>>212331004I always imagined the Confederacy would have turned out in the long run as a slightly warmer, poorer, and browner version of Canada. Existing in the United States of America's shadow, but nonetheless militarily and geopolitically aligned with it due to the shared cultural heritage of the Anglosphere.
As bloody as the debate over slavery got, it would have fallen apart by the end of the 19th Century regardless of which side won. And by the midpoint of the 20th Century, the fundamental threat that aggressively expansionist and anti-democratic powers like the Soviet Union, Imperial Japan, and Nazi Germany posed would have eventually pushed North and South back into the same bloc.
Also, it would be economically and politically dominated by Texas. A Confederate California if you will. If anything, it would Virginia and Tennessee getting mad at their ever-increasing irrelevancy.