football is back edition

>>150117655 (OP)
When does the ncaa starts?

>>150117792
football in a few weeks. basketball in november

bet365 offering outrageous value today with ohtani 1+ hit super boosted to +100.
espn has the under 0.5 if you want it.

going to make a small bet on a dog today. reds beat the cubs and sweep the series. andrew abbott is a monster, 4-0 on the road, with a 2.28 era and a .91 whip. the cubs arent batting very well right now. cubs hvent been swept in a 3 game series at home so far this season. a lot of dogs pulling off early upsets so far today. reds @ 2.15

>>150118931
Great gonna save some money for that
Damn horses bankrupted me

>>150119917
be careful the first few weeks. lots of unbalanced matchups. superior teams just want to get through without injury. inferior teams may be satisfied with a TD or 2.

of course the iceland league game is the slurper

Zverev to beat Khachanov @1.4

Tauson to beat Osaka @2.35

this mariners game tonight has trap written all over it. yes, on paper the mariners should easily win. they have acquired players at the deadline to go on a deep playoff run. george kirby is in good form right now, 2.61 era and 0.92 whip in his past 7 starts, only giving up 28 hits and 12 earned runs in 41.1 innings, while jonathan cannon has posted a 5.88 era and 1.51 whip over a slightly smaller 33.2 inning sample size for the white sox. but a few things to consider here, the mariners have only played 1 other game this season as 1.37 (-270) or lower favorites, and lost. since the all star game, the mariners have the worst batting average in the majors and 4th lowest ops, conversely, the white sox have the 4th highest batting average, 4th most runs scored, and 3rd highest ops in that same span. in the white sox past 10 games, they were the books dog in all 10, and ended winning in 5. the mariners as the books favorite, in all situations, are only 41-39, and at home, are only 21-20 at home. if we are going by the books odds, the implied probability of the mariners winning should be closer to 50%, not 73% probability like the moneyline implies here. the marines moneyline is an absolutely brutal bet here to make, even if they win you ate like 20% probability for no reason at all.

Mboko breaks Rybakina serving for the match to stay in it in the third set. Live odds for Mboko were like @12 a while ago. Now they're @2.2

>>150123552
And then she gets broken herself anyway. Great stuff.

>>150123666
Breaks back again super quickly to bring it to a deciding tiebreak. Will shut up now until the match is actually over for good.

damn victoria mboko what an upset my + game spread saved too

>>150123705
Thought you were doing live coverage of the match

>>150102380
>>150103697
Knew Mboko would beat Rybakina before the match was even confirmed to happen and called the correct odds in advance as well. Been preaching for days about this. Great comeback in the third set. Thought it was pretty much over after she took a medical timeout and got broken shortly afterwards. Rybakina's tendency to fall apart after a strong first set in later stages of tournaments is ridiculous. Also hope somebody took Mboko to win Montreal before it was too late >>150079554

Obviously she hasn't actually won it yet but @8 odds are easily hedged since she won't be a big underdog in the final regardless of who she ends up facing there. My fear is that Mboko has truly run out of energy now. The medical timeout plus a long match when she isn't used to making deep runs at bigger tournaments yet means she might just fall over in the final. Not much time to recover until the final gets played either. Might end up taking Tauson in the final if she hopefully beats Osaka.

>>150115347
won
won
won
lost
lost but didn't bet on

Have barely bet on Zverev all year because he's been playing like shit at every other tournament. Thought it was time for him to find some footing because I imagined he was gaining some confidence back with new coaching but that was just my imagination. Khachanov has also usually been a comfortable match up for him. Big fade target for the US Open.

>>150121937
Some terrible last minute bets on both Zverev and Tauson.

>>150123365
way too much analysis for a regular season baseball game. all that matters is starting pitchers and recent performance.

UFC Vegas 110: Dolizde vs Hernandez

Had a crappy card last week with a couple good reads that still lost. Gotta bounce back on this abomination of a card.

>Brundage -160 vs McConico
Never expected to bet Brundage as a favorite, but McConico is not UFC level. He's getting this fight as a thank you for facing Ruziboev on short notice. Brundage should put him away. IMO this line will get steamed to -300 or shorter by fight night. Bet it now.

>Stoliarenko by SUB +600
Only way she wins is by submission. Take this instead of the +330 moneyline. She probably gets TKO'd but at this number it's worth a gamble. She has the better ground game.

>Edwards-Cachoeira under 2.5 rounds +260
Six of Cachoeira's last 8 fights ended under 2.5 rounds. She fights like the Zombie Girl nickname implies. Caution to the wind and kill or be killed. Edwards is not a finisher, but she has really improved in her UFC run and found finishes the last two times out.

>Medic vs Urbina over 1.5 rounds +120
Market is fading Urbina because of his inactivity. Lots of guys come back with ring rust and take a while to get going. I could see this one going the distance.

>Smith vs Kazama fight to start round 2 NO +120
Kazama is terrible. I don't see him surviving more than a couple minutes against a younger, more athletic fighter. Smith ITD bets are juiced so just take the fight to end quick.

>Cerqueira to win by KO +800
This guy is terrible. His only win condition is a KO. I doubt it happens but I'm not laying the juice with all of Walker's KO props and unders.

>CLD by KO +180 vs Anders
Anders is washed. He's been badly hurt/dropped multiple times recently. Ancient Chris Weidman had him on the ropes. CLD is not known for finishing, I just don't see Anders surviving 15 minutes against the younger, faster, better fighter. CLD has a high ceiling and needs to stop fighting like a bitch.

1/2

>>150124509
I thought about taking it, but stayed away because of how comfortably Khachanov handled Michelson, who had been playing well until then.

>>150125154

>Fili +200 vs C-Rod
Fili's chin worries me a bit, he's been in some wars. Still, I like his length and better striking. He'll need to stay off his back to have a chance. At even money I'd take C-Rod, at 3-1 payout I'm taking Fili. C-Rod is too inconsistent to be -240 against an experienced, longer fighter.

