>>150578785 (OP)
Group winners are placed before other teams, so you have group winners of NL A before group winners of NL B (including England ;^)) etc. before group winners of NL D.
(including San Marino). And since many of better ranked teams are strong and will either qualify directly or place second in the group, San Marino has a good chance to go to the playoffs, but I don't think it's 70%