment for them to just finish .500 nevermind contending with the bills. tell me how the bills dont finish first in their division, why am i getting 1.38 odds for this, how is the bills winning the division not close to like 1.20 or so.

>>149925331
vegas seems to think the patriots are on a cusp of a turn around here, and could be this years commanders style team, going from a 4 win team in the cellar of the division to a "contender" overnight. the patriots have one of the easiest schedule of the season, even easier than the bills. they only have like 5 games this season against teams that finished above .500 last year. and they dont play the chiefs or eagles like the bills do. the bills have a tough 4 weeks in the middle of the season where they have to play the buccaneers, texans, steelers, and bengals. the patriots dont have a part of their schedule like that where they will be tested multiple weeks against hungry teams vying for playoff spots. most of the teams they are playing were 4-6 win teams last season. if the patriots new signings manage to play well together, they can easily go on a roll. but even when the commanders did it, they didnt make it to the level of a super bowl contender, in the eagles. even if the patriots did it here, i think they end up in the same sort of situation as the commanders, a wild card team not a division winner. they definitely have spent this offseason, improved in several key positions, but josh allen is just too good.

>>149925639
Commanders are regressing hard this year so fade them and look at pats panthers to make jumps. Fuck the jags

Been putting a lot of bets on Ponce. Its very obvious they will win. I will get paid out

>>149925984
I have +3.5 and moneylines. It will all hit

>>149925984
>>149925997
They are up 1 point rn. I got the Jewish hivemind who sent me the dox that said they'd win.

>>149925984
>>149925997
>>149926121
They won by 5 points lmao. The Jewish hivemind told me and it hit.

I know someone on twitter keeps winning every single fucking time this nigga bets on anything and still wins I feel like a cuck watching it

>>149910497
Do not fucking bet on a guy coming off of a win against a fraudulent prospect against a top 5 established middleweight staple. RDR is levels below Whittaker when it comes to skill level.

Got 2/3 praying these niggas hit the under

>>149926334
Watching the worst version of The Shining praying it hits.

>>149926358
I'm 15 mins in and there's 45 different people in this isolated hotel

>>149925984
>>149925997
They covered btw. They won the moneyline btw

>>149926334
Lol there's like 0 chance I don't hit this already. Nobody has scored and Atlanta is domating.

This shit will 100% be ass. One of the reasons the original shining ruled is because the woman was so hot and unique. She had epic outfits. This version is some ugly blonde bitch I want to beat with a shovel

Based Joy Taylor enjoyer

oh my lucky stars. fucking disastrous 3-4 days. yolo'd the rest of my balance on this.

Made about $300 on Atlanta Dream/Freseros de Iraputo basketball. If things go good and we hit the under its $600. Then some time tomorrow or Friday I will get a $12k deposit. Going to be epic sauce for me personally

>>149926316
I’ll bet how I want to bet. Whittaker struggles with larger, stronger grapplers.

>>149926684
It’s shameful how much makeup and cleavage they had to use to make this bitch look attractive lol. No thanks!

>>149926906
Ok nigger, show slip and I'll match it with a bet on Whittaker

portugalanon, does braga beat the bulgarian farmers tomorrow, or are they playing the b team?

todays tenny multi
gotta get back on that horse. heh.
kristina has dropped to 2.38 tho

>>149926334
>>149926459
you bet on womens basketball so you got what you deserved but I have a feeling the wnba is going to get rocked by a sports betting scandal in the next year or 2. these women have made it clear they believe they are entitled to more money and everyone knows women dont have any sense of ethics so its only a matter of time before someone slips up.
I am increasingly convinced that markets are being rigged to encourage cashouts. too often seeing games with these wild reversals. if its not intentional they suck even more than i thought and theres no predicting suck so you might as well play craps

>>149927953
shucks. try again tomorrow!

Siniakova?

>>149932111
she's in my other multi but i only chose her because i like her more than noskova

>>149929856
I don't think it's that deep. It happens across leagues. There's something with women where all of a sudden there are massive runs. I think it's something to do with their temperament.

blue jays @ 2.10
two teams on opposite form, tigers one of the worst batting teams in the major leagues in the month of july, blue jays coming off a 2-1 series win over the yankees where they put a lot of balls into play to move into top spot in the division. books havent given much respect to the blue jays at all this season. they are one of two teams in the bigs with a winning record both at home and on the road as the books underdog.

took btts+O2.5 in hibernian-midtjylland

>>149934728
jays get no respect when they keep kwabbing teams

>>149934728
who is on the mound for toronto?

I like losing money.

>>149935002
Correction: I like winning small amounts of money on inconsequential wagers.

My horse lost today.

Just betting on line movements is literally free money. I have like 20 more of these out too. Feel like if that's my only bet pattern they're going to ban me before I make any real money though (I'm sure they look for such types of betting patterns and don't even care if you win them)

damn should have gone all in on the blue jays

>>149940144
12% movement in the last hour in favor of Fortaleza. This is basically free money at +250. Colombia is rigged af (as fuck) too

>>149940150
The Jays are a real wagon right now.

>"Small slate tonight and after the Phillies ripped my heart out last night I don't feel like betting MLB today"
>Me looking at everything but my Blue Jays ML getting absolutely destroyed

First instinct is always right.

in the first half of the patriots season, they will play 7 games against teams that finished below .500 last season, 1 game against the bills, and 1 game against the steelers, who both finished above .500 last season.

the pats should be able to beat the raiders and falcons.
they should also beat the steelers. the steelers won 10 games last season, but the book is giving 2.00 odds for them win over 8.5 games, so a bit of regression. rodgers is an old man hes beyond washed by now.
carolina, new orleans, tennessee, and cleveland are all dumpster fires

now the game against miami will be a bit of a test. they havent beat the dolphins in miami since the tom brady era. i know the dolphins have all sorts of drama with tyreek hill, but when tua is healthy he is decent quarterback. the dolphins beat the pats both times last season, and tua threw 4 tds in the 1 game he wasnt hurt against them. this game is early enough in the season i dont think tua will be hurt by then.

through 9 weeks, a loss to the bills and a loss to the dolphins, im going to assume they play a bad game somewhere and lose. they could potentially be looking at a 6-3 start, possibly even 7-2.

>>149941585
the first half of the bills season is quite a bit harder than the patriots. the bills have to play the chiefs and ravens in that time, both games at home. lets assume the bills lose one of those games, they also play 1 bad game somewhere and lose. they also have a bye week in the first half of the season. after 9 weeks the bills could potentially be 6-2, while the pats are 6-3/7-2.

this is the situation im worried about for betting on the bills to win the division right now. because if this did happen, the odds for the bills to win the division would have moved and i would have been better off waiting. now i dont believe the patriots are in any way good enough to compete against the bills for a division title, and the second half of the patriots schedule is much harder. they might only win like 3 games out of their last 8. which would potentially put them at 9 wins when vegas is offer 2.00 odds on over 8.5 wins, so to me at least, this situation seems plausible. the pats schedule is just so weak the bills wont be able to create any separation for a while, unless the pats just totally flop. you just know they are going to be sucking vrabels dick off the entire season. the narratives and headlines practically write themselves, old team legend returns and guides a struggling 4 win team right to the playoffs. maybe im just rating drake maye too highly. i dont know.

todays tenny multi loser
waiting for montreal desu

i should stick to singles but a multi win is very exciting

predicting the future can be quite difficult

>>149941806
udvardy 2.75 might actually be worth doing, she beat jones a week and a halfish ago. she can do it again!

shouldn't these odds be closer?

only one HR in July. free money

>make mistake
>fix mistake

Sakkari didn't even wait for the next tournament to go back to choking and playing like shit. Threw a 5-2 lead in the second set of the very next match.