>Lucindo vs Hill under 2.5 rounds +450
Value play. Gotta do it at this number. The over is listed at -720 on DK. Injuries and fluke subs/flash KO's happen.

>Matsumoto+CLD+Smith parlay -128
Don't see any of them losing

>Matsumoto+CLD+Edwards all over 2.5 rounds parlay +199
Betting this as a hedge in case this card is boring

>Erceg by sub +185
Don't like this number much, but it's the most likely outcome IMO. Ode can't grapple. If Erceg gets him down it's probably a quick sub. Club n sub is possible too.

>Dolidze by DEC +1100
People are sleeping on Dolidze. He has an excellent MMA skillset. Dude outgrappled Hermansson and has outstruck a lot of good strikers. I like him to take the first two rounds then do just enough in one of the championship rounds to get a win. Don't see Fluffy submitting him. Also taking over 3.5 rounds -130. 5-round fights go the distance at a high clip.

2/2

>>150125154
>>150125235
What's your prediction on ddp khamzat?

>>150125306
Khamzat finishes him quick. DDP can't stop a takedown.

cincinnati
joint 1.36
cirstea 2.50
danilovic 1.90 (50% chance)
stearns 1.60
sramkova 2.10
uchijima 2.50 is still temporarily on my do not bet on list but it's a possibility
kartal 1.30

roehampton
klugman 1.30
xu 1.40

>>150125685
since there's 9 of them i'm going to experiment and put them in combination 3 leg multis and see what happens

anyone gonna put anything on venus this time

>>150126764
I was eyeing her to win a set but don't like the odds enough.

I think I have to take Zarazua to beat Putintseva @2.1 even though the odds aren't that high. Putintseva simply has been this terrible. Watch her play her best tennis in months now.

>>150127861
Also on Osuigwe to beat Maria @2.3

doubling down on a bet almost always loses for me but i had to yolo that win to save my night

risking a golf top finish arb this weekend. very nervous. almost like real gambling

$2.35 on my tennis bets, see if i wake up to a profit. i doubt it.

Niggas really think chiefs finna hit that O 11.5 with that gauntlet

>>150128549
12 is about right. will beat giants jags and colts. probably 4-2 in the division. 3-3 against eagles ravens lions skins bills cowboys gets them to 12. i have a hard time seeing 13 and the week 18 game against the raiders could be meaningless so under 11.5 is the play but its not going to be comfortable

Took Viking FK @ +105

>>150128603
12 is the logical conclusion, which is why it's a trap. Mahomes will be punished for opposing the 18 game schedule, normie cattle have been groomed into wanting to see him refballed into early retirement, and he clearly cares more about his family than football now. Mahomes will put up 4,000 and 30 buddies, but ref-induced 9-8 no offs is the script for KC.

If you want free money, find a book that let's you take Pat for comeback player of the year

Who do you guys follow? And where did you get your wins?

anyone like BTTS+O2.5 in PAOK-Wolfsberger?

Going to watch some horses IRL today. Wish me luck.

>>150130859
good luck

>>150125685
Nice call with Cirstea. Vekic keeps being a favourite in these matchups for some reason.

>>150128976
damn, lost every bet today.

i cant watch sports i have an open bet on the volatility is too much how do people enjoy this

anyone betting NFL preseason???

Ito keeps winning match after match and has plus odds for most of them. Keep thinking she must run out of energy but she keeps playing and winning. I know the moment I decide to actually bet on Ito she will lose for sure.

DC free money in soccer.

over 5.5 runs + mariners moneyline @ 1.86

shane smith not a very good pitcher. this will be his second start since returning from the 15 day dl with a sprained ankle. 25 earned runs, 25 hits in his past 6 starts (22.1 innings) and hes given up a home run in his past 5 starts. he has started 1 game against the mariners earlier this season in chicago, 5.0IP, 3ER, 2H, 2W, and a no decision, the mariners went on to win the game. logan gilbert is a decent pitcher, mid rotation guy for the mariners. 12 earned runs, 25 hits in his past 6 starts (32.2 innings). but the more important thing here is that the whitesox are batting well enough to at least push across a couple runs. just need them to score 2, maybe even 3, and the mariners should be able to out hit them. its a much nicer day today in the pacific northwest than yesterday. sunny day with clear skies, they already had 14 runs and 5 homeruns yesterday on a cool overcast evening, today is a much warmer clear day, they should be able to generate some offense again.

>>150131679
Id go Ravens tonight

>>150132046
>over 5.5 runs + mariners moneyline @ 1.86
bet365 won't let me parlay it

>>150132175
nevermind, i got it to go

I talked before about levels for players: bettors.
Fish
Goose
Diletante
Pro
Savant

And i wanna just explain how a savant plays. And a pro player. We're only gonna focus on the categories that are net positive.
A pro player has anything above sea level, say 300 euros profit so far.
But 10.000 € is where the savant stands with his bankroll.
And affors to put 200 on prematch. With early payout on mls. The fortune telling prematch
and then rebacks of 200 on the goal up to 1k. 10% a special stake. 1.000 €
So 200 prematch, up to 1000 reback on : the goal. But who to score? Your team at 1.30? No. Here is the trick. ANYONE to score. take both. Take both on FCSB to score AND TO CONCEIDE. @1.16
At 200€
Reback 200 @1.25, 200@1.33 , 200 @1.40, 200 @1.60
On OVER 1.5 GOALS TOTAL
And one red dot appears. From either side!
That's the beauty of it.
And it works every time 95% of the time. IF you're on the right games.
You basically bet late in the game. First half doesn't matter. First half can end with their 1 min of extra time. Second half is where it's at. You know that bet: which half has more goals. It's always second half. So late goals. You chase 1 more goal always, but you can also try overs pregame. Say 5+ @16
And chase live one more, or 2 more. Say crvena zvezda 0-1 novi pazar . Over 1.5 is @1.03, you try over 2.5 @1.22;
And wait two red dots.
Pro players are always in guerilla mode. All ins, and so on, invested in games. Savants don't care, it's all mechanical. And winning 9/10 games constantly. With losing bets no strategy works. There will be losses, but that's like at most 10% of your bankroll bro. A special stake.
Bet small and med until a special stake arrives. Bet anything, one more goal in second half. Begin the reback at 1.16
The best feeling in the world is having the lesser team scoring the 85th min puskas award nominee to secure your over 2.5 ;)

>>150127861
Zarazua won 2-1 despite losing the first set. Insane how bad Putintseva has been lately. Might just have to bet against her in every first round she plays for the next few tournaments.

