>>714290045 (OP)
DK has no chance, the modern audience and gaming journalist hate platformers, Astro Bot only won last year because it was a weak year, it was full of nostalgiabait and Sony shilled it to hell and back.
>>714292061
because the jurnos have a bunch of nintendo fanatics, I tried to look up the preview of bananza and one of the 1st recommend was a channel named "Nintendo life".
This shit is rigged beyond belief
>>714293715
I actually think that metacritic alone, isn't what determine the winner.
The public opinion seems to have an influence as well, Sekiro and GOW 2018 winning seems to show this.
Having said that, E:33 is also clearly the public favorite as well, and only Donkey Kong Bananza can rival this amount of support because tendies are tendies and will claim 'best game ever' at any 7/10 Nintendo releases.
>>714290045 (OP)
In terms of likelihood
Expedition 33 > Bananza > Death Stranding >>>> KDC > Split Fiction > Nightreign
That said. You forgot all about Silksong contending.