>>149934728
Good one bro I like the jays all season. Dark horse WS contender I think.

mike trout currently at 999 career rbis. mike trout 1+ rbi @ 2.60 might be something to consider. today might be a tough game for the angels against bryan woo, but i expect him to get 1000 in front of the home crowd by the end of the series against the mariners.

>>149940144
Lmao this shit did not go good at all. The good news is I'm back to using models instead of meta shit.

This is actually a completely unique approach that uses Kalman filters and a backpropagation algorithm to correct lucky games in the past. Its pretty frigging state of the art. For proof see a plot of WNBA estimated Offensive abilities over the season. I even backtested it and it has smaller error than anything I used before (Though its obviously not perfect because basketball is really fucking high variance and annoying and end game dynamics ruin predictions with fouling and chucking and shit)

To hold me accountable here are my predictions for WNBA:

Phoenix Mercury vs. Liberty +6 and moneyline is value (84-81 predicted)

Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces is a big skip I have it 82-74 and Vegas has Lynx -9.5 with O/U 163. Maybe some value in the under

Golden State Valkyries skip (Vegas has it Dallas +4 with an O/U of 162 and I have it Valkyries 80-84).

Actually when I started posting I'd expect more picks but hammer the Mercury. If anything it shows my model mirrors Vegas.

>>149953919
Caveat I guess but I forgot to log both team's last 2 games and Phoenix played terribly but usually performance is pretty sticky so it wouldn't make a huge difference

>>149953520
some additional info to take with salt. ESPN was boosting 1+ rbi this morning but dropped it. suggests lots of money came in on 1+ RBI and value on u0.5 rbi for books that offer it.
but i like him to get it tonight. hes the type to pay attention to that stuff and tru to get it over with quick so its not a big deal.

>>149953919
i need you to be wrong about the mercury liberty score

>>149953987
It could be realistically my model doesn't account for late game fouling its just assuming those are the target scores. Its why I'm hesistant about using it for O/U. Since its a close game I'd put the real O/U around what you have assuming 2-3 fouls at the end

>>149953919
Another reason this is interesting is with the Defensive Ratings you can see Phoenix also eclipse New York after a season of being far inferior. It shows how the books can lag behind sometimes because sometimes trends are hidden or hard to follow.

Now that I'm posting like this I'm sure Phoenix will end up getting pummeled. It is how these things work.

god damned white sox

>>149953919
Betas bet on other people. Real sigmas bet on themselves

okay okay i'll give tenny multis a break and go back to singles

Dallas to upset the Valkyries in wnba
Li yueru to score 10+

>>149954120
>>149953919
I'd like to announce my retirement from gambling. Thanks bye.

>>149954843
singles it is

Fritz is a Vegas agent.

>>149958412
there's a reason he's called shitz

$200 deposit update
real hit and miss
was below $100 several times
constantly between $175-200
sometimes above $200
currently at $231.50

These AFL boys are terrible, can't catch or kick for shit.

bucsa 1.44 to beat hon
osuigwe 2.50 to beat yuan

akugue 1.40 to beat park (not parks)

don't know about aiava 3.25 to beat zhang

brace 3.10 to beat jeanjean
thems my montreal picks

akugue is horb not montreal tho
/ramble

Do any of you make a stable 50-100 bucks a week in a span of months?

Apparently Raducanu retired due to a headache from her doubles match yesterday. Given Kalinskaya's play so far this tournament this seems like a good time to fade Raducanu. Kalinskaya to win @2.35 looks almost too good but I have to go for it. Odds will likely drop further over the course of the day.

>>149960397
yes but its all promo arbitage and casino promos

>>149946188
here we go again

>>149960076
Zhao to beat Jacquemot @4.5 looks interesting I think.

>>149962267
i'm not seeing it, just have a solid 1.40 or something with a stake high enough to cover it should it lose

>>149961082
seems like a case of pulling out of doubles to be ready for singles

>>149959743
osuigwe 2.50 is now 3.80. welp.

Boca Juniors are away tomorrow against Huracan in the argentine league
Boca are currently on a long winless streak. If you're feeling cheeky, bet on their win. Safest result is a draw or Huracan W.

>>149962540
Don't even disagree. There's a good chance you're right. You have to state an official reason for retirement so it could just be general exhaustion and focusing on singles rather than a "headache" but I still think these odds are a bit too wide anyway. Coupled with a retirement I think this is a good spot to fade her.

won another horsey so i put more on osuigwe. yolo.

I am going to bankrupt myself for Fashionably Fab.

>>149962764
not gonna bet on it but i'll hypothetically choose veery

>>149962764
>>149962816
1/3 "experts" support my bad financial decisions.

>>149962835
i don't listen to the experts anymore if i did i wouldn't've chosen >>149926751
besides i'm just hypotheticallying so my choice has no monies riding on it

>>149962866
>i don't listen to the experts anymore
Same. I do like reading handicaps and programs to tickle my autism though.

ascot r4 in 1 minute hypothetically i'd pick aalto 7.50 but i shan't risk my balance this was a good day

>>149962997
didn't even place. hypotheticals ftw.

anyone think valerenga can score against bodo?

yankees @ 2.15

the yankees need this game badly. 5.5 games back from the blue jays now. the yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 at home, since 2020 they are 14-5 in games after losing at home by 5 or more runs. yankees crush left handed pitching. lead the bigs with .836 ops against southpaws, judge is hitting .365 with a 1.142 ops against southpaws, and stanton boasts a .905 ops vs southpaws. phillies 4-8 on the road in their past 12. although ranger suarez has an impressive era, he is actually below league average in hard hit ball rate. could be playing with a bit of fire here against a team that feasts on southpaws.

>>149966034
I would bet against the yankees every game from here on out. Theres something really wrong with them and I dont think the markets have noticed yet. Might have started when my red sox swept them.

>>149910497
>He beats one-dimensional strikers (except Izzy) and loses to grapplers,
His entire career is built on dusting boogeyman grapplers like Jacare and Romero

>>149962764
>>149962835
I'm locked in and ready to lose.

>>149968045
Finished 3rd. Beautiful last spurt. I can't be mad. If only she had a little extra power.

4 guys -300 or greater on the prelims lost btw

>>149968496
underdogs went 5/7 on the prelim card even on the over/under for rounds there were quite a few fights that went against the book

>>149968496
Most rigged

>>149962267
Zhao lost in a close third set. Should have won but started getting too careless near the end. Hilarious that it even was close after the first set 6-0 loss. Even though it lost I definitely think this would have been the right call for these odds. Jacquemot is so inconsistent.