Cincinnati picks for tomorrow:

Bellucci to beat Dzumhur @1.6

Lamens to beat Kudermetova @3.7

Gracheva to beat Volynets @1.8

Bronzetti to beat Zhu @2.3

I'll also follow the aussie on Sramkova.

>>150133553
One more last minute addition for today: Marozsan to beat Smith @1.55 also in Cincinnati.

Match should start very soon but I'm not sure when exactly due to the rain delay.

mariners blew it

PHEW might lay off baseball for a day or two been pressing my luck to its maximum

>>150133715
only if u took the runline

this is a potential meme bet that is very situational, and you might only have like 3 seconds to place it before the lines are closed. lets say theres is a guy pitching who doesnt walk many people. havent figured out an exact way to quantify this, but possibly looking at a pitcher who is around or under 2bb/9innings, or maybe in the top 20 of least walked batters. when it gets to a full count, 3-2, next pitch result strike/foul @ 1.86, the guy either fights to stay alive, or gets struck out, an ace isnt going to walk the dude here 55% of the time like the odds are implying. its a very situational bet, but there is value here compared to the actual statistics.

>>150128515
any 2 win might have potential me thinks. the 5 legger is going to lose.

Mboko is actually winning the final. Feel like an idiot not taking her to beat Osaka for these odds but I was worried about the potential injury. Got the future at least. Think I might have to take more tournament futures if I notice a player is overperforming.

>>150127880
Osuigwe is fucking terrible.

>>150135073
she blew my 5 leg but i'm not ready to put her on my list yet

>>150135212
Don't bet too frequently on her either. Obviously can't really be mad at an underdog losing but this was pathetic. Maria didn't even do anything.

>>150134912
By the way, Mboko plays Shnaider on Saturday in Cincinnati. Based on the Montreal performances I expect Shnaider to win this. Will keep an eye on the line movement and hopefully some money comes in on Mboko. There's also a chance of a withdrawal so don't want to go for it yet.

very odd line movement in this cruz azul v colorado rapids game. the moneyline odds for colorado rapids to win has gone back up from 2.10 to 2.25 despite the fact they are winning, while cruz azul or tie dropped from 1.66 to 1.53 even though they are losing and more time has past. cruz azul was a very heavy favorite before the game started @ 1.30 despite this game being dead rubber since neither team would have been able to advance even if they won.

My ravies won. I am fully locked in for da nfl season i VILL be a millionaire after it

im actually really tempted to take the patriots over 8.5 wins @ 2.00. they have the easiest schedule imaginable.

should win:
panthers
saints
browns
jets*2
giants

winnable:
raiders
steelers
falcons
dolphins @ home

difficult:
bengals
bucs
dolphins on the road

no chance:
bills*2
chiefs
ravens

that is 6 games against the leagues dumpster fires. they should win those. i get it you, cant just assume they win the games they are supposed to win and lose the games they are supposed to lose, but realistically speaking, they have like 4 games that are against a really good opponent, and then 13 other games against teams around their level to get to 9 wins. in other years the commanders and 49ers were able to take advantage of a very easy schedule, and have a mid tier unproven quarterback carry them to a 12+ win season. this could easily be the patriots and drake mayes year here.

Do not bet anything on Ashton jeanty other than him to fail. See what his under 1k yards is and bet that

>>150134860
2 are gonna payout at least

>ravens -4.5 cash
>Bengals +9.5 cash
>take all my gains and bet on seahawks -3.5
Im getting too old for thisytsp8

some cincinnati picks
do singles i'm just testing

Fiziev heems oliveira ez

this lost but i guess i'm the loser for following it with $5 but my next bet won $8 so happy days

don't even know why i'm betting greyhounds it's usually one i don't go near

>fall asleep
>horse i had my eye on wins with longshot odds
>didn't bet
Fuck.

>>150133654
Marozsan won 2-1 by the way. No clue why he wasn't a bigger favourite but I guess the scoreline actually was somewhat close.

>>150138081
Really like Sabalenka @1.4 and I wanted to take Kartal too but the line is so steamed it scares me. Don't even get what Garcia is doing here. She retired at RG and suddenly plays Cincinnati.

>>150139199
that's what i thought. i had to google it when i saw her, said something like "garcia retired at rg but will play a few more tournaments after that" so one of those "i'm not really retiring i'm just playing less retirements".

>>150139322
"i'm not really retiring i'm just playing less" retirements.*

>>150139322
Or just changed her mind because she isn't even that old yet. Kartal has a tendency to kind of choke in matches she should comfortably win so I'm staying away even though this should be a straight forward 2-0.

>>150139370
see what happens. it's part of my testing of combination multis.
now, danilovic smoked boulter and she's 2.70~ to beat raducanu. i'm going to wait until it's closer to match start but i might take that.

Johor DT - Selangor over 5.5 @5.00

>>150139528
Didn't really follow the match but not sure how much you can really read into beating current Boulter. Normally love fading Raducanu but I don't know if this is the right spot.

Kind of want to take Starodubtseva to beat Jeanjean @1.7 but it feels like a trap.

muller 2.15 vs. brooksby
walton 1.8 vs. navone
agut 1.55 vs. altmaier

I could honestly read programs and watch horse racing without betting. It's just that fun.

Redskins ml today
Change my mind

>>150142028
Betting on preseason seems like a bad idea.

>>150142028
most regular season starters probably wont even play a single snap in week 1 pre season

>>150142091
They seem to be invested at least yesterday games
>>150142136
I know thats why patriots starters are bad enough imagine their subs

Terrible summer for me boys 2023 and 2024 was lit now its terrible

>>150142251
Me too the jew are getting real greedy
I lost almost 100 dollars just this week

Literally going all in on #3 Harper City at Woodbine. I don't care.