>>149926316
>>149967587
It’s insane how often the
>i’m smarter than you!!!
dissenters are wrong about UFC lol
I hope you both think twice before posting again. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

>>149972858
if youve never fought before you probably shouldnt bet ufc

>>149961082
Pretty straight forward 2-0 win by Kalinskaya. Had to save a few break points while serving for the first set but that was the only real scare. Great odds for Kalinskaya especially with that doubles retirement. Odds barely changed over the course of the day which surprised me. Finally got a Raducanu fade right again. Was about time.

tennis results
osuigwe - refunded
aiava - refunded
bucsa - won
akugue - lost
brace - lost
slight loss overall but it's not like i bet big on the tenny

robbie ray over 17.5 outs @ 1.80

robbie ray does average 6.1 innings pitched per start at oracle park. he has gone over 17.5 outs in 8/11 of his home games this season. the giants bullpen has been taxed pretty heavily recently, they probably wont hook him at the first sign of trouble, they will need him to eat some innings. the mets dont bat very well against lefties. he should be able to last 6 innings here.

>>149974403
wow he somehow got out of a bases loaded no out jam without giving up a run and now hes through 5 innings, no reliver up. robbie ray quality start looking pretty locked in.

i'll wait for the odds but r1 of montreal overall seems pretty meh

god this is aging me

anyway montreal
cristian 1.30
volynets 1.40
risky: bucsa 2.70
riskier: eala 3.40
riskiest: osuigwe 4.60

extremely risky: arseneault 11.00 to beat osaka

your odds may vary

>if this loses i'm withdrawing my 200 and taking a break
luckily i live to bet another day

mirra 9.00 to win montreal

Stakusic to win a set against Cristian @1.95

new high score. doing much better this week. last week was fucked.

might still be the same week... time escapes me

>>149981908
That's a winner already. Very comfortable 6-2 by Stakusic in the first set.

>>149926684
bc&pbs

Always bet on the horse with 'fine' or 'perfect' in its name.

anyone like one of these belgian matches for goals?

We are so back.

Well, the Tigers finally decided to show up. That's the day over.

>>149961688
if theyre going to keep giving me free money i am going to take it
devers is a homosexual, also

>>149991144
baseball is hard. the whitesox are better than the yankees over the past 2 weeks

etcheverry @1.5 vs. herbert

>>149992731
Yes but now you can bet on Yankees cause theyre over their sloompa

Luis Vaca says Bolivar @1.3 is a certainty

And maybe River Plate @1.62 . At home and good form

Worthless fucking Spanish whores

>>149981908
Adding Tomova to win a set against Collins @2.3

>>149994133
not picking etcheverry again any time soon, herbert is awful and he still almost won

>>149996582
Completely agree. Etcheverry has been so bad lately. Even when he wins it's ugly.

>>149994748
Tomova lost a very winnable second set for the 2-0. Not too convinced by Collins so might fade her again later in the tournament.

andreescu killed herself at the end but managed to win the match. i give mirra a 99.9% chance of beating her.

>>149978347
cristian 1.30 - won
volynets 1.40 - lost - adding her to my do not bet on list
risky: bucsa 2.70 - lost
riskier: eala 3.40 - lost - also adding to my list she's clearly crap and not living up the hype
riskiest: osuigwe 4.60 - lost
forgot mboko but she was a win

todays montreal
joint 2.50
cirstea 1.50
putintseva 1.20
boulter 1.30
uchijima 4.00
not sure about branstine 3.50 to beat sakkari

Gotta love Oak Creek Gal.

>>149978287
worst 1.12 i've ever lost btw. it was for a place and it came dead last.

>>149998519
also fuck it i'm still doing multis. i bet dick all on tennis so it's fine.

i went to the whitecaps game the other day and looked at the bet365 app in the stadium while the game was in progress. 5 minutes after the game started, and immediately at the start of the second half, the game clock in the bet365 app was consistently 1-2 seconds ahead of the time displayed on the scoreboard in real life. the whitecaps are a pretty small time team from a meme league, so maybe things are different if you were betting on a real madrid or man city, or some other top team in a top euro league, but its probably safe to assume the book is scamming you in some way with live betting.

AZ Diamondbacks losing to Detroit Tigers.

>3rd place
lel
slow day today

>>149999182
>worst 1.12 i've ever lost

>>150001110
of all the losses that i've lost that is definitely one of my losses

Swedish Superettan

Vasteras SK moneyline (-165/1.61) vs Trelleborgs

mirra 1.15 to beat andreescu
i think it's a guarantee
chuck it in a multi to increase your odds i say

>>149998519
I like the Uchijima call. I'll follow you on that. Branstine to win a set could be interesting.

Taking Carballes-Baena to beat Ugo Carablli @1.9 later today. Ugo Carabelli seems to have picked up an injury in Umag. Doubt he's going to be ready to play on hard courts now.

>>149982693
only 5 bets today but i made them count i reckon

>>150002214
Noice

>>150002426
ty!

>>149999609
depends on the market but generally live betting is just bad value with vigs often 20% or more.
only live bets that arent terrible are ML spread and total, but youre always paying extra

if this loses i'll actually give up multis

>>150002466
How much did you started with?

>>150002778
$200, was below $100 several times but i've finally managed to get a good run going

>>150002754
Watch Putintseva lose to Guo

>>150003088
i'm very worried about that. putintsevas been complete ass lately but surely she can win this one.

>>150002787
The shift in momentum, yes. Most important

going to bed at $281.25 so the multis been paid for at least

>>150003088
Should have just bet on this. Putintseva is a must fade at this point.

Comesana to win the first set against Dzumhur @1.55 since Dzumhur had little time to get used to the jetlag and different surface this shortly after losing in Umag. He also looked completely unmotivated to do anything against Taberner. Basically had a meltdown from the beginning of the match.

>>150005205
Comesana with a quick 6-3 in the first set. Pretty much went as expected.

Phillies moneyline
Rangers moneyline
SF Giants moneyline
Paige Bueckers under 15.5

based or retarded?

>>150006677
tough to get ahead paying -200 for baseball but i dont hate it

>>150001726
Ugo Carabelli retired being down in the second set. Would have obviously lost 2-0 if they had played it out. Knew he wasn't fit. Definitely the right call but should have probably just gone with the first set since the injury was a concern.

One more pick for today: Decided to go with Brainstine to win a set against Sakkari @1.9

Anyone like rinderknech?

>Blue Jays ruining everything right out the gate two days in a row

Damn

>>150007450
Another case of a player who had little time to get used to the jetlag and surface change compared to someone who has been playing hard court matches all month in North America. Don't think too highly of Galarneau but this seems too much of a typical letdown spot for Rinderknech to really like him here. I'd stay away or rather take Galarneau to win a set for basically the same odds.

>>150007498
jays suck, idiot

>>150005090
yep no more multis

>>150008138
i thought you were going to bed?

montreal isn't going to be my tournament, not betting on it any further
>>150008196
>8 hours 55 minutes ago

>>150008230
i should probably go to bed

>>150000222
>>150001304
Hopefully /bet/ tailed.

whew race status went from closed to final with no interim and my bal didn't update so i figured i lost (i yolo'd my profit) and then it updated

>>150001726
uchijima is temporarily going on my do not bet list
branstine won a set so i hope you took that

>>149998519
sakkari barely beat branstine
feels like a cursed tournament like we had the other month
staying away

$57,500

>>150010583
>sakkari
That fucking whore got broken on Set 3 Game 5. Nearly killed my bankroll.

>>150011394
you're a brave one to beat on sakkari

bet

>>150010049
Sure took Branstine to win a set >>150007245

>>150007576
Galarneau with the 2-0. Can't trust most of these players with such little turnover time. Hope you stayed away.

Picks for today:

Brooksby to beat Moutet @2

Bagnis to win a set against Borges @2.5

Parks to beat McNally @3

Shnaider to beat Bouzkova @1.7

>>150011686
>>150011690
Just one game, thought she'd be alright.

>>149894018 (OP)
>>150003275
I need 2.00 odds on counter strike 2 for the superbet promo any tipps?

>>150009914
cash out $100
youre free rollin, baby!

>>149992566
2ez. rockies cant hit for shit at sea level

white hot white sox to beat the phillies @ +165 is tempting

just a few low odd bets to finish the night turning my 305 into 311.19. every dollar counts!

free money alert
fanatics scwharber 1+ hr +200
365 schwarber u0.5 HR -190

Guys, check out the U23 games.
You can find some juicy odds. I got Japan U23 @3.25 yesterday against Uzbekistan. Japan won 2-0.

Parks choked a tiebreak she should have won to lose a really close 2-1 to McNally. Had a 4-1 lead and also double faulted on match point to throw the match. Definitely won't be betting on Parks again any time soon on outdoor courts. These weak second serves and double faults are disgusting.

can you guys teach me how to play baccarat?

>>150015494
>sit next to old asian lady at baccarat table
>copy her bets
>????
>profit

Joint beating Fernandez was probably the most obvious upset of the day but I psyched myself out of it. Players who aren't used to winning titles tend to phone it in with such little turnover time.

lmao bluejays

I feel much more degenerate betting on horses than I do baseball and football.

barnet scores at the last minute to win my bet

>>150016588
could be worse. could be greyhounds

more rigged player props. only a matter of time before these markets are banned since its impossible to stop the players. only the retards are getting caught and youre dumber than they are if you think theyre they only ones doing it.
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/breaking-news/article/guardians-closer-emmanuel-clase-placed-on-paid-leave-in-connection-with-mlb-sports-betting-investigation-165427210.html

>>150016872
How come no one ever posted a slip here. You would think the hackers known as 4chan would provide us with such informations

Shnaider is starting to make a comeback after losing the first set 6-2 and being down 5-1 in the second one. Bouzkova had 2 match points. Would be so mad if I was on Bouzkova but Shnaider needs to pull it off all the way first actually.

>>150016827
could be worse. could be roosters

Looking at finished matches I see Ito actually pulled off a comeback against Paolini too. So mad I didn't go for her. Was eyeing these odds all day. Saw stuff like @7 to win but thought I've been going for too many dumb longshots lately. Need to stop being so tilted by missed opportunities.

>>150017484
Shnaider does all this and goes up 5-2 in the tiebreak just to end up losing 7-5 anyway. It's one of those days today. Can only hope Bagnis at least gets a set win but he'll probably lose in a quick 2-0.

>>150012212
1 win and 3 losses. At least Bagnis won the first set set. Should have been 2 wins if not for the disgusting choke by Parks. Didn't catch the Brooksby match. No idea how he lost this badly. Starting to wonder if he might be slightly injured but that's just a guess. Need to dig deeper to find out what might be wrong with him currently. Might have to start fading him anyway. Already complained about Shnaider so not much to say about that other than that Bouzkova is of course the only recent finalist I have been fading and the only finalist who seems to be winning. Fernandez and Noskova both out already. Kalinskaya barely struggled to advance against Li.

Picks for tomorrow probably getting posted later.

>>150018038
Boyer to beat Mensik @6.5

Stearns to win a set against Raducanu @1.9

Bronzetti to win the first set against Tauson @2.9

>>150006788
every single bet failed

panathinakos @ 1.70

>spend all day researching horses for my pick 3s
>win big on all of them
>instantly lose it betting on long shots i like the names of later that night
That's horse racing alright.

>>150022823
can confirm. lost my profit and withdrew my 200.

>>150018038
Brooksby withdrew from Cincinnati. Looks like he really has to be injured.

Nfl hurry the fook uppppp eagles chargers week 1

ohtani +125/-150 to hit a home run might be the most ridiculous line ive ever seen.

Word of warning i am frigging banned from depositing to online gambling. I've been a degen for years and they didn't care but I developed a strat for bankroll management where I basically was depositing and withdrawing $10k+ in a day in like $100-$200 maybe more or less amounts and I know it looks like structuring or laundering but I did it anyways and they just blanket banned me from depositing at casinos. Thought this was fucking america.

>>150025587
With that said does anyone know any good offshores that don't check I'd? I used Bovada with crypto for years and I fucked up and contacted support and said too much so they demanded proof of address then banned me when I refused

>>150025587
who banned you the bank or the casinos?

>>150025612
Bank. Vac banned on all sites

>>150025620
change banks. or do a prepay debit card. or do gift cards. or pay at the window and use the casino card. and maybe look into Amex.
Fliff operates under sweepstakes law so you might be able to use them but their odds suck for most markets. they also have a casino version but i dont know how that works.

>>150025620
>>150025587
I literally had $750k worth of withdrawals last year from gambling alone (with a small net loss lel) and they didn't care but two days of too many deposits and withdrawals and they buttfuck you

>>150025668
None of that really works with the volume I do. I think Chime is my best bet as a secondary bank. I can do Amex but they fuck you with cash advance fees. I've tried it before

>>150025685
i thought i had it bad when my bank cut me off at 5 transactions per day so now I have several debit cards dedicated to gambling. im working on a much smaller scale. withdraw and deposit several hundred dollars a day.

>>150025720
what about venmo or applepay?

>>150025770
PayPal might work but I'm banned from cash app and venmo and don't have Apple Pay

>>150025829
im out of ideas but good luck.
i'm doubtful its about laundering or fraud. suspect they dont like paying the fees to move the same $200 back and forth so they excercised their option to do whatever they want to stop losing money, to hell with customer service.

I love how dead these threads are now because everyone lost their money. Its so obvious. But! Atlanta Dream -3.5 is a steal they will win by 10 and the most obvious trap in the world is abound. NY Liberty who are dominant and the goats are +7 against Minnesota. Every single person on earth probably hase NY Liberty +7 but I actually have the details and its Minnesota winning by 3.

It actually is funny but predictable how these threads have died. Even the Romanian spammer is gone. Betting is bad.

>>150018918
3 out of 3 miserable losses. Don't have much to say. Thought Raducanu winning 2-0 against an atrocious Stearns was way too easy but she really can't play at all right now. The Williams loss I called should have been a wakeup call but even that didn't help. Hopefully tomorrow looks a little better or I'll probably have to stop with Toronto and Montreal for now.

>>150028579
>its funny that nobody wants to bet on the wnba
ok retard

>>150028482
betting wnba points is kind of nuts. teams usually have 2+ airballs a game.
they probably will cover though

>>150028579
i make money and i have a lot of fun

>Marlins up 2-0 in 7th inning
>Feel good because I thought I had Marlins ML or at least +1.5 like I did the Reds
>Check and realize that I switched out the +1.5 for the over at the last second

Holding out hope that I win at least one more bet before NFL season starts.

need a bournemouth goal

>>150029825
Those dumb whores almost let faveLA back in it.

>>150031127
fucking brutal, they've had two overturned

Bossy Holiday has saved my night.

>>150028579
What happend to him?

>>150033211
he went to the great parlay in the sky...