>>150142623
It is quite literally without exaggeration over.

Anyta maxx wynn

Patiently counting down the days until my PayPal receives my next deposit money.

fenty a/king d

If the chiefs and eagles are both looking dominant week 1 they are going back to the superbowl

Falcons browns pats tonight

>>150133553
Adding one more for tonight: Krejcikova to beat Parks @1.4

>>150135723
By the way Mboko and also Osaka have both withdrawn from Cincinnati. Pretty much as expected. Sad because I would wanted to fade both of them.

kyle hendricks over 2.5 strikeouts @ 1.60

this seems like quite a generously low line. kyle hendricks has recorded 4 or more strikeouts in 8 of his last 9 road starts against AL central opponents (going back to last season). he faced the tigers back in may, in anaheim, went 7.1 innings, allowed 4 hits, 1 ER, 0BB, and 3K, and he got the W. kyle hendricks hasnt recorded a loss to a team with a winning record once this season. since the all star break, the tigers have the highest k% against righties in general, and at home. now skubal is a very very good pitcher putting up some of the best number of his career, but the moneyline here seems like a bit of a trap. the tigers are 0-10 against the angels following a loss, and the tigers have failed to cover the runline in each of their last 7 games against AL teams following a loss. the tigers do not bounce back well. conversely, the angels are one of the better teams as the books dog. the angels have won 7 of their last 8 games as the underdog following a home loss, and mike trout has hit a homerun against the tigers in 3 straight games. im not saying to bet on the angels here, but the tigers moneyline here is not as sure as the implied probability is making it out to be.

>>150145637
sorry an AL team with a winning record. the only team with a winning record he has lost to this year is the mets.

heres your meme stat of the day: the phillies have lost 10 straight in arlington, but are the slight favorite today against the rangers. the texas rangers are one of the better teams when playing at home, while the phillies are only .500 (28-28) on the road. this could be a game to go with the dog, but this also looks like a potential pitching duel.
under 7.5 runs @ 1.86, but maybe you have the guts to go with the dog @ 2.10

>>150145637
kyle hendricks strikes out the side in order, doesnt get any easier than that. bet already cashed out by the middle of the first.

>>150145637
tigers finished. they were a 1.35 favorite that are on the verge of not only losing but being badly out played. if you were insane enough to bet on the angels when they were down 3-1 you could have had them around 7.00 odds. thank god i didnt trust that line. what a screw job.

>>150125685
finally all resulted
won
won
won
won
won
lost
lost

won
lost

Betted 1 dollar on the 4th quarter for the falcons and the game is now running while the players are praying cause a rb hit another player in the head

W T F (i btw i betted on the redskins and was trying to recover my money with this one)

>>150147859

I needed the Lions to score a rushing TD, so naturally they throw the ball on the 1-yard line the drive before the Lions defensive player died. If that's not an omen for how bad this season is going to be for me, I don't know what is.

>>150147896
I fucking done with this jewish tricks
Yesterday the seahawks literally choose to pass the ball on the 4th and 1 in the 4th quarter with 4 minutes left, if they had at least kicked the ball they would've won.

>just one more bet before bed
always loses
at least the first bet of today made most of it back

>>150147859
Why didnt you bet the browns lol they have a full flight of qbs who want to make the roster against the Panthers. Go for the saints against the chargers, youre betting on player desperation in the preseason. Who actually wants to be on a team and who's coasting getting ready for the real season or the tank

>>150148296
I would but instead of the commanders but i got afraid for 2 reasons
1 the browns was awful last year
2 and the biggest was because i looked at a prediction bet site and they picked the panthers and the commanders

>>150148431
You dont know ball yet you put money on it lol why would you ever pick commies or Panthers here literally negative reasons to

>>150148499
I didn't pick the panthers cause they were also awful ,actually i thought it was too much of a wildcard for me to bet on after considering the above.

>>150148563
>i thought it was too much of a wildcard
And im saying it was set in stone lol do you understand

>>150148638
If you say so

>>150133553
>>150144817
3 wins and 2 losses in total. Bronzetti, Gracheva and Krejcikova all won 2-1. Lamens was completely hopeless and Bellucci kept it close despite being awful on serve but couldn't win either tiebreak. Sramkova won as well so thanks for that >>150147736


Picks for tomorrow:

Machac to beat Mannarino @1.5

Ito to win the first set against Pavlyuchenkova @2.3

Maria to beat Kostyuk @3.8

Normally don't bet on Maria, especially not on hard courts. But Kostyuk was dealing with a bad wrist injury in the match against Rybakina a few days ago and was forced to retire. Doubt it's been enough time to fully heal so surprised this match is even happening. Was expecting a withdrawal.

Currently 3/4 in memeseason det game got cancelled cause someone got heemed.
Tomorrow
Giants over bills
Vikes over tex
Rams over boys
Steelers over jags
Titans over bucs
Chiefs over cards
Jets over pack
Broncos over niners

Giants are free

kartal lost, she's going on my list. this'll payout even if sabalenka somehow loses.

loss/profit/loss on my combo tests, i think these could work for me.

>>150149150
Called the Kartal choke. Starting to think it might be better to take the first set with her most of the time. Did the same at Wimbledon. So many matches where she starts out strong and then loses control of the match in the second set.

>>150149198
Any picks for tomorrow? Im making a heil mary parley, any bets are welcome.

>>150149302
i'm going for danilovic 3.00 but it entirely depends on which raducanu shows up
to boost your odds slightly you could add
swiatek 1.05
keys 1.15
rybakina 1.06
others to consider
alexandrova 1.30
mertens 1.20
samsonova 1.40

also my jovic got in as a lucky loser and won at 1.60 but i was asleep for it

>>150149302
Dolidze by sub +1100
Stoliarenko by sub +730
Cerquiera by KO +800
Cachoeira by KO +1000

One of those will hit

Next week Aaron Pico is making his UFC debut after a disappointing Bellator career fighting cans. Inexplicably favored over an undefeated top 10 guy. I'm not telling you to bet the farm on Lerone Murphy +120, but get him before the market is aware and the line flips next week.

i was nervous as fuck waiting for the results

but it paid off beating my previous record of $311

won by about a length. nice clean win.