>>150033211
he plays slots

>>150033211
Nothing, i'm still lurking. I'm up 3000 ron since May 3rd, but was up 13000 last month during cwc, lost 5700 on the wcsb skendija double as well, so i'm feeling like shit.
>>150033285
Never

Someone talk me out of taking Popyrin to beat Medvedev

i love futures lotto

>>150036028
I have a potential $9000+ payout on a Blue Jays - Mets World Series.

>>150036028
>Ravens
lol lmao

>>150036658
i dont put too much thought into these. this one is all the current favorites.
>>150036463
very nice. i think the largest ive gotten to 2 legs was around $800

I don't trust European horses...

>>150036009
I know that it's going to lose anyway but I have to take it for the odds I'm seeing right now: Popyrin to beat Medvedev @4.2

typical cowardly turkish "performance" from besiktas

monterrey +0 @ 1.775

cincinnati has never won a game at elevation in mexico city against any of the ligamx giants. orlando city yesterday was a 1.90 favorite against pumas, and by the 80 minute mark you could tell they were gassed. they couldnt hang on, and ended up losing in penalties. badly out chanced, out shot, and out possessed, you could easily argue it wouldnt have been a deserved result if they won.

>>150035835
i don't rate popyrin, i feel like his game is too simple to beat medvedev

>>150039540
limited is the better word

>>150039540
It's too late, I already went for it. Don't like anything I have seen from Medvedev's recent matches including his wins which means he will easily win this one.

Doing over goals on the last 4 leagues cup matches today

reds @ 1.62

the braves are 2-13 as the books underdog on the road this year, making them the worst road underdog in the big leagues by quite some distance. when the books fade the braves, i do too. cincinnati in an important wild card chase, abbott is practically lights out at great american ball park.

Going for a Challenger play tomorrow: Salkova to beat Golubic @2.4 in Warsaw

Davidovich Fokina is mad about the scheduled time for his match tomorrow against Mensik. Made a public post complaining that their match is scheduled earlier than everyone else's. Spent a lot of time on court already in Washingtdon DC losing a really close 3-set match he should have won but ultimately choked. He's the kind of player who might just tank the match out of frustration over something like this so Mensik to win @2 looks good.

Remember niggas
If you're gonna bet on the european leagues, wait until around october. The early games are always a dice roll.

Took Zverev moneyline in my 4 legger. Fucker made me sweat.

>>150041919
holy fuck what a crazy game i closed the game and thought the reds were cooked when the braves batted around and were up by 8 runs, now its tied again.

Chargers are good pre season bets cause Harbaugh is a WAACfag.

ive seen a couple situations with futures betting on seasonal outcomes, where the book gives favorable odds for some shitter team to turn it around, and have a break out season, and when the book thinks that, they are usually not only right, they almost underestimate how much the team is actually going to turn it around. this black magic is one of the freakiest things ive ever seen.

before this mls season started, before the whitecaps hired jesper sorensen, books had them at +6500 odds, the second worst odds in the league, to win the league. when it was officially announced they hired jesper sorensen, the odds for the whitecaps to win the league jumped to +3500, on no player signing or news about the roster, just about a coaching change. whitecaps are now having a historic season, top 5 in the table, and only 2 points behind their total from last season with 9 games left to play.

the la kings coming out of the covid season were in a dark place, the general consensus was that they were starring down the barrel of a long rebuild, months before the season started they went from +500 odds to +200, just to make the playoffs. on no real news or anything, the book just somehow knew they were going to turn it around. this team would turn it around and go on to have a 99 point season and not only make the playoffs, but qualify for the playoffs before the regular season even ended.

this season the book seems to think the patriots are going to be the break out team, and i wouldnt be surprised if they are right again here. the patriots have one of the easiest schedules of the season. in the 9 games of the season, the bills are the only team they will play projected to finish above .500 this season. the browns, panthers, saints, giants, and raiders are fucking dumpster fires, that should be 5 easy wins for them. they go like 3-3 in their division, that is 8 wins for them. somebody tell me if the patriots are good enough to at least do that.

>>150035835
>>150036009
>>150039060
Congrats, I cashed out on Meddy after he won set 1.

schalke v hertha berlin
both teams to score - yes @ 1.57
their games are often high scoring, last 7 in a row between these two have seen btts + over 2.5 goals. 2 bundes also a fairly high scoring league. first game of the season so a bit of a gamble.

>>150034207
>>149894018 (OP)
Thoughts on mongolz Navi?

>>150045830
Thanks, I wasn't joking when I said that I thought Medvedev was probably going to win easily. Couldn't watch the match live but judging by the score it looks like Popyrin should have even won the first set. Often when I doubt Medvedev's play he somehow finds a way to win despite the doubts. But the odds for Popyrin were ridiculous given how much Medvedev has struggled lately. Not even the first time he loses to Popyrin.

>>150042225
Salkova was up 5-2 in the first set and then started throwing. Don't regret the play even though she lost 2-0. Hard to predict throws like this.

>>150048921
No clue

>>150042517
Aside from Mensik I'm also going for Muchova to beat Bencic @2.35 and Diallo to win a set against Fritz @1.7 today.

july
>deposited 600
>withdrew 600
(3x 200)
>you staked $1800
>you won 113 bets
>you lost 99 bets
'least i didn't lose money

>>150049402
montreal has ruined my credibility and confidence but i would've picked bencic

>>150049739
0% tax on deposits / withdrawls?

>>150050063
ya

>>150050074
Unreal

>>150050005
Have stayed away from betting on Muchova most of the year so far due to her on-going wrist problems but this is the first time in months I'm seeing a semblance of confidence in her play again. I also suspect that Bencic isn't really that fit herself either and is still suffering from her ankle injury at Wimbledon. Barely scraped by a Bouchard who hasn't even been playing tennis and just showed up to end her career.

need these swiss shitters to score a goal

Mensik is laughably bad.

diallo to win a set vs. fritz @1.73

>>150046242
its going to be a slurper

>>150052423
You silly goose

Race stewards are purposely rigging photo finishes to fuck with me.

Korean professor Tanaka at the uni thought us this way of thinking about betting. He said think of all your bets as one long continuous acca. What is an accumulator? Taking a stake, say 10$, and multiply it with some odds, say 1.20 ; then taking the stake and the winnings, 10+2 = 12$ and put it on the next game, at odds, say 1.50 . Basically going all in every time. Here you don't [have to] go all in every time, but you have to treat each game as if it's worth to get on your life's acca. It's a long timeline your betting carreer, you can take one good game today, 2 or 3 games tomorrow, maybe on a weekend even 20 games unironically, but what wouldn't make the cut on the accumulator, don't bet. This can apply even if you're broke, and you just begun with 20 bucks. Don't make an acca with all the 7 games on a friday night. Go all in on your 1 sure thing. Then go all in tomorrow on the game at 2pm, then on a combo on the two games played simultaneously at 5pm. Because also remember, if the games aren't played at the same time, there's really no reason to parlay, is it?
;)

>>150052557
well we still need one from hertha. but of course
>schalke
so we'll probably get it

>>150052858
yeah i take that back. hertha ain't it.

>>150053119
How many times you gonna use the reverse jynx??

>>150053392
i think we need to ride it until it wears off

>>150053404
Try over 3.5 in club brugge game

Does anybody here have a bookie that offers odds for the ITF tournament in Lexington this week?