>promo restricted on MGM
>travel to different state
>no restriction
fuck you MGM. fuck you right in the ass

>>150155074
withdraw the 200 already you stupid kangaroo.

fucking belgian slurper

Insane how Ito keeps winning as an underdog over and over again. Might judt have to take her in every match until she loses.

>>150156133
200 is not enough to get drunk

took new zeland -5.5 vs taiwan fiba asia. saudi arabia -11.5 vs india was easy.

Casper Ruud is such a fucking bitch.

>>150157996
Genuinely stop betting on Ruud on hard courts unless they're super slow. He will always let you down.

thank you psv ht/ft

>>150148673
1 win and 2 losses. Ito didn't just win the first set but the whole match 2-1. Maria was absolutely atrocious. Obviously it was a longshot but I thought she would at least put up a fight. Laughable showing. Think I'm done with Maria on hard courts from now on. Speaking of being done with a player, this is also like the 5th time in a row Machac shits the bed when I bet on him. Think I need to reevaluate my opinion of him because he keeps underperforming as a favourite. Seems to constantly struggle with match fitness. Definitely staying away from Machac for the time being as well.

Good giants

>>150159054
Adding 2 more losses for the day:

Fonseca to beat Davidovich-Fokina @2.1

Sabalenka to beat Vondrousova @1.4

Also done betting Fonseca for the time being. That's like 3 people in one day which is probably a big overreaction but I keep thinking it's a good idea to give them another chance. Also need to stop trying to fade Davidovich-Fokina so badly. I still think he's not actually that good or consistent but he keeps winning.

>>150161395
Wasn't even trying to reverse jinx it because I genuinely thought the match had to be over at 4-0 with two breaks. Now it's 4-3 and Fonseca is on serve. Would be an insane comeback.

ADF's bitch ass retired lmao

>>150161689
Davidovich-Fokina got broken again at 4-4 and immediately retired before he even lost the second set. This would have been one of the craziest comebacks of the year for sure if they had played it out. Fonseca's live odds were like @25 when he was down 4-0 in the second set. Taking back what I said about Fonseca after this comeback but I'm still going to be careful about taking him as a favourite. Knew I was justified in trying to fade Davidovich-Fokina so much recently.

>>150161810
Crazy how quickly he retired. Basically the second he got broken he gave up.

>>150161874
Some dude turned $50 into $600, sniped Fonseca at +1100. Lucky fucker.

>>150161899
All retirements are pushes for me. But I have to say, haven't been this happy about a push in a while.

rams are winning the nfc

>>150163773
Anyone but squirts or dem boys.

>Ctrl+F Dildo
>no results
For shame.

>>150159581
Sabalenka won 2-0. First set was decently close but still never lost serve. Pretty generous odds. Vondrousova is not that consistent on hard courts and this is Sabalenka's best surface. 2 wins, 2 losses and a push in total for today. Could have been a lot worse. Picks for tomorrow coming in later.

>>150149379
danilovic lost
win
win
win
win
win
lost

both multis lost money but in my head some return is better than a full loss

cincinnati
svitolina 1.30
ostapenko 1.40
yastremska 1.30
noskova 1.50

risky
paolini 1.70
sramkova 2.30

very risky
bronzetti 3.70
wang 4.50

>>150163807
boys arent doing shit eagles rams again for nfc chip

Fade every fucking pasta monkey who is not Sinner in Tennis.

Okay chiefs. OKAY CHIEFS OKAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYU FUCK

>>150164027
maybe i was overestimating sabs but 1.40 felt way too generous. i'd have put her at 1.20.

>>150165089
Maybe not 1.2 but like close to 1.3 would have been more accurate I think. Vondrousova has given Sabalenka trouble in the past but not on hard courts.

>Tigers one leg hook me for second time this week
>Changed Steelers +5.5 to 49ers +7.5 for some reason and the 49ers have allowed 19 straight points and are losing by 11
>Have Vlad homerun but Blake Snell turned into Nolan Ryan (also changed Dodgers ML to the over at the last second)

I fucked myself over good tonight.

>>150148706
Almost made it with this too bad the titans decided to give up on the 4th quarter
Now im going to take a long break hopefully never to return to this vice

Piece of fucking shit team. Fuck you chiefs.

>>150164027
Picks for tomorrow:

Comesana to beat Darderi @1.7

Popyrin to beat Landaluce @1.3

McNally to beat Kessler @1.85

Sramkova to beat Linette @2.3

Jovic to win a set against Noskova @1.5

absolutely brutal call. second yellow on a nothing collision not even close to the ball. the fix is in. live bet the san jose earthquakes to win this game because they have the referee on their side.

>>150166841
bullshit penalty on the whitecaps now. guy just fell over wasnt even touched. the fix is completely in. hope you placed the bet.

>>150166841
thanks for the tip

kashiwa reysol @ 1.60
shonan bellmare currently winless in 8 straight league matches. they have the second leakiest defense in the j league, with 37 goals conceded in 24 matches, and 23 goals conceded in 12 away matches, giving them the highest average goals conceded on the road in the j league. with goals also coming at a premium, only scoring 20 goals in 24 matches, they are currently tied for 3rd least goals scored in the j league this season. shonan bellmare is currently in a three way tie for worst goal differential in the league at -17. if this wasnt bad enough, shonan bellmare's top choice goalkeeper, Naoto Kamifukumoto, was recently hurt with an achilles injury and will be unavailable for this match. kashiwa reysol is having quite a fairy tale run right now. so high in the table they might be having a bit of a nosebleed as they say. but im going to keep rolling with the hot hand here, and trust reysol to put away a struggling dog.