>>150053504
i don't think they'll get there, but i did win a btts+O2.5 on that one

>>150053552
I lost everything

Anyone know of any good World Cup draw simulators? Been using this one from drawsimulator, Iraq and Qatar spots are still up for grabs for the next 2 weeks

>>150049402
One more play: Svitolina to win the second set against Kalinskaya @1.4 later tonight. Going specifically for the second set just in case Kalinskaya starts out strong. I imagine this has to be the point where she really runs out of energy. Has looked depleted in the last 2 matches but still managed to advance in 3 sets two times in a row.

>>150053678
the flag
the post

I have to stop getting baited into doing pick 4s, 5s and 6s on horses. Nothing good ever comes from them.

Way too early in the match to really say anything about the outcome here but insane hold by Muchova. Saved 6 break points in a row after having already broken the previous game to even the score.

mets +0 after 5 innings @ 1.80

two quality pitchers facing off in what looks to be a potential pitching duel. both teams with a below average ops and wrc+ against southpaws over the past month. the giants lead the majors with a 29% k% against lefties, becoming even worse in month of july at 33.33%. giants were big sellers at the trade deadline, while the mets are one of the best teams in the bigs at home. i would also consider david peterson over 4.5 strikeouts @ 1.68, but he has only recorded 5 strikeouts in 1 of his past 4 starts.

Muchova is winning this match. Bencic barely won that first set despite Muchova's really low first serve percentage.

>saw a guy in fucking bumfuck nowhere here wearing a sheffield wednesday scarf
>sheffield wednesday are completely imploding now due to a lack of players and money
>they play against mediocre leicester city away
>they pay @16.00
Is this a sign of a funky upset?

Diallo might be even worse than Mensik.

>>150055551
Muchova did get the 2-1. Very obvious with how the match went. Got that right at least after the atrocious showings by Mensik and Diallo.

>>150053896
Super easy 2-0 for Svitolina. Wasn't even remotely challenged in either set. That's 2 wins and 2 losses for today overall. Should have not been tricked into going for Mensik given his shaky performances lately. Picks for the next day coming in shortly.

/bet/ about to get pushed into the archives from all these spam threads

deposited my 2 hundo again, currently at $245.25 but you know what i'm like

that anon that gave the mariners under tip when they are playing at home. thank you.

>>150059890
you're welcome brother but there was a stretch for about 15 home games where it was over after over. back to normal, under 7.5 is usually gold at t-mobile park. hope you didn't get crushed on that over streak a couple months ago

UFC Vegas Taira vs Park Saturday 8/2

One of the worst cards in recent memory on paper. I like some matchups and some gambling spots.

>Souza +200 vs Rodriguez
Curtain jerker fights have been great spots for underdogs recently. I don't think Piera is good enough to be -245 vs anyone. This is a value play in a fight that likely goes to decision. "fight to be won by split decision" is +250 lol...that's usually 2x the payout.

>Estevam ITD +120 vs Bunes
Estevam missed weight by 5lbs. He didn't look stressed on the scale either. It looked like a strategy to gain an edge rather than a guy dying from a weight cut. I think he'll take down Bunes early and often and put him away via GnP or sub inside 2 rounds. Bunes sucks.

>Bashi to win rounds 1-2 -110
Bashi got fraud checked by C-Rod, which happens to every young prospect. He's miles better than this Yannis guy who won't be able to handle the pressure and wrestling from Bashi. Should be a quick finish. If you want a bigger risk, bigger reward, take Bashi to win by sub round 1 +275.

>Klein +130 vs Pulayev
These guys both suck and won't be in UFC long. I don't understand why Pulayev is favored, he's fucking trash. Klein gave Abdul Malik a scare in his UFC debut as a massive dog, I think he wins comfortably over Pulayev. Mispriced line.

>Vieira vs Gore over 1.5 rounds -145
Everyone expects Vieira to take down Gore and sub him quick. I'm not so sure he'll find the takedown. Gore is gunshy, low volume, and I believe he tires Vieira out by defending takedowns. There's always a chance Vieira gets an instatap with his incredible BJJ game, but I'm on the over. Also sprinkling FGTD +180.

>Fletcher +330 vs Nakamura
I don't expect Fletcher to win, pure value play. Nakamura got exposed his last fight and should not be -425. He's a good wrestler and competent striker, but not the type of killer that -425 implies. Fletcher needs to keep it standing. If he does, he's live to pull the upset over the overrated Nakamura.

1/2

>>150059980

>Vallejos by DEC +175
Silva is durable AF. I'd be surprised if Vallejos puts him away. This will be a very entertaining fight, probably FOTN. Vallejos wins 30-27 by controlling the pace and landing the bigger shots.

>Brener +225 vs Ribovics
Everyone is glazing Ribovics and I don't get why. He was getting pieced up by Zellhuber for two rounds, then couldn't put him away despite Zellhuber being out on his feet for 2 minutes. Ribovics is the kind of guy who you love to back at even/plus money but not the kind of guy you want to lay -275 with his dogshit TDD. If Brener fights smart (no guarantees) he uses his grappling to control Ribovics half the fight. This fight smells like a split decision assuming Brener fights smart. If Brener tries to stand and bang he's going to get smoked.

>Duncan by SUB +900
Small bet. Duncan is a brawler and has a nasty guillotine. I could see Rebecki shooting and getting caught. At 10-1 payout you don't need to risk much.

>Park +285 vs Taira
This is a wildcard. Park might be trash but I'll take a flyer on him. He's got power, finishing instincts, and he's an exciting fighter. Everyone is shitting on Park's strength of schedule but Taira's isn't much better honestly. He gave Royval a good fight, but besides that loss his UFC wins aren't too impressive. Beat Alex Perez because of a torn ACL, and finished a few cans just like Park. I might be very wrong here, but I'm just not sold on Taira yet. Give me the undefeated underdog at significant plus money.

well that was a screw up. i was checking what the return would be and accidentally hit enter which placed the bet without needing confirmation. (lost, naturally)

it's astounding how often the favourite greyhound comes dead last

>>150057698
Forgot to post the picks:

Khachanov to beat Ruud @1.75

Yastremska to win a set against Rybakina @2.15

Mboko to beat Gauff @3.2

>>150062780
By the way, if your bookie offers it I would go with Lepchenko to beat Wang in Lexington. Odds should be around @2.25 from what I can tell. >>150053532

>>150062451
Racing is cruel like that.

>>150059980
>>150060054
Too many big underdogs.

0/4 to start the day. I love gambling.

>>150069262
Not a single fucking hit. Holy shit.

anyone like dresden/furth for goals tomorrow? i think i like molde/bryne in norway. both clubs have more goals than matches played and still negative GD

>>150069262
im like 3/8 today lost qutie a bit summer turned from surefire bets to all fixed matches Asston fucked my ass big time today

had a small win on the inter miami match, both teams 2+ cards. wanted to take O1.5 1H, but didn't.

>>150062780
3 out 3 wins. Complete domination by Mboko in particular. Gauff was lucky to have even made it through the first 2 matches with this kind of play. I did get the Lepchenko call wrong >>150062929 but couldn't even go for it myself. Hope nobody else paid attention to it.