>>150166653
Adding Sevastova to beat Krueger @2.1 and Tjen to beat Marcinko @1.85 in the Landisville final.

saints phins tonight

>>150173429
>4th & Goal?
>RUN. IT. UP. THE. MIDDLE.
KWAB

Might be going crazy but can't shake the impression that Blockx will beat Nakashima. Too scared to go for it now but maybe if some other stuff ends up winning beforehand I'll take it.

Popyrin was struggling but thankfully still wins a really close first set in a tiebreak. Had to save 7 break points to even get there. Assuming he doesnt choke this away now he would play Rublev in the next round. Looks like a good spot to fade him. Rublev has been shaky himself lately but would definitely expect him to win in this encounter. Hopefully his odds won't be too low since Popyrin did well in Toronto and beat him twice in a row last year.

>Tigers hook me yesterday
>Guardians today
>Salvador Perez going 0-4 on his MLB debut anniversary just piles it on after Kerry Carpenter goes yard

I'd say hurry up NFL but it's also my worst sport.

>>150176351
You think Ugo can steal a set from Ben Shelton?

>>150178333
Not too impressed with his hard court game. Like the idea of fading someone who just won a tournament but don't think this is the right time. Think Shelton wins a close first set that looks winnable for Ugo Carabelli and then dominates in the second one. In the round afterwards he would play Bautista-Agut which might be a good spot to fade him. Think fatigue will catch up by then.

Khamzat is sick

Medvedev on the verge of losing to Walton. Swear I was eyeing it all day but talked myself out of it thinking I can't fade him all the time. Ridiculous how much he has fallen off even on hard courts. Runs out of steam and the service games are a struggle when he's not acing. Especially the second serves.

>>150179339
Lost 6-1 in the third set. Just gives up when he doesn't feel like playing anymore. Going to fade him every single time now if I feel like he might lose. Going to do it 3 times in a row at the USO and he will win all 3 matches comfortably so prepare for that.

>>150173868
Not going for Blockx anyway because with how everything went today he's going to lose in a quick 2-0 anyway.

>>150166653
>>150169387
2 wins, 4 losses and a push. Some dumb picks I regret in retrospect like McNally who was bound to run out of energy with all the court time in recent weeks. Only things that worked were Popyrin and Jovic to win a set. Jovic even won the whole match 2-0. Seemed like Noskova was struggling with the heat. Should be 3 wins because Darderi retired down a set and a break. Would have obviously lost 2-0. But that doesn't change that some of the other picks were pretty bad.

>>150180389
Picks for tomorrow:

Diallo to win a set against Sinner @5.7

Sabalenka to beat Raducanu @1.3

Ito to beat Keys @4.4

Realistically someone like Keys is the end of the road for Ito but I have to take this.

>>150180494
I have an idea. Do the opposite of everything the german anon posts.

>>150180719
Go ahead and fade everything I post. Fully admit I had a bad day today and it definitely wasn't the first bad day but if you pay attention I've also been sharing some actually good stuff lately as well.

>>150180719
Its still random he can win one day and lose the other
Not like the ncaaf guy last year that one was cursed he even stopped posting

>>150180956
>>150180996
Sorry. Its been a rough day for betting. I'm not upset at you.

>>150164813
still playing but probably a loss
void
won
lost (but as per my rules i bet on jovic so i won)

won
lost

won
lost

cincinnati:
sabalenka 1.30

slight risk:
rybakina 1.40
tauson 1.60

risky:
joint 2.30

might be nearing my stopping point for cincinnati

Off topic but what are your thoughts on Polymarket?

>>150182638
vig too highs0rxv

>>150182992
Vig?

don't like using phones but the app lets you see bets

>>150182638
What's your vig?

>>150167874
Thanks. Any baseball?

>>150183677
>>150183523

>>150183578
>10 Legs
>5 legs
>7 legs
>10 legs
Thats why you never win.

>>150183950
>implying i made $3250 worth of multis

bookie gave me $25 bonus cash for website issues, what shall i blow it on instead of making a bit of moolah?

>>150184627
judge 2+ HR

y'know 25 grand on 8 legs just seems needlessly complicated

more legs than two centipedes fucking

bonus lost but my cash monies won putting me at a new high of $363.75

$360 now i put more on sabalenka

Luckily Sabalenka is usually clutch in tiebreaks. That was a sweat.

some of these odds for baseball today are quite sketch. paddack has actually pitched twice against the whitesox this season already, and lost both games. first game of the season he was touched up pretty heavily, 9ER in 3.1 IP, and gave up 3HR. since the all star break the whitesox are top 3 in ops and wrc+ at home against right handed pitching. this is basically the complete opposite to their season average where they are bottom 3 in those stats. the tigers on the other hand are struggling quite a bit since all star break. this one might not be easy sailing for the tigers. yankees struggling quite a bit too, and the twins reactivated byron buxton off the dl today, probably a harder game for them to win than the moneyline is implying.

>>150190245
way too close but a win is a win

Stop betting on my horse.

going to parlay brewers + cardinals @ 2.27
two home favorites against dumpster fires you just know one of these guys are going to lay a huge egg here.

Rangers turn to sell me tonight. And of course it was fucking Eovaldi of all people.

>>150192303
phew rockies bullpen collapse saves me

patience is winning

>>150182595
sabalenka won (barely)
rybakina won (questionable at times)
waiting on tauson to play
joint lost

think i might be done with cincinnati now. 23 wins, 8 losses.

pafos fc is currently on course for their first ever champions league appearance and remain the only debutants left in the qualifying rounds. they are currently unbeaten in 7 straight matches across all competitions including pre season friendlies, and if you included matches from the end of last season, they are currently unbeaten in 13 straight. the ukrainian league has already started, and dynamo kiev played on friday, picking up a 1-5 away result against one of the leagues minnows. pafos did not play a match between the 2 legs. dynamo kiev is in a difficult spot because of the war. they havent transferred in or signed new players in 2+ seasons now, and the last few players they have signed were players from other clubs in the ukrainian league. to me, this line is set off a coefficient or elo ranking of the teams past performances, where dynamo kiev was once a team that could make it and even win a couple games in the group stage, but are nowhere near that level anymore, and pafos is in uncharted waters. the last year dynamo kiev made it to the actual group stage of the tournament was in 21/22. one thing to note here, this game will be taking place in Alphamega Stadium, limassol's homeground about 60km away, as pafos' stadium is too small for champions league matches. dynamo kiev is 1D 2L all time when playing in cyprus.

pafos fc or draw @ 1.66

apart from jovic 2.15 as per my rules

i bet on tsitsipas

>Rangers come back to win but Giants ruin it anyway
>Get Chisholm HR but hooked by Hunter Goodman
>Get Ben Rice HR but hooked by Riley Greene

I can push this streak to 50 straight losses if I try hard enough

me? few small wins, every dollar counts. tennis bets are covered. good night, good night.