Picks for tomorrow:

Rublev to beat Davidovic-Fokina @2.1

Muchova to beat Keys @2.35

Tauson to win a set against Swiatek @2.7

>>150073331
Calling this way in advance already but if Mboko and Rybakina play each other in Montreal the odds for Mboko will probably be in the @2.8 range or so and I expect Mboko to win this time. That is of course assuming that Mboko beats the winner of Zhu - Bouzas Maneiro and Rybakina beats Kostyuk but these are the expected outcomes. Although I wouldn't be so sure about Kostyuk. If the odds keep rising for her there might be some value going for that too.

Been trying to keep tabs a little on doubles as well without betting on it and starting to get the impression that Krejcikova/Ostapenko will win the whole thing. Too bad you can't really get futures odds on doubles tournaments. Mboko might also be interesting as a winner sprinkle since she's on the other side of the draw from Swiatek and I wouldn't rule out Swiatek getting upset before the final. But have to wait for the futures odds to update once the play for today has finished.

just 2 bets today. 1 win 1 loss. didn't see anything to get a streak going.

>>150073567
I see Mboko to win Montreal @8 right now. Could be worth a sprinkle.

free money, again.
harper hr
o0.5 fanduel +350
u.05 365 -340

>>150084036
Why dont you buy a surebet subscription its like 10 dollars you can find sure bets with roi above 1%

>>150084446
because those are scams with out of date odds

>>150084493
You need to be fast
When i did surebet i only picked 7% to 10% roi,the downside is that you get banned within a week in most bet sites

Keys looks awful on serve. Should be a 2-0 for Muchova if this keeps up.

>>150086809
I jinxed it

>>150087216
Rough 2-1 loss. Had high hopes after the strong first set. Definitely was very winnable but Muchova wasn't clutch enough in some important points. Will keep betting her at plus odds because I think she's starting to find form again after the wrist problems.

It's joever.

Rublev manages to hold on in a close second set and then Davidovich-Fokina retires down 3-0 in the third set. Another win turned into a push. Part of why I went with Rublev is that I suspected he must be running out of energy with all the time spent on court in the last week but didn't think he would just retire once he's down.

Trying to make a few bucks on Detroit vs Philly baseball, any ideas?

>>150090789
I'd say "we're back," but this is pretty dire. I had a WPS ticket and my horse only placed.

>>150091273
I'll share some horses tomorrow if my bet lands today

>>150091174
dont over think it just take phillies moneyline. phillies have a massive pitching advantage here, charlie morton is having the worst season of his career, highest era, and highest batting average against in his 18 year career. this is also his first start on a new team and in a new stadium. he really struggles on the road this season, posting a 6.39 ERA when he wasnt pitching in a pitcher friendly camden yards. bryce harper has 29 plate appearances against charlie morton and is batting .414, with 7 rbis, and an ops of 1.182, while kyle schwarber in 23 plate appearances against morton is batting .304 with 3 rbis, and an ops of 1.017. only 2 players on the tigers have ever faced christopher sanchez. if you wanted a meme bet i would take schwarber to hit a home run @ 3.10. struggling right handed pitcher could easily hang a curveball, and a left handed power hitter like schwarber will easily take that deep to right. schwarber has taken morton yard twice in his career so far.

>>150073331
Tauson just won the first set in a tiebreak so that's a win, a push and a loss in total. Should have been 2 wins if not for the retirement. Picks for tomorrow coming in soon.

cashed out a x17 parley for only a 8$ gain......
padres -1.5
cubs -1.5
marlins -1.5
fever
karmie corp lec

>>150092146
Tauson didn't just win a set but the whole match 2-0. That makes the Mboko win look even more possible now. Knew there was a good chance Swiatek would get upset before the final.

>>150091713
oh shit schwarber hit a dinger

>>150092146
Michelsen to win a set against Khachanov @1.6

Kostyuk to beat Rybakina @3.8

>>150092950
Right on the dot! Have any good plays for tomorrow?

shitty day with nothing on. 6 bets 3 wins 2 losses 1 refund.

>>150094442
I lost all my funds yesterday.
And i could've won the same amount if not for 2 horses (@1.3) shitting up my ufc parley

it wouldn't be a bet on bulgarian soccer without some shitter getting a red card

brewers @ 1.66

bit of a pitching mismatch here today. eric fedde has been struggling quite a bit recently. hes given up at least 3 runs in his past 6 starts, and was the losing pitcher in 5 of those games. he era has very rapidly climbed from 3.5 to 5.3 through those 6 starts. hes walked at least 1 batter in 11 straight games, and in 4 of his past 6 games he had the same or more walks than strikeouts. finding the strikezone has been a bit of an issue for him recently. if this lineup posted on the braves twitter is real, then 3 of their best batters arent even starting today. acuna, ozuna, and riley combine for almost 50 homeruns, and over 120rbis and it doesnt look like they are in the starting lineup. quinn priester is a solid pitcher and will induce a lot of groundballs. 4 straight wins for him, and post all star game he only given up 4 runs in 3 games. the brewers are the currently best team overall, and on the road, and their bats are on fire right now, 38 runs and 56 hits in their past 3 games. i honestly dont know why you are getting 1.66 odds here, this seems a little fishy to be quite honest, vegas must know something is up. but im still going to take it because i dont trust a bunch of braves bench warmers to beat the brewers.

>>150099918
is the lineup real, though?

>>150100564
acuna and riley were put on the dl today, and ozuna is not playing because he has some sort of hip problem. the odds are now 1.76, vegas definitely knows something is up here.

Kostyuk can barely play with that right wrist. Going to be mad as fuck if she doesn't retire soon.

>>150100752
maybe it's priester's reverse splits. i took the brewers, though.

>>150100851
Played on for another game but then thankfully decided to retire. Was wondering how long it will take. Should have retired in the first set already. Finally a retirement saves an obviously losing bet for once.

>>150100950
you like michelson over khachanov?

>>150101031
I have him to win a set. For some reason I don't trust him to win the whole match but I think that's a reasonable play for these odds too. Think Khachanov's odds are a tad too short.

>Pure garbage when I bet Astros ML
>Bonafide ace when I bet against the Astros

Thanks Jason Alexander. Appreciate it. Also just realized I had Kyle Stowers to hit a HR tonight as well. Cooked beyond reason.

I think I like Rangers-Viktoria BTTS tomorrow

>>150073567
Mboko is confirmed to play Rybakina now in the next round. Will likely take Mboko to win the moment the odds are up because I expect money to be coming in on her. They did just play in Washington and Rybakina won 2-0 but I think Mboko was starting to get a feel for Rybakina's game near the end and kept it somewhat close for a while even despite the weak second serves and double faults. This time should look a little different.

All service games so far by Michelsen have been fucking atrocious. Only reason the score isn't more lopsided is that Khachanov has been terrible as well. Usually I wouldn't make such a call this early into the match but it's looking rough.

>>150102977
was thinking the same thing. he looks cooked.

my bookie hasn't got the odds yet but
xu (roehampton)
valdmannova (ourense)
klugman (roehampton)
akugue (leipzig)
jovic (cincinnati)

>>150102987
Maybe he wakes up in the second set but I'm not too hopeful.

>>150103034
I know odds aren't up yet but Jovic should be a 1.03 favourite or so against Eikeri. No way that's worth taking even if I don't doubt that she will obviously win this.

>>150103119
i know but i love her very much and i always bet on her when i'm able to

>>150098952
Kek

>>150102977
Michelsen did actually wake up in the second set. Huge chance to break wasted sealed the deal for the 2-0 loss.