>>150180494
Sabalenka won but Ito and Diallo predictably lost 2-0. Really need to start recognizing when a less experienced player is obviously starting to run out of steam. Did the same mistake with Holmgren at Wimbledon. But the Diallo bet was worth it for these odds. He should have won the second set. Had a set point on serve in the tiebreak but had to choke it of course.

>>150198046
Picks for today:

Rublev to beat Popyrin @1.5

Brooksby to win a set against Khachanov @1.6

Bautista-Agut to win a set against Shelton @2.3

Linette to win a set against Pegula @2.4

>A 2025 study from the University of California San Diego Rady School of Management found that only 4% of online sports bettors withdrew more money than they deposited over a five-year period

cant lose

13 wins 3 losses today. losses came near the end but i managed to recover with my last.

>>150198461
Give them nothing, but take from them EVERYTHING

>>150198078
grim. i wonder if people start out by losing a lot then improve slightly or the opposite

They introduced the "big stakes" category on superbet and one dude went several thousand euros on FC Bacau : double chance, handis, and to score 1 goal , against Poli Iasi, who relegated this year and seemed to have changed most of their squad. But Bacau however just promoted from the 3rd division.
Game is played in second division, starting in 25 mins

mariners moneyline @ 1.64

mariners have had 72 ABs against kremer before and have a .292 average, 7 HR, 15 RBIs
orioles have had 61 ABs against kirby before and have a .262 average, 3 HR, 4RBIs

george kirby is in good form, having pitched at least 6 innings in his past 4 starts, picking up the win and the quality start in the last 3. kremer has given up 6+ hits in each of his last 3 starts, giving up more earned runs in his last outing than kirby has in his last 3. although kremer got the no decision in 3 of the games, the orioles have lost the last 4 games that kremer started.

now baltimore does play in a pitcher friendly park, so there is a bit of risk betting against them at home, a small bet, not going all in on this.

brewers vs pirates - a run in the first inning - no @ 1.45

usually when its this low combined with a low over/under, its a very high chance. both teams aces on the mound, who both have over 1 strikeout/IP and a whip below 1.00. this game looks to be a pitchers duel between two of the leagues best.

>>150204455
these two pitchers did face each other earlier in the season, and it was a fairly close game at the start, but the game was in pitsburgh instead of milwaukee.

peralta 4.1 IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 3BB, 3K, 1HR
skenes 6.0 IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2 BB, 8K, 0HR

no run was scored in the first inning, but after the starting pitchers were taken out of the game, both bullpens gave up 8 runs.

Baseball fucking sucks jfc

kinda feel like keys 2.20 should beat current rybakina

>>150206348
I agree. Probably my main bet for tomorrow but haven't fully decided on anything yet.

>>150206753
my bookies bet tracker has like 80% of bets on keys including a $500 one so i'm just gonna take it

always the solo ride that fucks up my no run in an inning bet. even gayer way to lose than a pitcher giving up a few hits and scoring a run to a few base hits.

I only bet instore at the counter in person now after the bullshit betting sites have put me through. Anyone else?

>>150207089
elaborate

>>150204292
wasn't easy but came through

>>150197035
Top

>>150206017
>betting on a sport where there's more RNG than skill
lol lmao

>>150207257
On?

>>150207257
I'm trans and they are all anti trans

>>150207437
the bullpoop bookies have put you through

Underdogs saved me last week. Too bad Cerqueira couldn't get the KO +800, had Walker in bad shape round 3.

Saturday's card is SICK and I'm really looking forward to it. Even the fights I don't want to bet.

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev Saturday 8/16

>Battle -175 vs Ruziboev
Battle is a legit top 15 fighter IMO. He's a bit small for 185 but struggled so much to make 170 it's a good move up. Ruziboev is very tall but has a shorter reach. I don't see Ruziboev handling Battle's pressure well. He starts fast then gets held against the cage and loses a decision.

>Hernandez +240 vs Hooper
I don't believe in Hooper. People talking about him like he's a world beater. His UFC wins are against cans and formerly good, currently old fighters. Hernandez is faster, twitchier, and has a much better stand up game than Chase. Alex is fucked if he gets taken down in the 3rd, but I think he gets Chase out of there in the first 2 rounds.

>Klose +125 vs Barboza
Old man fight. Both guys have durability questions. Klose knows he can't stand and trade with Barboza, I expect him to close distance and clinch/cage hug his way to a boring W. Barboza has always struggled with pressure, he can't fight off his back foot and he gets stuck against the cage too much. Also taking over 2.5 rounds -166.

>Green vs Ferreira over 1.5 rounds -215
Old man fight, take the overs. Also taking fight goes the distance whenever the line comes out, should be around +150

>Andrade +115 vs Godinez
Loopy has awful fight IQ. She makes terrible decisions like choosing to stand and trade when she has a massive wrestling advantage. Andrade hits harder than anyone Loopy has faced. I like Andrade to do damage and win by KO/DEC. Loopy has several losses as a favorite in UFC. Add another.

1/2

>>150207461
If you win too much they will close your account or find reasons to demand all kinds of id and proof which is a pain in the arse to provide. There's many cases of this happening. I've read about it happening to other anons in the threads.

>>150207576
you have to verify your identity here before you can bet but it's all automatic and i had no problems

>>150207486

>MVP -195 vs Cannonier
If I priced this line I'd have MVP -300. This is a horrible matchup for Qanonnier. Rewatch Cannonier's title fight vs Izzy and try to justify betting him. Perfect matchup for MVP, uses his length and speed advantage to a frustrating 30-27 win

>Murphy +145 vs Pico
Feels like a bear trap. I'll still step in it. Undefeated UFC contender who has beaten legit opponents vs a career Bellator can crusher whose best win is someone you've never heard of. Pico has skills, someday he could be a great UFC fighter but this is too much too soon for a guy who has never faced a good opponent. Murphy avoids damage and wins 30-27 or finds a counter shot to put Pico away. Pico has been a bit chinny at 145.

>Chimaev vs Du Plessis FDNGD -360
Worth its own bet. I'm putting as much on this as the rest of the card combined. -360 is a 78% probability, this is a 90% finish IMO. I'm making a hedge with over 1.5 rounds -182, possible middle.

>Chimaev ITD -137
ML is -250. I don't see enough equity in a decision to justify paying the extra price. Khamzat wins inside 2 rounds or he gets finished in the 3rd/4th.

Will keep an eye on props as the week progresses and prob post a few more bets.

>>150207576
>>150207610
I've been limited in certain sports/smaller leagues. I wasn't even betting a lot. Shit is annoying. Only once at a retail sportsbook did they have to call the traders to get approval for a $500 bet on some obscure shit

i'm banned from bet365 which is supposed to end on october 1st but i read once they ban you they don't care and generally won't give your account back after your time is served

>>150207610
A few years back bet365 locked my account and either wanted to see my ID and credit card in person, in the uk, or to be sent a letter from my bank which they straight out wouldn't do for me. I was up I think 30 or 40% on my original stake when they did that.

They can pull this shit on you at any time.

I've had another account on unibet get locked for even getting up 50% on my original stake.

You never hear about this shit happening to someone who's losing and shoveling cash in regularly to top up. I was grinding my bankroll and they hate that shit. They want you doing longshot parlay dumbfuck shit.

>>150207731
Were you up when they did it?

>>150207911
i was down $30 which is what perplexes me. i don't think i was ever profitable on 365, i only had my account for like a month.

>>150207946
I've read stories from other anons of them being even more dickish and arbitrary with rules when you want to get paid out too. I'm pretty sure it's part of the business model at this point.

2 relatively big bets today pushing me over $400

they both came 1st but let's not be risky

Horse betting is madness, I don't know how you do it

>>150208660
i've only been doing horses for 6 months but watching races and looking at forms everyday and so on is starting to get me into a good rhythm of what to bet on and what to avoid. greyhounds are chaotic as fuck but i've also been having a decent run at those.

>>150208728
I've tried to track form but never got anything more than a show bet to hit. Horses are just weird, some get spooked by wet turf, big crowds, having the wrong horse next to them... I like horses but I would never seriously bet on them again. Going to the track is fun though.

>>150208873
my nearest track is about a 35 min drive away but it's a classy one that has clothing regulations and i don't own a suit or some shit like that

swiatek/sabalenka/keys multi for 2.50

any odds lower than 1.40, you are really playing with fire. its a fake sense of security because with these odds you dont just need the heavy favorite to win, you need them to be in complete control from the immediate start of the game, and for the dog to never even have a foot in the game. its not enough for just the heavy favorite to win, you need them to completely wipe the floor with the underdog. as soon as the underdog is able to just hang around for a bit, the odds start moving heavily against the favorite. if this was tennis for example, 1.12 odds for sabalenka to win, if she doesnt immediately break maneiro, and takes a 2-0 lead right out of the gate, the odds will move heavily against sabalenka, even though shes likely to still win in straight sets. you have to stop yourself from thinking that these coffin odds are an easy way out because in some ways this will be an even more stressful bet than just betting on a slight underdog to pull off an upset.

brewers @ 1.50
this one has regression to the mean written all over it, but im going to keep rolling with the hot hand, and say the brewers make it 11 straight wins.

austin gomber is an absolutely god awful pitcher, but the cardinals bats are hard to trust. they have been shut out by the rockies twice this season. i would consider 2 game parlay of cardinals + brewers, but cardinals bats arent reliable, even against shitty pitching. brewers + cardinals @ 2.18 if you are feeling bold.

>>150209751
BASED

>>150209288
Good post

made it to $458
lost $8
put $50 on something now
if it loses i'll withdraw the remaining 400 and take a break

we continue

>>150210101
What website is it anon?

>>150210242
i use ladbrokes for all my degenerate needs

>Red Sox on Saturday
>Guardians on Sunday
>Giants on Monday
>Rangers on Tuesday

I'm feeling like it'll be the Phillies to break my heart today.

>>150198059
Rublev won a close 2-1 and Linette won the first set against Pegula. Match isn't actually finished yet due to rain delays but that doesn't matter for the bet obviously. But Brooksby was a miserable failure. Been getting burned too much trying to fade Khachanov lately. Underestimated his current form and stamina. I still think he's going to run out of energy but at this point I'm not going to bet against him anymore until potentially the US Open. Still waiting on the Shelton match by the way since that got moved due to the rain. The extra day of rest probably helps Shelton unfortunately.

Not sure how much the rain is going to affect today's schedule but still locking in my picks anyway:

Comesana to win a set against Rublev @2

Keys to beat Rybakina @2.2

Khamzat gets Xposed this weekend
>who has khamzat actually fought
>usman on two weeks notice wins 2 out of 3 rounds but lol 10-8 meme first round
>almost heemed by burns
>sepsis jaw Whittaker who's completely washed and just kwabbed to that shitter rdr

Craiova won 3-0 at home and for tomorrow's return leg Superbet boosted odds on them to qualify from 1.04 to... 2.00 ; users are able to wager from 50 ron to a max stake of 250. I'm able to wager 250. It's good to see i've managed to hold my account on the VIP status