>>150102380
Lines are up and I'm taking Mboko to beat Rybakina @2.75 before it gets any lower. Predicted a @2.8 range so pretty much called it.

what a shit day, just wanted to make a few dollars for the tennis
>loss, won, loss, loss, loss, win, win
was at $100 several times but that last win put me at $213.38 so i've got 13.38 for the tennis now
just one of those days where every pick losses to some random horse no one saw coming

>>150104369
looses*

well at least i'm not that guy

>>150093341
A loss and a push. Should have been two losses but thankfully Kostyuk had enough sense to retire with that wrist injury. Don't think I like much for today. Kind of leaning Tauson to beat Keys but think the odds are a little too low to go for it. Instead I'm going for Tararudee to beat Branstine @2.2 in Landsville later tonight.

>>150098952
Bet loko sofia to beat botev in their next game

jordan westbum

>>150104369
withdraw 200

>>150105906
nah, i'll keep trying. 200 is enough that i'm fairly confident in recovering when i lose.

Here some horse for my fellows /bet/ degenaretes
Bet on conjecture 5 minutes

>>150106197
was going to but the big bet told me not to (even if it came 4th)

>>150106281
He came second its over....

>>150106327
i try not to bet on those races where it's the horses 1st/2nd/3rdish race. they never go how you expect.

could try komorebi 1.60 in deauville if you have any monies left

>>150106380
I dont that was my last penny im afraid

>>150106394
ouchie

random quickie on dynamo kiev

any danes here with an opinion on aarhus/lyseng?

damn fiba asia mispricing pts spread

estonian shitter missed a pen

>>150107914
fucking loser

>>150105949
if you take out the 200 now and grind back up from $13 youll never lose again

>>150105904
going big with 2 today. story hasnt been shit since he left colorado. tale as old as todd helton

kiev dead

>bet on both teams to score
>only 1 shot on target by halftime

>>150108736
i hate it when they just decide they aren't going to do it that day

on the bet 365 in game stats it says
kyiv 46% possession, 5 shots, 0 on target
pafos 54% possession, 3 shots, 1 on target

but then on soccer24 it says
kyiv 54% possession, 6 shots, 0 on target
pafos 46% possession, 4 shots, 2 on target

why arent they the same?

>>150105495
Adding Krunic to beat Ito @4 in Cincinnati

that has to be a penalty for kyiv

hes going over to the monitor now probably going to be overturned to no penalty.

>>150108828
One of them its wrong and will be correct after the game ends
I won 250 dollars last year because of an error like this

>>150109153
>won 250 dollars last year because of an error like this
What was it?

>>150108793
0-0 draw should be minus 5 points in the standings

>>150108828
official stat source is in the house rules. usually its the official league website.

>>150109165
Arbritage betting on shot on targets i won both bets in total was 500 dollars (2k reais) i managed to withdraw the money but got limited not long after

>>150106743
top kek, and ofc i initially wanted rangers

viktoria laying down

Kiev really took one for the bookies.

>>150109553
think the line was more based off a coefficient or some past elo when they used to at least win a game or 2 in the group stages. kyiv and waxtap havent been able to sign new players for a few seasons now. they are basically just playing players from their b team. kyiv and shaktar are not good teams to bet on even if they are playing a team from a micronation.

FUCK plzen. them and that fucking estonian shitter ruined my fucking day.

Tomorrow i'll try 1 horse agaisnt another on those options from bet365 these fucking animals will give me back everything i lost plus tip

Probably a bad move, but I am betting #4 Wishuponastar Deo to win for Woodbine Standardbred Race 8. The filly has looked phenomenal in her previous starts and I want to believe in her. Keyword: WANT to believe. Her competition is really strong. Do not follow me. I am in this to lose money.

im thinking the blue jays destroy the rockies again tonight. might even be worth going way down the runline here for a meme bet because this could get ugly again.
a big pitching advantage here for the blue jays, berrios is a decent pitcher, probably the blue jays number 4 or 5 guy in the pitching rotation, not a stud, but he gets the job done. however the rockies are, for a second game in a row, sending a young reliever in to start the game. tonight will be anthony molinas first career start in the big leagues, hes has made 5 appearances from the bullpen, but never started a game. the blue jays have the lowest k% in the majors overall, and on the road. they will put a ton of balls into play and not strikeout. anthony molina is being thrown right into the fire tonight. the rockies will somehow have to keep up with a high powered offense that is likely going to get 10+ hits tonight. the moneyline will likely payout early if you dont mind 1.43 odds. but im thinking blue jays -2.5 @ 1.86, or blue jays -3.5 @ 2.40 might be worth it here.

>>150105495
>>150108962
Pretty straight forward 2-0 for Tararudee. On the other hand Krunic was up a set and a break before completely falling apart and never finding any footing again Think the Krunic read wasn't too far off for these odds Big scare for Ito for a set and a half. A win and a loss both at plus odds so can't complain too much.

Chris Paddack still plays for the Twins I guess. Well, time to check tomorrow's schedule.

>>150111057
i thought he was traded to detroit? i took TOR -1.5

Of course Tauson wipes the floor with Keys. Was too scared to go for it even though I was leaning it all day.

>>150111312

He was. I would have taken the Blue Jays tonight but I am 0-5 the last 5 times I have bet on them lol. They've hurt me so much this past week that I won't even trust them against the Rockies despite them already winning by 14 runs last night.

#10 Alltherightplaces to place/show in Woodbine Standardbred race 5. Good value if the odds hold.

and now columbus is going to slurp after they got their early goal taken away. almost every one of these matches has been a goal fest, but this is one is going to be 0-0 i can tell already

>>150111772
Disregard. I suck cocks. Starting from the 10 pole was too much to ask of him.

Every week I bet on this horse named P L Rainbow Dash and every week she disappoints me.

>>150103034
all 5 won

berrios is a fucking bum. this bet is already junked.

>>150112042
GR15 is no more. :)

>>150110723
Good thing I hedged with a place bet.

>>150112648
One Belle was just too good.

>>150112074
phew and the meme run line bet is back alive

disaster 6th for the rockies the meme runline is looking good.

If anyone cares, Trooper Hanover seems like a strong favourite for this last Woodbine Standardbred race. I can see him going all the way.

>>150112899
Always nice to end the night on a hit.

>>149894039
>du plessis to fraud check khamzat the 16th
the only thing you will get correct

cincinnati
rakhimova 1.50
siegemund 1.33
ruzic 1.28
jovic 1.50
maybe hon 2.10 but i have doubts

>>150114853
How good of a bet is this on Du Plessis lads?

how are you supposed to predict golf?

Which EL, CL and UECL games todoy and tomorrow are most likely to be under 3,5 goals

Mochizuki to beat Wong @1.8

>>150116411
Lech - Red star
Cruj - Braga
Panathinaikos - waxtap
FSB - Drita

Put the house on it

>>150116573
Waxtap got good attack

>Bet horse vs horse
>my favorite jorse of the race finishes last and the one who i bet agaisnt finishes 2nd last
Clown world

>>150116573
>Cruj
>FSB

blue jays + seattle ML parlay again

Just made back 200 euro I lost on random shit by gambling on efootball

>>150116957
any picks for Romania Cup today?

>>150117101
Tunari to advance

>>150117655
>>150117655
>>150117655

>>150116448
Mochizuki completel choked away the first set and then gave up. Fuck him.